Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Very true JH where have they all come from no action for months then loads of panick sells and mysteriously a load of buyers appear. Think I'll calmly wait until July to make any decision and not worry about what is a global situation affecting markets.
Be interesting to see what happens to the 14p broker and simply wall st 24p valuations.
Anyone here have a view on the inverse correlation between the order book and actual sales. One keeps growing whilst the other falls, am I missing something or are they continuing to receive orders but just not able to ship as many products into sales for the reasons highlighted.
Anyway still holding waiting for better fortunes need some serious patience in this market.
July was the last date I was aware of from document below:
SO ORDERED, re [207] PROPOSED ORDER Second Amended Scheduling Order: (Fact Discovery completed by 1/20/2023., Dispositive Motions due by 3/24/2023., Answering Brief due 4/7/2023., Reply Brief due 4/21/2023., A Final Pretrial Conference is set for 7/13/2023 at 03:00 PM in Courtroom 4B before Judge Colm F. Connolly., A Jury Trial is set for 7/24/2023 at 08:30 AM in Courtroom 4B before Judge Colm F. Connolly.) Signed by Judge Colm F. Connolly on 11/3/2022.
BB you're probably correct retail investors have been selling out for many years and this collapse in the sp will make many more give up. I was actually tempted to buy more at this level which would give me a very good average but having done so already in the low 20's I'm going to stick with what I have. Never sold any of these and sitting on a large £ loss at present but I just can't see a technology like this not coming to market. I expect either a low price takeover or further progress as an independent with all the dilution will still result in a much higher sp that may just return me a profit. The ironic thing is that if they had delivered 230MeV back when they had the original Chinese orders this news would of achieved a much more positive reaction and significant value. With all the changes to previously communicated plans much of the market doesn't have confidence in the latest road map to commercialisation. Obviously signed orders, successful patient treatment, achieving accreditation and £10's of millions of pounds in the bank will build confidence, as would a takeover by a major but that would be it for any sp growth. The fact II's like OAM have made recent significant investments is reassuring and I hope we don't get news of any large sell-off as that would seriously erode what little confidence remains. Good look anyway and hopefully we soon hear news of further progress in what really is an amazing technological achievement and a world's first that unfortunately hasn't received the credit it deserves. When it does like you say we could get a substantial upturn.
The one thing markets don't like is uncertainty which is in abundance here. When the financial arrangements are announced that bit of uncertainty will be removed.
The questions regarding manufacturing will probably remain as I never thought Daresbury was capable of the required high volume that was proposed with Thales. It seems more of an assembly and test facility that is now advanced into a medical facility providing patient treatment.
This is one of the main reasons a buy-out makes sense, if the order book fills up to anywhere near the 20 prospects in the pipeline they just don't have the resources to deliver these systems. Might not happen until the accreditation process has completed but as long as progress continues with funding, patient treatment and commercial deals the value of what they will have achieved is much more than the current sp. Looks like a volatile few months ahead but a very good chance of a good outcome whichever way it ends up.
I'm hoping this share does what ARB did. Back in December it was 2.5p and seemed a hopeless case now at 16p. I'm not invested in ARB or anything else to do with crypto but have kept a watchful eye and it goes to show how large the swings can be on positive news in AIM.
A similar turn around here would see this at around 60p and a mc of around 300m which is not a lot considering what they have developed and the cost to get to this point.
This could end up with around 1B shares in issue with existing warrants and if they secure dilutive funding of around £40m of the required £85m. The mc will then be dependent on commercial success following accreditation.
Having been invested for many years and reduced my average I wouldn't be disappointed with a 60p buy-out but if they achieve commercial success it's easy to see this being worth much more.
Have to say pre 230MeV I was of the take over opinion for the many reasons quoted by shareholders on this BB. Having seen what they have achieved I was having a change of mind but it looks like the market has the memory of an elephant and this sp will make things very difficult to get to full commercialisation as an independent company.
With companies like Siemens paying $16B for Varian there will be pressure to protect their market share. Paying between $500m & $1B to secure a disruptive technology in a market you have already made a substantial investment in will be a consideration to some large players.
Not sure some of the larger avo shareholders would be happy with around £1 a share but many here me included would definitely feel a sigh of relief putting an end to what feels like never ending uncertainty. However it plays out this low sp seems to be a real bargain let's hope if there is a takeover it's at a much higher price.
I don't believe anything has changed regarding the status of existing orders for Limassol Cyprus, Glion Switzerland and Harley Street in London which were mentioned in the recent Hardman & Co report.
Until binding contracts are signed which will hopefully happen prior to full accreditation and additional funds become available to commence manufacturing of these systems not much will be happening with the focus on raising funds and continuing the work towards first patient treatment as detailed in today's rns.
Exactly I believe the market is significantly undervaluing the Murata & to some extent the Ioxus arrangement. Those murata lines would of cost many more millions and the market they serve is coming to life. To have in-house manufacturing and direct contact with customers is a huge bonus in my opinion and worth more than the current cpx mcap on its own. CPX have also been trying for years to partner with someone to bring to market the large cap modules and now they have a full product range again to serve customers ready to utilise this technology.
Whilst the uptake has been slow as you say things are in place now and moving in the right direction just need the numbers to back-up all the good news and no reason the sp won't be much higher.
You don't really want to go there Mer but they were shipping 3v tech for the coin cell market nearly 5yrs ago, had signed MoU's for automobile applications with trial modules shipping with the expectation of high volume high value orders, truckstart modules, stop start applications, ev motorsport applications, mobile phones, smart credit cards the list goes on but nothing of any significance materialised.
It's only now the prismatic products with the murata production lines are showing real progress with the growth in IoT and the Ioxus deal has finally provided a range of large cap modules for the market they serve. They now have all the products that have been mentioned over many years and more importantly customers and the market ready to utilise these products. It's just taken longer than expected for the market uptake and a couple of significant events being the murata & Ioxus deals to get to where we are now....right place at the right time with the right products about 5yrs later than expected!
I can only presume that because cpx has failed to deliver over many years that the market won't move the sp until proof of numbers. The problem with AIM though is that the sp can seemingly swing wildly for no apparent reason. I plan to sit tight when the numbers are delivered & wait for what I believe is fair value in the expectation that AIM will play funny games. Might miss a few spikes but expect it to stabilise at a significantly higher value than the current sp. Hope to sell a few once it gets into the 20p's.
I don't think the recent share purchases by certain long standing BoD's is a sign of imminent insolvency. I'm sure the financing conundrum is a tricky area at present let's hope the chosen path is kind to PI's as no doubt securing funds in this market is not going to be easy.
I'm sure there are plenty suitors who at this stage of development would like to take this to market I'm sure we'll get some news soon.
It would be great if cpx could get to a mcap of around 140m which is where nano has fallen back to. Not difficult to see why brokers value cpx currently at 14p and simply wall st at 24p. Both these figures are below what nano is currently worth and cpx are soon to become profitable with growing revenues in a growth market. I know we've being saying it for years but it's only now that the numbers are likely to back-up the forecasts so at some point soon we should see the sp move up significantly
You may well be correct Mer I was referring to pbt but looking at the forecast again they could be ebitda positive. The interim results usually out late Feb could make for some pleasant reading and pave the way for the first significant leg up in sp.
I'm not so sure about profit this year up to 30th June 2022 but next year is looking very likely.
If this years results are above expectations then the sp will no doubt shoot up but even a solid set of results inline with expected progress should see a move towards double digits.
Me too but decided to stay the course and continued buying to lower my average and would have several million pre reverse split. You're right about AIM disasters there are many thankfully I've dodged a few bullets whilst watching and deliberating to see companies delist and dissappear such as ctag and dddd. Wasn't so lucky with abdx but decided to cut my losses there as felt it was creating a doom and gloom vibe that was best avoided.
My view here and with some other investments I have made (abdx being an exception) is that as long as they can ride out the volatility and keep going towards their destination at some point they will have their day of glory. Just need a very long term view so that hopefully if you've backed a winner you are fully invested when that day arrives and benefit from significant sp gains. Whether that happens here who knows but the story continues, senior board members continue to buy and they have achieved in the creation of an amazing worlds first technological piece of machinery. That has to have some value that the current sp doesn't recognise so the next phase of accreditation and a little commercial progress could have a significant impact. It might sound crazy but if I'd just encountered this share based on it's perceived no hope share price decline I'd never purchase the amount of shares I currently own but the knowledge gained over many years holding provides a level of understanding that feels less like most other AIM gambles.
That is exactly the case Mer & I like OS have been invested for a long time so have witnessed the missed opportunities. You are quite right that the licensing model meant much of the decision making was out CPX's control. That is no longer the case and CPX will be in direct commercial contact with the customer, a much stronger and informed position to be in. This is not only the case for the Murata products serving a growing IoT market but also with the Ioxus deal they are now in active discussions with customers involved in large supercapacitor modules.
This is a completely different looking company with a growing set of products serving a growth market. Crucially, if the results prove this is happening there should be much to look forwards to with the past disappointments well and truly left behind!
Looking at what's happened to green companies shares this year such as itm, phe, afc and ika with profits years away making raising funds in this climate difficult & expensive you have to say AK has shown great foresight & timing with the murata deal. To be moving into profitability and growing sales in this market is a massive bonus. In time the market will differentiate CPX from those other green technologies which are still some years away from mass adoption. The uptake of supercapacitors is growing rapidly in particular IoT where cpx has market leading products. They also now have a foothold in large capacitor modules with the Ioxus deal and the impact of this could be significant both in terms of sales and profits. There is every chance 2023 could finally see cpx valued to reflect this potential as we hear of the numbers being achieved in the interim & end of year results. GLA to what really should be a prosperous 2023.