Member Info for VladamirPokrov

Redrow looking very cheap at this point. Discount to TBV is significant. Very low historic earnings ratio although that obviously won't apply to this year. ROCE outstanding and operating margin decent. Government to release series of measures to kick start the economy shortly. The housing sector will be central to any measures, stamp duty holiday expected to be announced shortly.

I hope you are right that he just wants to be in charge and wants his son in law back, in which case hey should both be shown the door assuming their forecasts are more of less realistic. The share price not moving is typical of infrastructure and real estate as well as regeneration stocks bit of a flat period for this group, Brexit and waiting to see of gov puts more money into infrastructure which i think they will, i.e. the flat share price did not worry me, the former Chair can't really change that, if the company shows growth and expansion the share price will follow in time, but he canto control the timing of the price move. Vlad

You cannot appraise this situation from tech analysis approach. After a days heavy selling there will be some buying, the share price will bounce all over the place for a while. If there is no substance to the for Chairman's claims that the current trading will result in falling well short of forecasts, then ultimately your decision to stay in will be vindicated. If his claims are correct and the Telegraph do confirm that he has presented evidence to them, then you will get tanked, it all depends on that outcome not what the spread is or how many buyers there are this morning. The truth of the situation will not be clear for some time yet. Vlad

You might be right MasRSI and certainly I like what the company does and how they do it, hence i will monitor closely. But we don't know the current trading position, the current board says fine the founder says not, either could be right, but we just don't know right now. The fact that the former Chairman and founder has shown evidence to the telegraph of shorter term under performance which do not support the full year forecasts, is a concern, we don't know the truth and neither do you. A fall of over 10% is relatively small with such uncertainty, if clear evidence emerges of Van Elle missing annual targets by some margin we could be looking at much greater falls. Vlad

I exited today. The incumbent Directors are saying nothing has changed in terms of the outlook. The former Chairman and founder disagrees, the Telegraph says that it has seen the evidence that the former Chairman has allegedly showing that the current trading position does not accord with the full year forecasts. The telegraph does not say whether it believes his evidence or not. Point is there are divergent views on how the company is actually doing. If the full year targets are hit then this is a very cheap stock, if the position is far weaker, as the former Chairman is saying, then there will be further to fall. I will watch from the sidelines, all being well i will buy back in when we have some clarity. vlad

I exited today. The incumbent Directors are saying nothing has changed in terms of the outlook. The former Chairman and founder disagrees, the Telegraph says that it has seen the evidence that the former Chairman has allegedly showing that the current trading position does not accord with the full year forecasts. The telegraph does not say whether it believes his evidence or not. Point is there are divergent views on how the company is actually doing. If the full year targets are hit then this is a very cheap stock, if the position is far weaker, as the former Chairman is saying, then there will be further to fall. I will watch from the sidelines, all being well i will buy back in when we have some clarity. vlad

Massive selling by the two main shareholding Directors - I am out. Vlad

I find it of interest to reflect on how the current position in U and I compares to my previous outsize holdings over the last 8 years. In a perfect world I would hold about 6 stocks on equal weighting. In reality, I always find one company that combines upside potential and downside protection in such a way that I buy in within the range of 25% to even slightly over 40% of my total holdings. This has led to gains of over 10x original SIPP capital without additions or withdrawals in just over 8 years. My target had always been 25x growth within a decade, but extrapolating forward that might just be beyond my reach now, 20x growth in a decade being more realistic. But then again I am not so sure. Whilst some holding inevitably go wrong - Petrofac most recently, although not an outsized holding - within my top two holding have been Senior (2009), Petrofac (2010), Barratt (2010 -2013), Dart Group (2012 - 2013), Kentz (2013), Inland (2013 - 2015), Ithaca Energy (2015 - 2016) and now U and I is comfortably my largest holding with Van Elle my second largest. Although the valuations of my previous largest winners looked ridiculous in hindsight, nevertheless, they all involved plenty of waiting around, not long for Dart and Kentz, but a couple of years for Barratt. The extent of the undervaluation and the speed of the revaluation did not generally correlate, although the undervaluation did always correct in time so long as the company remained on track. How does the current undervaluation of U and I compare with previous winners. Never an easy comparison as previous winners are in the past. But I do keep having to pinch myself here. The forward discount to forward TBV (Feb 2018) of 39%, due to the TBV being the denominator, would equate to a 60% rise in share price if the share price were to rise to the level of forward TBV. Given the GDV pipeline, excluding recent PPP Projects - I will come to these shortly, is about �4.5B. Obviously GDV is not all profit, but with a forward TBV around �360M, it is clear that the assets on the books are very conservatively valued. So, a share price of 1.5 times TBV for the asset based component of U and I's pipeline would not be excessive at all. This equates to a 140% price rise. Look closely at the last full year report and the recently added PPP projects add �1.5B to the pipeline and remarkably, c�90M to the annual profits from about 2020 onwards. I noticed that there was no sensible correlation between the medium term forward earnings of U and I and the discount to forward assets - the medium term forward earnings were much much higher than I expected. The PPP projects of course, Morden Warf excepted, are not owned assets, U and I are the development partner. There are two businesses here. One based on the assets for which the valuation alone is compelling, the other not based on owned assets, which is even more compelling. If you bought only for the asset discount, then that

I am ok with this. The size of the portfolio and the early development phase of much will pull on cash and equity, second half loaded for realisations. For a retailer or manufacturer this would be a red flag bit not for real estate when company dependable, U and I have been open about earnings changes in the past. steady away, should see some price growth over the winter but need a 2 or 4 year view here, should multi bag several times over within 4 years. Vlad

Jesse Livermore was a mass of contradictions. Lefevre's account under the fictional name Larry Livingston is the most informative. In his youth he was an expert at support and resistance type trading. In time he became a remarkable observer of Bull markets and the irrational behaviour. He positioned for the top of the 1929 bull run quite expertly, not by chance as some writers have said. Part of his 1929 analysis was valuation based for the market as a whole although he put little effort into the valuation of individual companies which was part of his undoing as valuations ultimately will trump technical analysis. His last wife had had 4 previous husbands, all 4 had committed suicide, Livermore was the fifth - seems incredible but apparently true - he certainly did not do his fundamental research there. His other big undoing was chasing trades that would make the headlines and maintain his status as a celebrity trader of his day. There is some real insight in Lefevre's book though, not least the quote below. Vlad

hollyhunter The MACD, stochhastic and RSI mean little here. UAI is stuck in the trading range as the institutions stop buying as soon as the top of the range is approached. This I suspect, is about to change, the break out when the price closes above around 200p will be decisive due to the massive undervaluation and the fact that institutional buyers have manage to keep the UAI share price bottled up in that range for so long as they accumulate their holdings. So who have they been buying from would be the question. Retail investors are, for the most part a hapless bunch of short sighted Lemmings. Sitting in a trading range for a year or more is way beyond the capacity of nearly all of them. As Jesse Livermore once said, the capacity to both be right and to sit tight is rarely found in the same person. Vlad

Monty Vlad he work hard on the English, with the good effect yes. I think that I gave up on the Vlad Russian thing prematurely. Some posters expressed disappointment when Vlads English became 'mainstream'. Oddly enough it was sometimes easier to put across certain points in the partial English and it was also easier to disagree with others without causing any offence as Russian Vlad - watch this space. I never bought Serica. A number of reasons: I could not pull enough info together to get comfy, areas of operation can be tricky so beyond my knowledge, size means liquidity would make building a worthwhile position more tricky. I do hold Diversified Gas and Oil, but with a wary eye on the global demand curve, looks like it may peak as early as 2020 now. NAHL I did not really like. IC was lukewarm, I do sometimes buy when they say don't but the reasons need to be compelling. Debt steadily climbing, don't like the sector much, not saying their services aren't needed, but I came across too many con artists in this area when in management so it always leaves me with a bad taste. U and I Gp, Van Elle, Diversified Gas and Oil, Central Asia Metals, Harworth, Urban & Civic and Berkeley are my current holdings. Best Vlad

arsenal158 Yes I keep having to pinch myself hear. Massive discount to forward TBV very low earnings ratio for next 2 years, ridiculously low earning ratio after 2020, incredible development project pipeline, innovative in the extreme. 10 institutional holders with 3% or more. I hold 1/4% of all the shares myself. Fascinating how something like Brexit can trigger such extreme short term investor blindness. Locked and loaded. Vlad

Whilst the real estate sector plunge was very Brexit linked going forward I don't see Brexit as the big risk. The post 2008 crisis stuttering recovery has been fueled by QE, low interest raters and low oil prices. Over the next 2 or 3 years QE should be over everywhere with possible QE unwinding in the US, interest rates will rise and oil, due the dramatic drop in investment will be more costly than it is now. The real estate related sector is cheap. U and I is cheap on an asset only assessment, add in the growth profile and the clear innovative skills within U and I Group and their current share price is very cheap indeed. If you are convinced that we are moving into a sharp recession at some point this year, then whilst U and I would fair better than most, they would not be immune. If like me, you suspect that the current cycle may well run for a couple more years, then U and I Group is the best place to be in the UK market. Vlad

Could do with more information and comment. On the face of it the share issue dilution ratio and significant debt increase all looks fair and ultimately a very good deal for existing shareholders when the production and reserve increases are taken into account - any views

These results were exactly as expected. The forecast at the start of last year was lower, but U and I upped the forecasts as the year progressed. Asset holders always produce lumpy earnings and profit realisations, not like other sectors where earnings are more regular and can easily be profiled to suit over a year. This year's dividend is going to be huge without it being inappropriate relative to cash flow. This is always a key valuation indicator for a company like this. U and I Group could be at c400p currently without being overly expensive due to the strength of the development pipeline. Gearing has come down which I always like to see. I think that U and I are very innovative and very able. There is nothing in these results which has come as a surprise to me. I hold about 1/4% of U and I Group stock through various channels. I expect U and I's share price to near triple over the next 2 to 3 years. People always scorn when I say things like this - recency bias at work I presume - but I said the same about Ithaca last year, Inland in 2013/14, Kentz in 2013, Dart Group in 2013, JD Sports in 2011 (although in the case of JD I mistakenly did not stay around for the eventual profits), Barratt in 2012, Petrofac in 2009, Senior in 2009. U and I Group as well as Urban & Civic, despite the overall market being expensive, offer valuation and growth valuation metrics as strong if not stronger than all my previous baggers/multi-baggers. Vlad

In my view U and I is the most undervalued company on the UK exchanges now. Whether you view it from a Grahamite asset play basis, or price relative to future earnings or a dividend investment, U and I comes out on top. Why? The post Brexit real estate sector carnage has left the progress of U and I completely overlooked. Will this change? Yes, the market is starting to wake up to this already, between now, the full year results and the next half year report awareness will steadily build. When will the price move? It is moving now, the price trajectory and the timing is unknowable in precise terms, should double or triple over the next 2 years, don't try to time it, you will fail, just sit tight. Vlad

40,000 to 50,000 bpd in five years time against the backdrop if an oil price between $90 and $110 will based in Faroe's projected production costs will justify a share price more than 5 times higher than the current level. Some production is temporarily coming off line this year to allow improvement work. This may well be made up for later this year by further acquisitions. Going forward, production will increase steadily year on year on a relatively low risk basis. Compared to Ithaca there is not the imminent event catalyst that Ithaca has enjoyed over the past year, but then again this is a very different organisation, lower risk and better managed. Shorter term the share price for Faroe will be closely linked to the oil price, when oil breaks out above $60, probably by the Spring, Faroe will track upwards. A lot of Ithaca investors who are hanging on to see what happens with the Delek bid will in time transfer over to Faroe in my view. Faroe is a far more attractive proposition for longer term investors and funds due their dogged refusal to expose their balance sheet and the steady hand of their chief exec. Is the share price of Faroe likely to triple by the end of this year? Probably not, but we should see steady gains and I expect Faroe to multi-bag several times over during the next 5 years unless Delek step in before then. Vlad

Graham Stewart was interviewed on IC. Fascinating, Graham wastes no energy whatsoever on charm or spin, very much the quintessential image of the dour penny pinching Scotsman - I mean that in a complimentary sense, exactly the kind of person I want in charge of my largest holding. Graham was pressed on whether Delek would bid and whether Faroe would be allowed to sell relatively cheaply like Ithaca. He said he did not know whether Delek will bid, although he acknowledge they might. He stressed that the very best outcome for shareholders would be his priority and stressed that Delek obtained Faroe's shares on the market. What he is referencing here is the issuing of Ithaca shares to Delek prior to Ithaca's debt re-assessment, to get Ithaca through the debt re-assessment more comfortably by relaxing Ithaca's creditors due to the cash generated from the share issuing to Delek. Ithaca were more beholden to Delek subsequently than we thought. Between Delek and Faroe there is no such cosy insider arrangement, Faroe do not need Delek, Delek bought in because they see value as we do, if they want to buy is out it will require a considerable premium, that is what Graham Stewart has made clear. Vlad

If the market believes the bid must rise and/or if production commences prior to a takeover, can the share price actually rise above the level of the bid? Presumably this is possible, is it? And if so, presumably the bid is dead in the water is it not? Any thoughts? Vlad