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The lab is an astute idea, and should be being instigated as we speak. To be able to offer this as an in-house service will be a BIG draw to early potential partners, will streamline in-house compound development, and will generate revenue. By 2Q, I would hope that some potential customers will be lined up. I expect Cenkos, at this stage, to be able to attract an Institutional Investor on-board, who is interested in providing some capital for growth. If the BOD have demonstrated the model on a shoe-string budget, and Cenkos are unable to do this, then I would at that stage encourage the BOD to explore another main broker. I don’t think that we need a joint broker in a Company of this size.
BC201 should publish in the next six months, and I’d expect an update regarding 401, but as a “nice-to-have”. It remains to me a slight tragedy that no one has been willing to explore 401 in a further trial, as cancer-related cachexia is a massive unmet medical need.
The management team have my full support, and I’d also be fully behind any new BOD/NED buys; confident in the knowledge that all genuine holders want the BOD to do well, stay on, and deliver, which I expect this year. I want to see an end to VAL as a purely trading share, which it is currently if we are honest with ourselves.
If we hit levels at which the BOD can generate options, that would be fantastic. If they do well, retail holders are also doing very well.
The next two quarters have inflection written all over them, and it is time that lady luck gave the Company a thumbs up. There’s been a lot of hard work over the last twelve months, and so something good is due.
The BOD have some good tools to hand, so let’s see what they make.
Good luck to all genuine investors.
Evening.
Good grief, I’ve read some tosh on here today.
Nick Slater with inside information; absolute nonsense. VAL in my opinion are, if anything, overly conservative, so whoever thinks that is well and truly shooting at a very wrong target. This is precisely the reason that I felt the role of “shareholder rep” was somewhat fruitless.
Nick can defend himself, but I can tell you that, as a man whom is vocal in his opinion, sometimes he simply didn’t rub so well with the BOD and, as a result, felt that he wanted to reduce his holding. It’s as simple as that. A shame, as he made many germane suggestions, and continues to do so. Some folk with differing approaches don’t mix so well, and we are where we are, but I can also tell you that although he wants to make money, he also wants, to the same degree, every other genuine investor to make money at the same time, in addition to the BOD. He was a firm supporter of the bonus scheme and I’d wager, in fact, he’d have had it higher. Lots of experience in the markets, and always worth listening to in my opinion.
Aside from that, as Nick has taken a proverbial back-seat in his professional offerings, plus, as everyone in pharma loves “stretched” targets, here are mine for 2023:
I’d like to see one of the two remaining evaluation projects locked into an SPV (obviously two more would be most welcome!), with potentially two more entering evaluation. Out of five SPVs, I think that two could go all the way. Big pharma still has very deep pockets, and I’m seeing some fairly average compounds going through to meet numerical targets, currently. Some are even pushed through, even though there is no indication that they will afford greater efficacy than competitor compounds, which are often further on. KCTNBC is unique, and has, as far as I’m aware, no competition. It would truly be a first-in-class, so hopefully the conversations have commenced. Value accretion occurs over two years, but this could generate early interest, at least in my view. VAL have just published a superb piece on the website – this needs to be communicated via social media, far-and-wide.
I’d like to see a resolution regarding 201, before Spring, either way. Beyond this stage, it may materially impact the momentum built from the new compounds, and I don’t want that to happen. If 201 is signed over, I will doth my cap.
I’d like to see 301 with a new patent or indication, and perhaps bring a resolution to the Japanese partnership. Partnering 201 and 301 was a three-year target by the BOD themselves, as of 2021, so I feel aligned with them in this.
What does confidence mean? None of your posts give any information and are disruptive. I only state you should perhaps consider doing something with your time other than coming here to post one word statements. This is good, this is bad, I am confident, he is a ramper. Come on fella we are not children.
Nobody is asking you to read posts if you don't like them. Coming here and attempting to disrupt posters is asking for trouble. Be careful.
Fredd not everyone has to post everyday. I don't claim to be the expert and post every second without any justification. If I have nothing to add I stay quiet.
Just fed up with Darkhero and his postings over the last week as it is stopping genuine holders from doing research.
Read my last post fella.
These boards are for research and sharing opinions. If you are not able to provide opinions with reasons regarding the stock then it is disruptive to all holders to carry on posting. Nobody wants to read the economy is all gloomy as that is not telling us anything about Valirx.
I am bored of posters coming here for battles with others or to prove a point. Let us keep it relevant guys and if you are unable to provide reasons for opinions then better to step away. It's not telling someone what to do it is just about being respectful to everyone as people want to read opinions that can be backed up right or wrong. If you have nothing to add then don't post.
These boards are for research and also to express opinions. Both Iceman and PM are long term investors and I for one have learnt from some of the long term holders here including those two which has led to me buying more shares recently.
Darkhero- You are correct everyone should do research but at the same time this board was a great board and has become a bit toxic recently. I would like to hear your views on the following because I have lost track recently and I was not following this share for a while before I added.
1) Why has val 401 not completed a deal yet? What are the possible reasons?
2) Is VAL 301 at the evaluation stage, spv or pre-clinical and in your opinion do you think they have a chance of finally securing a deal this year? How much do you anticipate the estimated value range of this drug will be once results are known are we talking 100k, 1 million, 10 million?
3) Given the previous clinical data regarding VAL201 do you think Valirx can find an alternative partner quickly should the deal with TX fail? If not why not?
4) You claim you are really excited about the lab. Can you state the potential value of any contracts and how long each one is likely to take? How long would it take to generate revenue and how much savings do you anticipate if they were to develop these drugs in the lab rather than outsourcing these to other labs?
5) You stated you are excited regarding the triple negative cancer drug. Can you explain why you find it exciting and what kind of deals will Valirx look for and when?
Your thoughts are greatly appreciated Darkhero.
Darkhero- happy new year.
I don’t feel Valirx holders are gaining anything from your posting. It’s what everyone knows but nothing is stopping a significantly higher valuation in this market.
It might be best if you politely stopped posting.
Enjoy your day.
With considerable debt and huge dilution. Note debt to be converted into equity. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
On 24 June 2022, 4D pharma plc was placed into administration and James Clark and David Pike of Interpath Advisory were appointed as joint administrators to 4D pharma plc. Trading of the Company's Ordinary Shares on AIM was suspended on the same day. The Company was placed in administration by Oxford Finance who held approximately $13,216,482 of secured debt against the Company's assets. On 7 October 2022, this debt was acquired by Armistice, a U.S. based specialist healthcare investor, with a view to converting the debt into equity alongside an equity investment to bring the Company out of administration.
As an intermediate step towards the Company looking to exit administration and seeking the lifting of the suspension of the Company's Ordinary Shares on AIM, the Financing Package was offered by Armistice (with no input from the Joint Administrators). The equity component of the Financing Package is subject to Shareholder approval. Under the terms of the Financing Package, the Company and Armistice have agreed an amendment to the Loan Agreement which allowed a further $1,600,000 to be made available to the Company, a new Subordinated Loan Agreement (under which Duncan Peyton and Alex Stevenson act as lenders to the Company alongside Armistice) which allows an additional $600,000 to be made available to the Company and an equity fundraising totaling up to $15,000,000. Additionally, amendments have been made to the Loan Agreement which would allow outstanding amounts due to be convertible into Ordinary Shares and/or Pre-Payment Warrants (subject to Shareholder approval).
I guess where we all went wrong was with the financials and not the drugs in the portfolio. 6p might seem like value but with the company losing over 1 million pounds a week would any cash bailout from a placing be able to keep the company alive for long? All good ramping again but if it means losing everything because the outgoings are very high then about time we hit reality. Also the 6p would be after a very large dilution as I understand it.
One would have to decide whether they feel DDDD can recover but based on financials and not false hope that some drug will be worth millions many years later. If a person has an average of 36p could they even get half of that money back if the SP recovered to 18p or would that probability be better on another undervalued AIM low market cap pharma such as Valirx moving to 25-30p where the financials are stronger. It all depends on what each individual thinks is the best solution but careful attention is needed only on the financials at the moment to see if DDDD is worthwhile and whether it presents an opportunity to build or sell.
Fredd- Suzy knows best mate and acts in the best interests of the company. She knows what is happening behind the scenes and we don't. Most individuals especially those that have sold some or are not invested are looking to enter or enter again with the sold amount at a cheaper price. Never trust anyway.
I am looking forward to the revenue generating lab and the 201 deal. Onwards to upwards.
The best post of the weekend. I will be getting some money soon to invest again. GL all here.
I've been around the block in biotech for a number of years, like many others, some of whom invest in VAL, so I can estimate values of SPVs to levels that I think are reasonable; not too rampy, but conversely not too conservative, either.My personal experiences of the market would give a value to any niche, novel, first-in-class compound entering a SPV of around the 10M mark. This is reasonable. The first 6 months in an SPV will build the clinical rationale of the compound with efficacy testing, extending to the year 1 mark, so, at that stage, we'd be looking at around 25M in value. Concomitant to this would be shorter-term safety testing. In year two, we'd have more complex safety testing to calculate Phase 1 doses, and being oncology for the ones under evaluation, that should be fairly swift. During the second year, if those criteria are met, then we'd have a value of around 50M, per compound. At commercialisation, assuming VAL want to take it all the way to being clinic-ready, the valuation could be anywhere between 50 and 150M, assuming a clinical milestone package of 3-500M, and an assumed 7% ultimate royalty. It goes without saying that a deal for 201 will give confidence to this strategy, and allow a swifter realisation and re-rate of the SP to reflect this.If VAL ultimately have 3-5 SPVs, assuming a further dilution, over 2-3 years, of 40M new shares (obviously this might not happen), then the MCap would conceivably be 250M (assuming majority ownership), so I like the strategy and the odds, regarding the SP here, at 140M shares. The chances of an SPV being "bought" early, say within a year of launch, out of 3-5 opportunities, I would say are quite high, as a bigger pharma is likely going to be tempted by a given platform at some stage. I would therefore expect a "deal" anytime in the short to medium term.Either way, at a MCap of 15M, I, for one, despite being as displeased as many others with TX, would urge SHs to look at the wider strategy. It isn't going to take long for the BOD to provide material updates around the SPVs in the next few months, by which time, the MCap should be re-rating anyway. I have already pressed Suzy for the need to do this.In any case, I'm finding it of limited value to constantly beat the BOD over the head regarding 201, having been privy to several conversations recently. They know how we feel, but they are not going to bend. It's frustrating, but it isn't going to change. So my efforts will be focused on trying to influence a proactive engagement with the new SPVs. If folk can't get past 201, that's fair enough. It wasn't an ideal scenario, and it isn't an ideal situation, but it is the result of a slightly dog-eared inherited "project". To my mind, it's going to be better to press on the projects that are fully under the control of the BOD, and that is the SPVs. I will always hold feet to the fire for the SHs
He is just one person. Don't see the issue. He probably sold a few to buy elsewhere. Everyone does that. If Mark sells more at these levels then it could mean something but he still holds significant amount. This is a strong buy at this price. Remember our stake in dynasty is probably worth 200-500% of our SP value at the moment.
Note a further update will be made in due course.
10p is a given. Update 201 as stated in the RNS below, breast cancer then deal 50p-70p I think. Additional shares cannot do anything at the current price. This is for much later but first we enjoy the run to 50p.