intresting read by rugrat on LSE16 May 2019 07:45
Time for some realism /facts and figures here. When looking at the new leases a few months ago before we knew officially which they were, I spent a long time looking at how much oil each lease section might hold, and also at the patents, and data from other players eg Acceleware.
For the Holliday B block which we are working in just now (80 acres only) the gross 2C resource (Contingent + Prospective) is 11.2mm bbl (RNS 18/03/2019). The 8/05/2019 RNS isn’t crystal clear but to me it looks like they are targeting just 70 ft of shale to test which corresponds +/- with the 60ft of 25gpt average zone listed for a very close borehole in:
SPECIAL STUDY 128 UTAH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 2008
hxxps://ugspub.nr.utah.gov/publications/special_studies/SS-128.pdf
My guess is that the 25gpt average zone is (+/-) the Contingent part of the 2C resource (4.6mm bbls). From SS128 the 15gpt average zone covers some 197 ft, extending above and below (and including) the 25gpt zone and would be Contingent + Prospective, by my logic.
So, getting back to the test zone, lets assume that whatever length the antenna is it's vertical range is 70 ft or so. Assuming 80% recoverability by R/F and a 100ft effective radius, a well should produce a little over 33,000 bbls. I'm assuming 3 years to drain the zone so about 30 bopd. If the effective radius increases to 120ft then the jump in bopd is 44%. At 145ft it is a 100% increase. And the well may drain in more, but hopefully less time.....
Lots of variables to which we may get answers in the coming months.
To get the full value out of the resource (ie the 15gpt average zone) would require maybe 3 or 4 positions for the antenna moving it up or down every few years, so maybe a 10-12 year duration, unless very long antennae can be engineered. Most of the acreage would benefit from horizontal drilling IMO, so for that a long antenna string would be essential.
And unless I have missed something, the configuration of 3 well bores closely spaced that are soon to be drilled is just for the test. All the patents point to a grid of well bores at …..spacing, with combined r/f antenna and oil pipe.