Member Info for Voiceofreason1

As to the discussion on dates of results - ENQ moved them back as they were all over bloomberg to be start Sep (up until about 2 weeks ago )

I think jp story and their target price doest matter - i see they put in note they prefer harbour to enquest but EnQ’s biggest issue is it’s just so illiquid really - there are no new buyers out there which means we see big moves when sells come into market (even small ones) but no corresponding rise when there are buyers

No one in right mind buys into a nearly microcap with no chance of a massive upside when the whole area is in a funk

As to tories and their ‘new approach’ i just dont see it being impactful - the oil sector in uk should be advertising as a block the simple stat that importing oil from us or middle east is up to 10 times more carbon producing than uk production (and liable for disruption due to autocratic leadership in them) and we keep the tax revenues and the jobs

It is not green to import oil - its lunacy

Kraken i’d also add that - yes they gave a lot of those shares to the staff BUT they would have created them otherwise - the buyback clearly decreased net supply of shares

The biggest thing i’d like to know is did we hedge a decent chunk of oil in the high 70’s? Obviously the world and their dog thought would go higher so not obvious we would have done loads but be very interested in an update on that!!!

I think this is simply overthinking things personally

Simple fact we import (increasing) gas and oil from regimes we cant trust and (this is key) are more polluting than north sea alternatives

Thats it in a nutshell - so basically the gov either bans hydrocarbons or we drill them here for less carbon emissions and less reliance on weird world situations - and i count US in this as well as gulf states (have not even factored in shipping pollution)

Thats the hard hitting line - discouraging north sea activity is actually worse for net zero/planet

As soon as anyone starts questioning net zero on science you lose 99% of people imo - dont bother

Flex i hold both stocks (more in ENQ for full disclosure) but to be honest i think the news flow during the offer period clearly favoured ENQ - ie diversification away from Europe and also the simple addition of a large new contract in Indonesia in Asia added to the above point and SQZ actually had a decent miss in same period

I suppose it will come out in the wash but yes short term i see the point on SQZ (i do love a good divi yield) but medium and long term wise i think new exploitable reserves in friendly regions (and specifically not UK given policy direction) favour ENQ.

But i am no Magic Meg - so will have to see if i am right :)

I have to say i was initially quite keen on the combination but seems clear from the reading of it that SQZ basically didnt agree with ENQ having any added value from their recent purchases in Asia and also the award of that big contract from Indonesia.

So i think right call from AB to simply say ‘no thanks’ as geographic diversity and large new exploitable finds are bound to be accretive (especially as UK simply seems deadset against actually providing the fossil fuels that even greens admit they’ll need in the medium term)

So as a shareholder of both SQZ and ENQ i do believe i am being balanced in saying it was right for ENQ to terminate the discussions

Thoughts?

I see Serica thrn got smashed post that announcement - think as the target there were some arb players buying target and selling acquirer (enq) - be interesring to see what happens to EnQ price now - today mostly due to it officially trading ex - so think next week will be interesting

Right back from hols - world falling apart i see

2 points from me

1. Name your charity steve i lost fcf bet - i mean in my defence i followed the base analyst assumptions across all coverage and then took a haircut off but it is what it is!!! (I am an equity trader that trusts analysts - definition of an optimist there)

2. The whole ramping/negative discussion - bores me nearly as much as blaming ‘algos’ for stocks not performing well - hate to break it to you all but this board doesnt matter in any way to share price - i have seen buy and sell orders cross my desk for 10 times the biggest holder on here and they dont ever say ‘check the ENQ chat’ - kraken you are 100% too emotional and positive on this stock day to day but hey, i own a shed load so i hope you have your day!!! Steve is too pessimistic in my view but kraken think it makes any difference to the stock moving? That would be a waste as i mention above

All just my own opinion

My specific point of interest (selfishly) is the bonds - which i have a decent chunk of- as you would expect those to start trading at a premium (if deal happens)

I am almost positive after reading the SQZ press release that it will be 50/50 terms but serica shareholders will then receive a (as stated in release) surplus payment. As a holder of both i am fine with that - i expect the sqz payment to then be pretty substantial

Valuation is interesting - ENQ debt super manageable but the heft of the SQZ balance sheet is a draw

Saying that i worry a little that SQZ on a comparable basis to ENQ is over valued (i hold both fyi) as a ukraine russia ceasefire and trump getting his mate putin off sanctions would result in a huge drop of gas prices which would change any valuation of SQZ dramatically

Clearly AB (and Cox) will be fully aware of this)

All this negativity on the chat has made me want to buy - going to add a bit over next while

Lets see if i am Buffet or baffoon :)

Am i being dense or are we missing a buyback announcement this morning?

More mundanely - i’d be interested to see what our buyback is today - normally we dont buy on updays but i would love to see if we are getting more aggressive

Will be very interested in the buyback volume today - should be sizeable and potential sellers being removed alway a net positive

I do understand steve’s points on why do they raise 10m more but to be honest i dont know the covenants on the original loan compared to the HY notes which seem pretty obligation free. We are also in the dark on what the back channel convo was when they raised that cash ie ‘we will give you 2027 on the loan but expectation is we get it back sooner if possible’.

The other point on the difference on 12.73 (4.83 plus 7.9) and the roughly 1.5% less they pay taking into account the issue at premium is clearly meaningful in interest rate terms but on 150m?? Not so sure

Interest rates clearly are looking downwatd but i suppose might be some residual worry on point of trump presidency as with all the tax breaks and new spending (plus tariffs on china which would punch up prices in US) he’s talking about that would reverse the inflationary needle pretty sharpish

But in sum i do agree its weird given the positive cash on balance sheet (again in agreement with steve)

Does all point to a purchase being announced soon (if i am right in covenant terms or even just background convos with investors in that offering)

Lets see i suppose

Rom the debt issued before was sofa(4.8ish) plus 7.9% so this is a marked reduction and i would guess the company prefers the bknds they are now issuing as they can buy them back more flexibly

I know some people veer onto morbid or downright shouty behaviour on this chat but buy backs are starting to clip along (we’ll certainly reload more into next year) - the news trajectory is upwards in 2025 especially

Oil seems to be an over-reaction (massive surplus yet draws keep happening and the spr is nowhere near ok level-wise)

So buy if you can or hold if you are not desperate for money and do what i do - dont look at share prices and chatboards everyday

Stupmy - i’ll have a bash at your question - 60m shares would definitely have an impact - you can say 3% of company but our stock is super slow and this year especially the volumes have been terribe - for example if we extrapolate today we’d be 60% of market volume if we did our assigned daily target for rest 2024

Now i very much doubt mls would ever do that (dependant on what ABs instructions were and market regs) but my trading feeling is a million share buy or sell order hugely swings our stock so in short a big buyer has a large impact (and we are in the respect of ENQ trading a big buyer!!)