Member Info for VladamirPokrov

nholland If you look at Faroes long term chart and consider the developments there is plenty more to go with their pipeline. The others I don't know much about, size would be an issue for me, partly as i have always been cautious of nano caps, partly because i would struggle to build a meaningful holding easily now, location of ops also another factor. Wrongly or rightly I would see them as higher risk. Vlad

Nick Thanks for that, thought i might know you from times past, but I don't. I really want the extra 25% on all my Ithaca before I go, one of the major holders has indicated that this is the price, Faroe, Plexus and Petrofac look very good. Plexus is small and illiquid and consequently very volatile but a remarkable outfit - IC and Malcy cover extensively - coped with the downturn very well Plexus' balance sheet is a thing of great beauty, amazing client base, highly respected technology and just look at the 5 year chart, whilst the chart is always a very secondary thought, linking it to to the fundamentals Plexus should multi-bag on recovery. Vlad

Delek already holds a 19.7pc stake in Ithaca and its takeover bid marks a second major move from the Israeli conglomerate to deepen its presence in the North Sea after snapping up 13.8pc of Faroe Petroleum in a £42.8m late last year. Delek boss Asaf Bartfeld said that if the bid is successful it will firmly establish the group as a global exploration and production company. “The Ithaca transaction will substantially strengthen our international operational arm, and is a synergistic step to our existing activities. We believe Ithaca will contribute to our continued growth and we look forward to reinforcing and building on our status in international markets,” he added. Shareholders are expected to receive a full proposal by the end of next month and will then have 35 days to respond. This bid is appalling. Ithaca's management are blatantly failing to represent shareholder interests by recommending this bid. Ithaca are about to announce a more than doubling of production levels: are about to become one of the lowest cost oil producer in the North Sea: will establish a cental hub with FPF-1 into which numerous of Ithaca's surrounding oil fields can be fed at very low development and production cost in a recovering oil market. The forward earnings/cash flow multiples for Ithaca is absolutely tiny. A 10% bid premium is ridiculous, this bid is never going to go through at anything like this level.

Telegraph Delek bid to buy Ithaca Energy in $1.2bn deal sparks shareholder protest Acash takeover bid for Ithaca Energy by its largest shareholder Delek Energy has sparked a shareholder protest just weeks before the start of production at its cornerstone North Sea project. The takeover, which values Ithaca at C$841m (£517m), has the unanimous approval of the board but has also drawn criticism from a minority shareholder who claims the deal undervalues the company ahead of a boom in oil volumes from its Greater Stella field. Including debt, the deal is worth $1.24bn (£1bn). Ithaca’s shares climbed over 10pc to 119.2p in London this morning after Delek won over the Canadian oil company with its C$1.95 or 120p a share offer, well above the target price pinpointed by analysts at C$1.60. Shareholders may be about to miss out on the ride of their lives Industry commentator Malcolm Graham-Wood Ithaca’s chairman Brad Hurtubise said premium proves the deal is an attractive opportunity for all shareholders to crystallise the company’s improving fortunes after a difficult two-year downturn. Ithaca reported a pre-tax losses of $60.6m for the first six months of 2016 but in the last year its shares, which are listed in Toronto and London, have climbed over 500pc in line with slowly rising oil prices and heavy cost cutting. But Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Ithaca’s fourth largest shareholder Cavendish Asset Management, has strongly urged stakeholders to reject the offer. "I anticipate lots of potential deals in the future – Ithaca’s shares have been as high as 140p a share in the past and with a further rise in oil price it could go even higher, meaning this acquisition would be relatively cheap, and Delek Group will see good payback in a short space of time. “With a market cap of approaching £500 million I believe Ithaca has considerable long term potential so investors who are bullish of the outlook for oil prices should sit tight,” Mr Mumford added. Industry commentator Malcolm Graham-Wood said shareholders “may be about to miss out on the ride of their lives” as oil companies begin to reap the benefit of lower costs and rising oil prices. Ithaca chief executive Les Thomas said the company’s management has worked very hard to get the Ithaca through what has been a difficult year for oil companies but insisted that this is the peak time to sell before production begins. Mr Thomas added that the board has not had any discussions with Delek about the future of the company’s management but does not expect job losses for the company as a whole to be a concern. image: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2017/02/06/stella-large_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bqek9vKm18v_rkIPH9w2GMNoAUi_eAXJmjTzXoJ-uDM54.jpg Ithaca Energy's Greater Stella oil field is expected to double the company's production volumes when it starts up next month CRE

Muppetalpha What effect would the event driven buyers have? Lobbying against the deal or is it possible that the share price could rise above the bid price is that likely or even possible do you think? Vlad

How long would it take for Delek to respond once it becomes clearly is going to be resisted by major holders as seems likely over the next day or two? My limited experience of takeovers is that Delek will canvass the major shareholders to establish the price required for them to sell then revise the bid accordingly and that all this could take place within the week. Any thoughts on this. Vlad

nholland Faroe is the stand out option, but should make steady progress, this bid could go up 25% very quickly once we see how the land lies. I am curious, what does the prefix 'n' stand for if you don't mind me asking. Vlad

I agree Keith, all looks awful for the management. Ithaca management are now subservient to Delek thinking of their future roles and compensation packages, no longer representing shareholders that is clear. Turning to Delek what is their thinking? Interesting to see a lot of Canadian posters saying they should hold out for $2.25 to $2.50, approx £1.35 to £1.50 equivalent. By bidding low Delek have lowered expectation already, few would have been content with £1.35 to £1.50 24 hours ago. We may end up having to walk away from this at about £1.50 here, which is in itself poor in light of likely future returns, worth waiting around for that though as this will unfold fairly quickly, £1.20 is not going to happen, I feel confident of that, if Delek are serious they won't want to draw in other bidders so a higher offer/s could come quickly so long as all the leading shareholders hold the line which they will at this sort of price. Vlad

Ignore IC on this one, they tend to be very conscious of their legal exposure re any advice given in these situations and so cover their backs by saying accept, I remember when I was staying in Sarlat France in 2013 when the initial bid for Kentz came in, I fell out with them big time when their advice was similar to this, luckily that initial bid failed. Watch the response from institutional shareholders. Small investors, myself included, tend to have a dim view of fund managers seeing them as unable to identify value in the market and to seeing a 10% lift as payday regardless of the underlying value, for the most part this is a fair description of fund managers. However, not fund mangers who bought Ithaca, they are bold and can see value opportunities otherwise they would not have invested, they are not going to be content with this. Also, do not underestimate the influence of Malcy on the fund managers, he is no Bertie Wooster, his view is the most influential in the sector and he is unequivocally saying no. He is approaching cautiously now while being very clear on his view, expect him to turn on the Ithaca management with considerable toxicity in the next 48 hours, quite rightly so. How can Ithaca management on the brink of first oil advise accepting a bid 10% ahead of the current price and claim that this is in the interest of shareholders? This is far from over. I will remain fully invested to assess analyst and larger shareholder views over the coming days. Vlad

Les and the management clearly want us to accept, it has made worth their while, this bid is low enough for management to be legally vulnerable now in accepting. Delek bid, Ithaca recommend acceptance, makes it sound like a done deal. But hold on, Delek probably only have 30% of the shares at this point, they do not own the company, this cannot be forced upon the shareholders like this, it is not a done deal until the majority of the owners agree, we are the owners. Les, I would remind you that you have a legal obligation to act in out interests - we know forward production, we know the oil price will rise, we know your costs, this price equates to a forward PE of a little over 1, you are ripping us off and the we know it, you will not get away with this, ripping off long supportive Ithaca shareholders, please release details of your severance package/future pay etc under Delek, we need to see the full picture here because something stinks. Vlad

Natdan I am no expert on takeover mechanisms. I am certain however that this bid is well out of order - just one the eve of production, the company is clearly worth well over £1.50 at this point in time - for a cheeky bid from Delek at this point I would have expected at £1.50 plus - even that would have been controversial. The fact that Ithaca management appear to back the bid is astounding - if they had decent share holdings they would not be doing so, I am certain that Delek have 'incentivised' them to accept this. A low ball offer 10% above the current share price on the eve of doubling production in a recovering market is a management/bidder stitch up no doubt, management are clearly not acting in shareholders' interest here. At the end of the day if the big holders go for it, it will go through, if they don't it won't, I think they will hold out - sit tight for now, I suspect IC and Malcy et al will slam this bid - I am waiting for now, I think that the bid will likely have to be revised from here, significantly. Londoner 7 and Doubler, your thoughts please. Vlad

I read the same article. The emphasis was that renewables are progressing faster than most had anticipated, which is true. There was an absence of timescales in the article but the current assumption that renewables won't have any discernible impact for a decade and a half was being challenged, again I agree with this. Nothing however is going to prevent the oil supply shortages from 2019 as the delayed tsunami of post 2014 under investment finally reaches the shore. It is a good thing that so many misplaced bearish oil arguments dominate the news and discussion, consider: 1. Shale will recover - of course it will but not enough to cover depletion and under investment for the remaining >90% of oil sources, not to mention medium term demand growth and OPEC cuts. 2. OPEC will cheat - there will be some cheating but they need the deal to work, their balance sheets require it, so work it will. 3. Renewables - all the local petrol stations will be gone within 5 years! In a decade oil use will begin to decline but so will investment and so will cheap and easy oil sources, ironically the oil sector may be most profitable in its decades of decline. So long as sentiment remains predominantly bearish we have the inevitable change in sentiment and a likely oil sector bull market to look forward to. If we are making good money before the majority sentiment has turned bullish this generally means that we have made the call correctly and that we are probably under estimating the size of the gains that still lie ahead. Vlad

Doubler I agree this is a very good board. Oil sector people such as yourself and others are very helpful for the likes of me. What I particularly like is that disagreements are kept civil and never seem to get out of hand. Vlad

The case for Ithaca looks pretty clear to me despite the share having multi-bagged already, sometimes the best buy has already made major price moves. When I look at my two favorite oilers, Ithaca and Faroe, Delek's favorite two also I might add, whilst the gap between them has closed up a little in terms of value opportunity due to Ithaca's price gains, in the shorter term Ithaca still remains the slightly stronger buy in my view. Once full production is established and volumes confirmed in the Spring I expect to equal out my holding between the two and hold them both together for several years all being well. But for now Ithaca remains my largest holding. I have never seen Ithaca as just being about GSA first oil, I knew Ithaca pre-GSA development, the cash flow from GSA will allow Ithaca to return to its former self, aggressive, acquisitive and wholly profitable growth orientated, there will be a stream of developments, deals and possible acquisitions post GSA production. Vlad

Fist oil is the beginning of a process probably lasting a couple of months as the field builds up to full production output. If we begin in February as expected, we should see full production in April or thereabouts, issues can arise and probably will during the production build up. First oil should see a decent price response, probably into the £1.20s - my best guess but a guess all the same. As production builds and particularly if the oil price goes into the $60s by Spring then we should comfortably go past £1.50 by full production in my view. It does not stop there of course, production means immediately falling debt, next field development and possible further acquisitions and deals. Should be past £2 by the year end and if we can avoid a buy out, I have said it before and will say it again, Ithaca should top £5 quite comortably over the next 2 to 3 years. Vlad

Bench The building project. If the project is due to be completed within the next 6 months, how did your friend cope with your constant assertions that the project was going to be completed either the next day or the day after? Vlad

Listening to Malcy's comments of late I think that his top 3 on a risk reward basis will be Ithaca, Faroe and Cairn - probably in that order though not necessarily, I suspect he would recommend Ithaca as his largest holding until we reach full production and know what full production is, then more of an even split between the big three - which is how I will play it. Other bucket list inclusions will be more speculative I suspect, leave them alone I would say, the above three are all that is needed. Also, Petrofac and Plexus for oil services. Malcy does not usually rank his list as such but his big three producers look pretty clear to me from his comments of late. I bought in at an average of sub 25p this time although I did incur smaller losses in 2015, factoring this in my buy in would be just over 30p. Had to re-allocate a little lately, I had no choice, Ithaca was well past 50% of my total holding and climbing - still my largest holding though, will be until Spring/Summer at least I think. Vlad

From the feedback we have had it seems that we are very close now. It has also been made clear, from how I read it at least, that the initial opening of the wells and initial flow is still commissioning and testing, so it could be well into February before we get an announcement of first oil. The oil price has had everything thrown at it during the past month, irrational and groundless claims about the speed of shale's recovery and the failure of the OPEC deal have dominated the headlines. Interestingly the oil price just stayed within its post OPEC deal announcement trading range. This is very bullish, if all the news is negative and this failed to shake out the oil price, now that that the misinformation has subsided added to the fact that the narrow trading range has persisted for a while now, the upward move in the oil price when it comes should be decisive. The change in the markets view is becoming clear, there is very much a growing feeling that mid and large caps need to do deals quickly now while the real bargains are still available. The Stella hub would be quite an asset for a large mid tier player. I can's shake the suspicion that we are going to be bought for around £2.50 to £3 in the late Spring/early Summer. Vlad

A bid at a 30% premium now would not suffice given that Ithaca's share price is expected to be at least 50% above where we are now on full production in the spring. A bidder would need to approach £2 from here. I would simply buy more Faroe, Cairn and Petrofac if Ithaca is bought out. I think that we will make a lot more over the next 2 years if Ithaca can stay independent, but either way we make money Vlad

The two previous posts sum up the reality nicely - OPEC and Russia make far more money with a lower output but a higher price, the idea that producer states cannot afford to cut output is a nonsense. And yes they do need it now, the damage to OPEC and to the Russian economies is significant. Another year of low prices and they will all have to take decisions that will be politically destabilising It is important not to read too much into all of this, OPEC and Russia have taken the steps to make sure that the oil price remains on an upward trajectory, there will be pull backs in price, but they will be brief, the direction of travel for the oil price is upward. Vlad