Member Info for valuewalk

Timmy, my advice, for what it's worth (my stake of 140k was worth £22,000 yesterday haha), is to stick it out. We band together and vote against it. 1p and 0p is no difference at all. This proposal is daylight robbery. I'm only a little fish, I'm guessing most people here are (might be one or two of us with north of a million shares)....but together we can block any bid and, hopefully, replace the BOD. Any CEO, ANY, who suggests that a buyout offer at 95% below the closing price should be taken deserves to be ousted.

Criminal? Maybe not, but as a matter of law the BOD have a duty to the shareholders, not to the employees. Hate to sound Dickensian but English company law is not on the same page as that of many continental legal systems....if it produces value to us she's supposed to shed 95% of the workforce and replace them with robots. That is COW and Co's duty.

We must all try to keep our heads while those around us lose theirs. This is convicted fraudster Branson and co trying to test our mettle. You can take £2.2 million and shove it up your decrepit bat of a mother's you know what Richy Rich. Try £40 million. And as for COW saying she's securing the future for "our people"? What planet are you on? Your people are US, the shareholders. If your people are the employees maybe you should've run a f***ing trade union? Silly COW.

As a matter of law her job is to produce financial value for us, to look out for us, not to worry about employees, customers, the sky falling or WW3. The mere fact we're being OFFERED 1p suggests she has screwed up massively, hari kari if she were a Jap. And her doublespeak shall not let her off the hook.

Anyway, Scamson's deals have a habit of not coming off.....where are those $200k a pop spaceflights Tricky Dicky? And the $3 billion you promised crooked Hilary's hubby for his foundation? Maybe I'll take your subsidised Virgin trains service to Euston to ask you in person? Ah of course, you won't be here, too much tax to pay, you'll be on Necker won't ya.

WkWorld...this is a scam and a stitch up. We're all in the same boat, and I speak for a lot of us in saying we will NEVER approve this deal.

You think they're going to accept 1p a share? You think that....

1p a share? I'd rather it went bust at least trying to make something of itself. Try 20p a share.

I'm inclined to agree with this idea. When our results are out we will see proper movement. I could see 40p on the back of strong results, even without a buyout offer- in which case any bidders would have lost the chance to get a real bargain. Given T Rowe Price and Hosking are in for over 20% between them I don't see us getting ripped off in a sale scenario. We should make £30 million clear profit this year, and probably £50-60 million in 2020. If there's no buyout I see £1 a share in fairly short order.

I'm pretty confident. Just bought another 70,000 shares. I see £1 a share on this within 18 months. Just be nice to have built up a good position in the meantime. Look at it this way, the Indians can play games and they have done so adroitly for a few years- but when the Southern District (New York federal court for reference) rules in July or August the Indians will pay up. Countries whose governments don't honour arbitral awards become pariah states.

We are 90% hedged, however a couple of things to be said. First of all that still gives us a 10% exposure to the spot market, so I reckon a £3-4 million saving- this is, admittedly, small beer. Secondly, it means we will lock in much lower prices for 2020 and beyond.

I'm gonna load up soon. Probably 200-300,000 shares. It's just too good of an opportunity to miss. Possibly 20 to 30 bagger in the next 12 months. Should probably put even more in.

It'll be now or never. I think we could say if it goes through before Christmas it will be in the 40-50p range. If there is a bidding war the price will move up considerably, but I doubt anything would get nailed down before Christmas under that scenario.

Mass shorting would be manna from heaven. Short squeezes. Real ones :) Those are about the only circumstances under which I would abandon the principles of value investing. Just buy whatever they're shorting and extort them. They'll get third degree burns for a while, we'll pocket fortunes and then be able to reinvest them in the depressed wake.

It's not of any interest to short termist day traders, no. That's because they don't care what a company is worth, they only care what someone else thinks it is worth- the greater fool theory in action. It is of interest to serious deep value investors, for entirely proper reasons. Would you buy a $70 million debt owed by a semi-respectable government for £2 million? I would. What about interests in oil and gas fields capable of producing 10,000 bopde? So $70 million a year profit if prices spike again? I'd buy into that for £2 million. Getting both together? Bargain.

It doesn't much matter, what matters is that Flybe's fundamentals are attractive to numerous buyers. Whether it is Stobart or not is irrelevant to us.

Yeah I think we're looking at 40p plus ultimately.

Left. At least! All we have are legal expenses, and the case is still ongoing- in the US mainly. Even if money starts to run low there is a huge industry of litigation funders out there now, who will salivate at the idea of taking this on a CFA ("no win, no fee" to the layman). Just as a shell this company is worth £0.30 a share....easily.

Yes Woody, I have an opinion and it is, broadly, the same as yours. We are looking at quite a decent company, one which is still not anywhere near its market potential. Forget the hundreds of millions worth of landing slots, we have tens of millions of cash (enough to last us months), a good fleet (part of it has some equity in it) etc.

If we don't get bought out, I see £1 a share within a year.

Yes, we know Flybe are hedged for the coming year to 90% of their fuel requirement. Two or three things to add. Firstly, they are ADDING routes, so it is quite likely that they will exceed their anticipated requirement- and thus reap an outsize benefit from lower prices. Secondly, oil prices are on a downward trajectory for the time being and Flybe WILL benefit in a year or two. Rome wasn't built in a day and all of that stuff....

I have said a million times, disagree or agree on where oil prices are going- fine (I think the case is strong that it will continue to fall). Disagree or agree on where currency is going- fine (less certain than oil, but I'm bullish on the Pound). But you can't disagree that if (which seems very very likely given our asset and cash position) Flybe survives their winter of content they will benefit RIDICULOUSLY, in proportion to their market cap, if either of those two variables moves in their direction. Running an airline is a precarious business, we all know that- the difference between a £50 mil loss and a £50 mil profit (and, by extension, between a £900 mil market cap and £20 mil market cap) is largely factors beyond your control. Ok, but just because markets are irrational doesn't mean we shouldn't take advantage.

Flybe is more vulnerable to fuel prices than many others because a) It only makes money in Pounds (and currency hedging helps for a while, but in the end you don't buy 100% of your requirement and you don't buy an infinite number of years ahead). b) As exetrchief said, budget airlines don't get the boost of having a business class or first class with higher paying (much higher paying) passengers. On transatlantic flights the profits, when there are any, come from business class seats.

However, I used the word vulnerable, I might have just as easily said susceptible to or exposed to. As, when the tables turn, which they seem to be, on oil and currency Flybe's management can sit back and reap tens of millions a year in profit. As I said before, as a buyer you COULD view Flybe as just a very cheaply leveraged bet on fuel prices dropping and the Pound strengthening- both of those things are reasonably likely to happen, but if they do then Flybe will be worth 100-200p a share soon enough, so it is very mispriced risk.

We are buying $1 for under $0.10 so I don't mind waiting years more. Hardy need to be a bit more creative, maybe assign the debt (if they can). Either way, putting the $50 million with OUR name on it aside, we have over $1 billion worth of profits for the taking if prices boom again....£2 million is a joke haha with twice that in cash sitting on the balance sheet.

Panic selling and stupidity by the type of people who can't see value when it punches them on the nose.

Could they go bust? Yes. How likely is this? I would say pretty unlikely with zero debt and a heavily invested management team. It is just a matter of waiting for that deep value to realise itself, then the usual suspects will appear in their droves and overpay 3 fold for what we underpaid 100 fold for- suits me :)