Member Info for wahlberg

Good turn today with 360 paid into close. Looks like the upward trend channel is well and truly in place. Big bullish candle today, could see a move to 520/530 now. Bargain.

Maintain our PE ratio of 33 and that's an sp of 1023p*

In terms of share price appreciation consider this, Year ending Jun 16 Profit before Tax - £1.3m Shares - 12.57m Share price - 345p Earnings per share - 10.3p Price/Earnings ratio - 33 So the PE ratio is around about the benchmark. But what about the growth ahead!? Haris Chaudhry states that the growth story has just begun. Assume PBT increases by 200% to £3.84m (approximately £20m sales with margin improvements). That's Earnings per share of 31p. Maintain our PE ratio of 31 and that's an sp of 1023p May not be too difficult with everything happening now!

Lush had turnover in the year ending Jun 16 of £394.9m, PBT £43.2m (10.9%), 820+ stores. Innovaderma are expecting turnover in the year ending Jun 16 of £9m, PBT £1.3m (14.4%) excluding one-offs (moving production to UK). Two different business models. Lush relies primarily on a bricks & mortar estate operating under their brand name and absorbing all associated costs. Innovaderma forgo that overhead burden by focusing on their DTC platform and supply to other retailers. I'd expect Innovaderma's cost base to remain low and margins to improve, particularly with the move into the Hair Loss/PE markets (eg. 90% margin on £250 Prolong devices). NP%, ROCE etc should all be better. Let's not forget also that we are tapping into several multi-billion £ markets. Bronzing, skin brightening and anti-ageing, skin care, cosmetics, hair loss, PE, etc. What's next? If we take the bronzing market alone, our UK sales of ST are approximately £7m p.a. and growing rapidly. This is in a £60m market. The US market is closer to $1bn (13-15x the size). If we replicate the success across the pond, that could be £100m+ on the top line. The skin brightening market is 23-25x the size of the bronzing market. Relative success could mean hundreds of millions. Starts adding up doesn't it? The company are demonstrating their ability to create speed and scale. NYX cosmetics achieved sales of $93 million in 2013 and was acquired by L'Oreal for $500m. Stevie K could be the next star.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/835295/hair-regrowth-loss-roots-brands-InnovaDerma/amp

The launch begins with the DTC platform available to Australian customers, then a wider roll out to UK/Europe/US. The UK stockist is from the old range - I'm sure they'll be updating the website again shortly.

The website is now live!

DTC platform launches today, looks like activity on the homepage. Roots should be in Superdrug stores this week or next - I'll keep popping in to check.

Bear in mind Skinny Tan started off small in superdrug in terms of shelf space and then quickly commanded an entire bay. Expect similar at Boots IE as the products drive footfall,

You could listen to the Voxmarket podcast with Haris Chaudry as well as the ProactiveInvestor interview. He makes a comparison to FeverTree, in that there is really no intellectual property in soft drink - it is all about branding and perception and being able to execute a distribution strategy. In terms of a USP, SkinnyTan claims to hide cellulite through the use of guarana. It applies streak free without the biscuit-smell of many competitor products. None of this is protected. The company success is through it's marketing (described as a paradigm-shift), social media campaigns etc. Being able to deliver scale and speed with low customer acquisition costs. Look at the opportunities/extensions generated through Skinny Tan - Body Glow, Skinny Tan Salon Effects, etc Products which generate customer footfall and pave the way for more deals and shelf space for InnovaDerma brands (such as Roots in Superdrug)

Now - Sep •Relaunch of Skinny Tan in AUS/NZ; •Launch of Skinny Tan Salon Effects Spray in Superdrug and online (DTC); •Launch of Body Glow Milk Spray; •Launch of Stevie K (Announced twice as the "Best New Aussie Beauty Brand") in AUS/UK via DTC, other markets shortly after; •Launch of Roots haircare in Superdrug and DTC, European markets shortly after; •Update following July launch of Skin Brightening and anti-ageing product portfolio in Korea (600 stores, initially); •Leimo Headmaster FDA approval; •Final Results (Sep 13) (Rev +80%, PBT +355%); Now - Dec •Launch of Prolong in US (w/ substantial cross-selling and cross-border sales and distribution collaboration opportunities (eg. Leimo Headmaster)), AUS/Europe shortly after; •Launch of Leimo Headmaster (Hair loss); •Launch of Charles+Lee skincare, internationally; •Launch of further Body Glow products; •Further etail/Retail distribition deals; •Further acquisitions, brand/product extensions;

This is the next big growth story. Hold for gains like Boohoo, ASOS, FeverTree

Which? You're not talking about "The growth story has just begun" are you?

Because it is way oversold and only £40m mcap with 8 brands and incredible growth ahead?

I said it could bounce hard!

Yes but what happens when an RNS drops with m distribution deals with Sephora, Target, Urban Outfitters etc. Or the July trading update with sales from new channels Boots, Asos... Skin Brightening in Korea.. etc. It could be 50/60/70p up at the blink of an eye

Who are you trying to blame? I said watch out for the bounce, not that it was definitely happening at that level.

Watch out for the bounce here, it could be dramatic. Skinny Tan sales growth is dramatic. Look at the success of interest through Boots IE within days - 70k views of their FB video. Next trading update we'll see the impact + London Beauty School + Asos + Feel Unique etc. DTC growth is huge. Spray tan artists to the stars in Hollywood are using Skinny Tan! Stevie K launches in 7 days which will be "significant". Speed and scale. Roots launches in August Skin brightening in Asia Charles+Lee relaunch Global distribution network, 4 continents Unbelievable buy.

Stevie K launches in 11 days. Roots rolled out to Superdrug in a couple weeks Speed and scale.

RayG bought 5713 on Friday. He didn't wait long..