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'Italy would be c. €11.6Bn on top of Vantage €10Bn, Hungary, egypt, uk'
If Etisalat are indeed after the Brand, that has been valued at c$19.25Bn and ranked the 8th most valuable telecoms brand in the world according to this source
https://www.statista.com/statistics/500110/vodafone-telecom-brand-value/#:~:text=Vodafone%E2%80%99s%20brand%20value%20fell%20by%20slightly%20more%20than,billion%20U.S.%20dollars%20to%2021.83%20billion%20U.S.%20dollars.
Italy would be c. €11.6Bn ontop of Vantage €10Bn, Hungary, egypt, uk.... news says niel favours consolidation and network separation. Div in november while FED/ ECB plays out. Debt repayment schedule is weighted to medium long term imho
'2.5 % Xavier niel
10% Etisalat
Cevian ?'
Cevian strategy is to hold €0.5bn to €1.5bn of a company but sometimes higher. As VOD holding is undisclosed, I guess 0.5%+. Niels stake likely more influential but not as influential as Etisalat..imho
Dan, I think vantage was originally valued/ ipo c€12bn, hence using €10bn as a strawman for vod share . Of course only the auction will establish a number to accept or reject. As to what's in the SP currently,..well that's not the sum of the parts otherwise we would be back up at 180 or 200 imho
The recovery still intact and the trajectory up. The distribution of proceeds spread a little more around future proofing which makes sense given the 360 opportunity and protecting employee benefits/ pensions. Agree the messaging is more conservative but on the face of it could turn on a sixpence to 'over deliver' in 2023
'Of all the disposals VOD could do, selling the 80% left of towers is the worst.'
Interesting. They would avoid the capex and return on investment risk and pay a higher access price for own use. So how would the terminal value of cost savings from disposal compare with, say, the sale of Italy and avoiding spectrum costs etc.
I agree VOD got lots of options but a deal in the hand is worth 2 in the bush ..
'opportunity that bigger players had knowledge or influence on how all this would / could play out ?'
My thought is UAE want the brand, and that could be the partner markets model. Cevian want a simpler operating model, so that means disposals . Disposal of all VODs share of vantage or only part will be telling imo
As a starter, sp will be much higher in 6 months imo.
Interest rate rises washed through
Asset/ business sales done _ Vantage, Egypt, Hungary, maybe uk jv or sale
Inflation indexed price increases executed
Macro trade in goods according to FedEx is weak in asia but service revenues locked in contracts and growing in europe etc
Dividends look safe in the short term with so many positive options
Thanks all. Dont forget, HMRC ultimately get a % as tax.
If you have £100k in your pot and draw it down in one go, you could pay 40% or 55% tax. So, if you are feeling glum about VOD SP performance, which do you prefer? Pay £50k to HMRC or sit on £50k paper losses until you actually need to drawdown...aimo
Robleo, the big psychology is moving from a working lifetime of accumulation to a retirement lifetime of decumulation. As soon as inflation is under control it will look better. Impossible to drawdown and grow the pot when inflation is 10%+ over a period of time imo so maybe hold 3 or 6 months cash to drawdown on and stop looking at the pot. Can still have a flutter on spread betting/ day trading but not the whole pot imo
Be surprised if VOD want a 3rd party to control access to its customers in europe. Sell a minority stake more likely. But Cevian pushing for simplicity so the w.hole lot could go at the right price!
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/977212/vodafone-mulls-vantage-towers-offers-from-private-equity-report-977212.html
interest rates are going up but so are prices/ inflation. VOD got a good handle on costs imho
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/07/uks-broadband-firms-set-for-17bn-windfall-with-above-inflation-price-rises
'The most realistic scenario here is of a further tight trading pattern till the next Trading Update, or debt clearance RNS'
I would add 365 sale and a major contract win also have high probability in short term imho
If we dont see a major contract win I think Lewis will move on and a post transformation ceo appointed