The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
HTTPS://twitter.com/ChicagoJack5/status/1592154152330985474?s=20&t=lb2IvcMow-UytNRZ--f18Q
2007 Iraqi hydrocarbon law draft suitable for Kurdistan Region: KRG advisor
Rudaw 12.11.22
"ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A 2007 draft for an Iraqi oil and gas law could be suitable for the Kurdistan Region after some modification, an advisor to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) told Rudaw on Friday, as Erbil keeps emphasizing the need for a joint hydrocarbons law to resolve pending issues with Baghdad"...
...“There are three drafts for an oil and gas law in Iraq,” Bewar Khinsi, advisor to Kurdistan Region’s Prime Minister Masrour Barzani told Rudaw’s Hemin Baban on Friday, adding “the first of which is the 2007 draft which was somewhat satisfactory to the Kurdistan Region and now needs to be amended and could prove to be the best one.”
The advisor claimed that the other two drafts were unsatisfactory to the Kurdistan Region, stressing that Erbil should avoid discussing them with Baghdad.
The KRG on Wednesday formed a delegation to partake in negotiations with Baghdad over outstanding issues, including the topic of oil and gas.
“It is very important for the Kurdistan Region to prepare a delegation of well-informed legal and oil experts to negotiate with Baghdad, and be aware of all the legal gaps and know all the details of the oil and gas process, to prevent the composition of draft that is against the interests of the Kurdistan Region,” Khinsi added"...
hTtps://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/11112022
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (LSE: GKP)
Shaikan Payment Update
Gulf Keystone confirms that a gross payment of $57.7 million ($45.3 million net to GKP) has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government ("KRG") for Shaikan crude oil sales during July 2022.
So even with the gains of the last two years, oil does not look expensive relative to the S&P 500. It is at the cheaper end of the range. Another sign there is more gas left in the bull market tank.
Heres the price of oil relative to gold. These two as hard commodities tend to trade in a much tighter range over time, but my observation again is that it is in the low to middle of the 20 year range and not at one of those points of extremity whereby you might consider rolling out of one and into the other.
For sure we are nothing like where we were went oil went to $147 in 2008. In fact, we are below where we were for most of the 2000s. On the basis of this chart, oil is probably the cheaper of the two.
CHART3
As regular readers will vouch, oil is a drum I have been beating since 2016 when it was $25 or so, declaring it our trade of the lustrum. A lustrum is a five year period, a useful and underused word, Id say.
That lustrum is now becoming a decade. We continue to beat the drum on oil, gas, coal and related oil and gas stocks. Fossil fuel demand will continue to grow until at least 2030 the IEA has forecast (2040 in the case of natural gas).
There is still a strong case for fossil fuels
That means it is not just enough to maintain current production levels; they need to increase. Yet there have been seven or eight years of underinvestment, leading to todays shortages.
There are multiple reasons why production isnt keeping up with demand. ESG policies are deterring investment, capital is flooding into green energy related companies rather than fossil fuels and the excesses of the previous oil bull market still needed to be purged.
Still, the market conditions remain good and I think oil and gas stocks will go higher in the long term.
Im a big believer in narratives within markets. The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change. Many are realising just how important they are and what they have made possible. Indeed, there is a strong moral case for them, not against them.
But the narrative is not yet at end of cycle levels. When people start talking about Peak Oil again, thats the sort of thing you want to be looking out for. The need for alternative energy sources is not because fossil fuels are bad, but because we have consumed them all.
I dont know what the end of bull market narratives will be, thats a story that is yet to be told. But if legislators and subsidisers start abandoning electric vehicle initiatives because the ultimate source of electricity remains the burning of fossil fuels, and its really quite inefficient, never mind hypocritical, that is one possible scenario
So hold on to your positions in oil and gas stocks, enjoy the ride.
https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/energy-stocks/605499/oil-and-gas-stocks
Hold on to your oil and gas stocks
Oil and gas stocks have done very well in the last few months. But theyve got a long way to run yet.
by: Dominic Frisby
10 NOV 2022
The fossil fuel story is only slowly starting to change.
Today we consider energy and oil and gas stocks once again.
While oil and gas prices have done a great deal over the last six months up a bit, down a bit, then sideways the associated companies have done very well: the producers, the service companies and so on.
Many years of bear market belt tightening are now paying off.
However, in my opinion, we are not yet at that point of excess and decadence that marks the end of a cycle crazy mergers and acquisitions, insane valuations and Bacchanalian behaviour from the executive classes. So I venture today, as last week, that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank of this bull market.
With that in mind, I wanted to share a few charts with you today that give an idea of what is possible.
Oil and gas stocks are on the rise
The first chart shows the ratio between energy stocks and the rest of the market.
Indeed, without energy stocks there would not be a rest of the market. This a simple point that many, especially those who make policy, don't seem to understand. The world we live in today and the economic benefits we enjoy, relative to our ancestors, have been made possible by fossil fuels.
So here is the energy sector relative to the S&P 500. The higher the chart goes, the bigger the relative market cap of oil and gas stocks.
You can see that, even with the rally we have seen in energy companies since 2020, on a relative basis, energy companies are, give or take, where they were at the turn of the century, when oil itself was around $10/barrel and that secular bull market was only just getting started.
CHART1
You can also see that we are in an uptrend. Energy stocks are increasing in value, while the broader S&P500 is flat or falling.
Its also worth noting that the relative market capitalisation was almost three times as large in mid 2008 when oil went to $147/barrel.
The inference is that the bull market has a lot further to run.
Oil and gas stocks are cheap compared to the broader market
Next, the ratio between oil West Texas Intermediate and the S&P 500.
You would expect this chart to trend lower over time because oil production and extraction techniques should improve over time, while broader economies and the companies that operate in them grow.
Nevertheless, we are below the levels we were in the early part of the century. You can see how high this ratio went in 2008 and how low in the corona panic of 2020, when oil futures, somehow, went into negative territory.
CHART2
Relative to the S&P 500, oil is roughly where it was three or five years ago Id say its at its three or five year average. And its a lot cheaper than it was throughout that entire 2003 to mid 2014 timeframe.
So even with the gains of th
KRG says Baghdad agreed to enact a hydrocarbons law within six months of the government's formation
Iraq News
kudistan
Baghdad
2022-11-10 11:06
Shafaq News/ The political agreement that gave birth to Mohammad Shiya al-Sudani's cabinet stipulates that a bill on hydrocarbons should be enacted within six months of its installation, the spokesperson to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Gutiar Adel, said on Thursday.
Speaking in a press conference earlier today, Adel said that the region's government is still keen on resolving the differences with the federal government.
"The region's government has formed a ministerial delegation to negotiate with Baghdad," said the KRG spokesperson, "we are currently waiting for a response to proceed with the negotiations."
"The negotiations will tackle the issues the political forces agreed on prior to the formation of the government," he explained, "some of these issues deal with legislative affairs. The others are mainly executive."
Adel said that the hydrocarbon bill, the federal budget, and Article 140 of the constitution come at the top of the list.
"We have reached an agreement to disburse the budget and give the Kurdistan region its share in accordance with the constitution... The financial monitors in Baghdad and the region are working out solutions for the outstanding financial issues."
KRG's spokesperson said that an agreement between the political forces comprises enacting new laws on oil and gas, the federal supreme court, and the federal service council within six months of forming a government.
OIL TANKERS TO SEE BIGGEST DEMAND SURGE IN DECADES
By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com
Demand for oil tankers carrying oil products is set to soar next year to heights not seen in three decades, according to new research from Clarkson Research Services, Ltd., cited by Bloomberg. The research organization is forecasting that the number of ton-miles will increase next year by 9.5%--the largest annual increase since 1993. {Ton miles—the volume of cargo multiplied by the distance that cargo traverses—is a common gauge that the shipping industry uses}
Part of the reason behind the anticipated demand surge for ton miles for oil products is the change in routes due to Russia’s soon-to-be restrictions on exports. Russia will need to redirect crude product flows to buyers not involved in price capping or sanctions, such as Asia—but this rerouting is expected to increase the distance that Russian cargos are shipping.
“It could easily be five or six times the distance and that means that you’ll need much more ships to transport the same volume that you imported previously,” said Anders Redigh Karlsen, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, told Bloomberg. “That is going to drive demand for product tankers.”
In September, Danish shipping company Torm told Bloomberg that “The EU ban on Russian oil products from February 2023 will spark a recalibration of the oil trade ecosystem. Some of this trade recalibration has already started.” Another factor are new refineries in Asia and the Middle East, which are expected to begin to exporting.
The oil tanker market is already having a good year earnings-wise, as rates for carrying refined fuels on medium-range voyages increase to levels not seen since 2008. Demand for tankers has been on the rise ever since the EU sanctioned Russia, and shipping companies were left scrambling to get ahold of ice-class tankers ahead of the embargo. Few tankers have been built in the past few years, and since this is not something the industry can reverse overnight, supply will probably remain tight, pushing the cost of transporting oil and fuels higher.
Block Listing Six Monthly Return
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GKP/block-listing-six-monthly-return/15701853
Oil and gas legislation
The Canadian Ambassador Galligan also said that he hopes there will be new hydrocarbon legislation in Baghdad. “So that it can create a more friendly investor climate that will encourage Canadian companies and other foreign companies to return to KRG and in greater volumes.”
Read More: Legislating hydrocarbon law could be a framework for cooperation with Baghdad, says PM Barzani
PM Masrour Barzani on Tuesday called for the legislating of a hydrocarbon law in Iraq that could serve as a framework for cooperation between Erbil and Baghdad. Baghdad and Erbil had several disputes over oil and gas and although previously draft oil and gas laws were suggested, no oil and gas law was ever passed since 2005.
“I think wherever there is uncertainty and the investor climate has an impact on foreign investors,” he said.
“I think Canadians as a people are sort of risk averse. I mean, certainly in the hydrocarbon sector, it's a very large market, but the capital costs associated with developing projects are significant and so unless there's a degree of investor certainty, it will inevitably have an impact on you know, how far companies are willing to invest and what kind of risks are willing to take.”
However, he said this is a priority for the government in Baghdad and also for officials in the KRG.
Romanowski: we have long-term commitment to Iraq
Iraq News
Baghdad
U.S. Ambassador
2022-11-02 09:15
Shafaq News / The U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, Alina Romanowski, said that her country will support Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani's government.
In a speech she gave during her attendance of the Meri Forum 2022 in Erbil, that the U.S. has a long-term commitment to Iraq, and has a lot to do including the 2008 strategic agreement between the two countries, noting, "as President Biden said, we won't leave this country."
"We will support Iraq and its current government headed by Mr. al-Sudani to combat corruption, carry out economic reforms and provide jobs for Iraq."
The ambassador added that the U.S. will continue providing assistance and advice to the Iraqi forces to win the war against ISIS.
Romanowski praised the Kurdistan Region's role in forming the new Iraqi government, urging Erbil and Baghdad to address their pending differences.
Why Does Heavy Oil Matter?
Around the globe, some of the most prolific basins, such as Mexico's Cantarell oilfield, are reaching or already into maturity and have begun to experience reduced production rates. What large conventional oilfields remain lie mostly in the lands of Middle Eastern, OPEC nations. At the same time, the world's demand for oil continues to grow every year, fueled in part by the rapidly growing economies of China and India. This declining availability of conventional oil combined with rising demand has driven up oil prices and put more pressure on the search for alternate energy sources.
Into the picture come the tremendous deposits of heavy oil and bitumen that are found in the Western hemisphere. These non-conventional resources are more difficult and costly to extract, so they have barely been touched in the past. However, between the nearly 500 billion barrels of recoverable Canadian oil sands and the more than 200 billion barrels of recoverable Venezuelan heavy oil, the world could soon have access to oil sources almost equivalent to those of the Middle East.
"Heavy oils are emerging in importance as our technology in producing them continues to develop," explains Bill Bush, spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute (API). "Heavy oils, oil sands, and potentially shale, could contribute substantially to future U.S. and world oil supplies."
With the price of oil reaching new highs in 2005 and 2006, investments in these more challenging oil deposits are rapidly accelarating. In fact, the U.S. oil industry alone has invested $86 billion in "frontier hydrocarbons" since 2000, developing technologies to recover and convert inferior grades of oil, such as heavy oil and bitumen, into a more usable form for refineries, and to turn waste and residue hydrocarbons into high-value products.
The worldwide importance of heavy oils will continue to emerge as the price of oil remains high and the demand for it remains strong. For example, the tight worldwide oil supply is expected to continue to force crude prices higher and turn Canada's oil sands into the single largest contributor to net new global supply by the end of the decade, according to CIBC World Markets.
"All of the net increase in oil production this year is expected to come from non-conventional sources," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. "While deepwater oil is the primary source today, we forecast that the Canadian oil sands will become the single largest contributor to incremental global supply by 2010."
With oil prices exceeding US$140 per barrel at this writing in mid-2008 and limited market access to OPEC reserves, Rubin says that Canadian oil sands may become one of the world's most valuable energy sources as well as one of the few still open to private investment.
Sally Cole Johnson is a freelance writer based in Windham, NH. She earned a B.A. in geology from the University of New Mexico and specializes in earth sc
PM Barzani stresses formation of oil, gas law with Baghdad as foremost priority
Rudaw, Julian Bechocha, 01.11.22
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Tuesday said that the formation of a joint hydrocarbons law between Erbil and Baghdad is crucial for the resolution of outstanding issues between the two which are currently jeopardizing the Region’s ability to administer its natural resources.
“We have an understanding to stop pressure [from Baghdad] until we work together to draft a new law for the hydrocarbons and then we present it to the parliament and that new hydrocarbons law will be the anecdote solution to all these issues,” Barzani said during a top regional forum in Erbil, with Baghdad being the host of a pressure campaign against international oil companies (IOCs) operating in the Region.
hTtps://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/01112022
MERI Live Stream 01.11.22
Lizzy Porter (Iraq Oil Report) question to Masrour Barzani (Kurdistan Region PM)
(her question at 22.48 min, with his answer at 27.02 min)
hTtp://www.meri-k.org/making-iraq-work-for-all/live-stream-2/
"An oil investment lag is sowing seeds for a future energy crisis, OPEC secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday.
OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium and longer term on Monday, saying that $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand."
And governments want to increase the windfall taxes on the very companies that they will be expecting to come up with that $12.1 trillion to keep the world supplied with oil. Talk about short sighted.
The best way for countries and companies to secure their energy supply into the future is not to go searching for it but to buy up discovered but undeveloped assets such as those in Kurdistan, so fingers crossed for the new Prime Minister and the oil & gas law.
The oil price is only going one way.
hTTps://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/oil-markets-china-covid-demand-production-output.html
Rudaw Twitter @RudawEnglish
01.11.22
RudawMERIForum:
"In the Kurdistan Region, we have shown our readiness to resolve the differences between us. On the topic of oil and gas, Iraq still lacks a law … together, we can work on an oil and gas law and send it to parliament,” (Masrour)Barzani said of Erbil-Baghdad issues.
hTtps://twitter.com/RudawEnglish/status/1587450610038804481
UPDATE: Hayan Abdulghani confirmed to lead Oil Ministry as Sudani takes power
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani formed a government and took office as prime minister, providing initial details on his program for Iraq's energy sector.
Hayan Abdulghani, then-director general of the South Gas Company, speaks to Iraq Oil Report in his Basra office on Dec. 6, 2018. (ALI AL-AQILY/Iraq Oil Report)
STAFF OF IRAQ OIL REPORT
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27TH, 2022
BAGHDAD - The veteran Iraqi oil man Hayan Abdulghani was confirmed as the country's next oil minister Thursday, as Mohammed Shia al-Sudani assembled a Cabinet and took office as prime minister.
The formation of a new government ends a year of limbo for Iraq and its oil sector following October 2021 national elections — a period in which the caretaker government of former Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was both politically and legally constrained from addressing strategic initiatives including national budget legislation, major oil and gas projects, and negotiations with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over oil powers and revenue sharing
hTtps://www-peyamakurd-info.translate.goog/kurmanci/Kurdistan/iraq-di-karnameya-hikumeta-sudani-de-cend-xalen-giredayi-herema-kurdistane?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The Prime Minister of Iraq, Muhammad Shia Sudani, today, October 27, 2022, announced the work of his government.
In the Iraqi government's official document, there are several issues on the files and decisions related to the Kurdistan Region, in which the coordination between the Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government is determined.
The Oil and Gas Law will be prepared in 6 months
In a part of the work of the the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government will prepare the oil and gas project and the budget according to the constitution of Iraq within 6 months.
It is stated in the document that the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Government of Iraq will discuss oil and budget issues with the support of the political forces that have agreed on this agenda, until the issuance of the oil and gas law according to the constitution in up to six months. .
For the creation of the oil and gas law, a special committee for legal, financial and fuel affairs is being implemented by the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Government of Iraq.
hTtps://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/29807?__cf_chl_tk=_MxH3H27r6H_54xGC85fIRqemL3XYtvpL0QrlnYEpZU-1666807507-0-gaNycGzNFhE
ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on Wednesday said he hopes both the Iraqi and Kurdish governments enact an oil and gas law after the next federal government will be formed.
Barzani’s remarks came during the inauguration ceremony of Lanaz Refinery in the west of Erbil province, which was attended by Kurdish senior officials as well as members of the diplomatic community.
Despite the abundance of natural resources, the Iraqi people have been deprived of basic services, Barzani said, blaming “bad governance” and “violating the constitution”, which is still ongoing.
Instead of impartial implementation of the 2005 constitution, some “entities and individuals” in Iraq have interpreted the legal document in their favor.
“I hope, following the inauguration of the next Iraqi government, both Erbil and Baghdad will be able to draft an oil and gas law,” Barzani said, adding it would be in the interest of both Iraqi and Kurdish peoples.
Congratulating the staff of Lanaz Refinery, the premier hailed that the oil-refining installation has been established with state-of-the-art technology and is friendly to the environment.
With the 79,000-bpd crude oil refining capacity, the energy establishment provides job opportunities for nearly 10,000 people on daily basis, both directly and indirectly, according to the company.
Barzani stressed his government’s keenness to support job creation opportunities both in the public and private sectors.
Initially built in 2008, the refinery has gone through numerous development stages to enhance production. The refinery has partnered with UOP and Honeywell to use the American companies' technology to produce cleaner-burning fuels.
The company also produces 5,000 tons of asphalt, which is exported to neighboring and Middle Eastern countries.