Member Info for varun25

Https://open.substack.com/pub/humbleinvesting/p/gb-group-aim-gbg-is-gbg-an-example?r=5hpqk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

I wrote some thoughts on GB Group just last week for any of the holders who want to read.

https://open.substack.com/pub/humbleinvesting/p/gb-group-aim-gbg-is-gbg-an-example?r=5hpqk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Last part of the interview is indeed interesting. it gives a clear sense that board is thinking how to unlock value. We all suspect Kester is roadblock in thar process as Kester was buying stock last at around £1.35-£1.50 so a deal valuing below that level will be hard for Kester to justify to their stakeholders. The story continues...

I think a deal is coming... it is coming this year or next... I noticed Michael saying 46% growth in EBITDA last year and confident that EBITDA is going up this year... I think you could argue that a 22m EBITDA for 2025 along with 10x multiple would mean that significant value unlocking for investors. I am masively down with average price at 1.05 but happy to hold on for now and see how things evolve.

Just started following OMG after noticing that Christopher Mills is a large shareholder. The trading seems to be tough but hard to believe that the business has enterprise value of 17m. Market cap of 63m and cash of 46m. This seems to indicate that the business is severely challenged and heading towards a wipe out. I am not a owner yet but trying to figure out what the bear case is for the operations? Can the EBITDA go negative and then we burn through cash?

Although I would go from a loss position to a gain position at 125p, it seems that the price is still too low to me... Wonder what Kestrel thinks. It was 200p 6 months ago.. and on valuation metrics, this does seem to be too low.

Agree with all of that. I do however think that the headwinds are temporary (many projects delayed rather than cancelled forever) and if you believe the same, then the valuation even at the current reduced net income of c. 200m suggests a valuation of 9x and a price/book of less than 1x. this is cheap. VTY is different to others as a little capital light due to partnership model so continues to be different than the likes of TW etc.

Not sure anyone is reading this but CEO, Chairman and CFO have bought some small positions in the open market. this is a positive and I have doubled down on this. the transition to financial planning seems to be going at pace and the valuation remains cheap. you also get 5% yield while you want for the strategy to play out.

Not surprised to see the results today and expect continued strong growth. The isssue though is that there is going to be an overhang on the stock until the DCB liabilities are fully paid off next year at which point I can see the share price rallying to reflect the underlying business which seems to be doing robustly well.

The trading update was relatively robust but the spike in the share seems to have been sold immediately. Until we get clarity on the CMA investigation, the price will stay depressed. There is a lot to like about the business but do not think that CMA investigation is going to let the share price reflect the numbers.

I really really struggle to see why Michael and Billy are not putting hands in the pocket to buy. Them buying perhaps doesn't change the price directly but does put a floor on the sentiment ont he stock which is max bearish right now. completely disjoined from underlying cashflow generation dynamics.

Been adding small portions and crying as price keeps going down... Frustration is at max level on my side.

May have missed something but what are Zeus saying / doing now?

Wow. Even more stomach churning declines today morning. The buy backs are up but there is some seller who wants out at any price. Do they know something that we don't i.e. the next results are going backwards compared to expectations?

Agree that they should absolutely double down on the buy backs. At current valuation, I don't want dividend. I want them to cancel shares.

Even a token investment say £50-100-200k investment from Green and Riedel is helpful in putting confidence in the prospects. so far, complete silence from them.

Good to see that the pace of buy backs has been increased though, atleast for the last 2 days.

I believe the closed period ends on the day they release the results to the market so we should have seen some buys from directors if they wanted to. I suspect Max Royde may be scared to double down as he already has 26% stake. Would have wanted Michael and Billy to put hands in the pocket to put some confidence in the prospects/share price but perhaps they are not interested in buying more than what they already own.

Why would you say so?

I have done this already.