Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
There is a tidal wave coming in the form of an economic crash - of this we are certain. To date I have not read about banks being in difficulty. I wonder, when the full economic impact of the lockdown hits, what the effects on Lloyds Bank and the banking sector in general will be.
Any thoughts?
On the one hand, there is the negative affect that the media reports have had on the share price. They involked a sense of moral indignation and that BooHoo were "the bad guys" who were possibly involved in illegal employment practices, moden slavery, etc., and thus investors pulled out.
On the other hand, what investors and reporters think might not have any similarity to what customers think. Customers might not care in the slightest about the shrill media reports, and might qute happily continue clicking "Add to cart" because so long as they get their cool summer slacks at the amazing price, they'll buy.
However, there have been several recent events in the Western world (protests about human rights issues, treating people fairly, and holding past figures accountable for their moral failings, etc.) that have been immensely powerful, and the this sentiment seems to be shared stringly by a significant number of younger people. Or more specifically, of people in the same age category as Boohoo's customers.
Thus it is paramount that Boohoo find out what will put their customers' minds at ease, and address that, so that those customers feel no moral hinderance to buying their products.
I'm sticking with GDR for the long term because I believe that CEO Budd's heart is in the right place, and that his desire to improve the lives of people will drive his company to improve the state of health technology in the world. But I'm recalibrating my estimates about where I should derive profiits.
'twas a genuine thought I've had many an hour these past few days. We must all be thinking it!
What the hell am I doing with this small time gamble when there are several other solidly performing, established stocks (such as Tesla) that have proven their worth already!
starresnstoff: Thanks for the info. It is a very good thing that proper controls and validation are taking place. Now that you mention it, it should actually be in GDR's favour that the approvals process is taking a relatively long time.
The virus is very much in decline. In the UK, the peak of deaths, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), was 8th April - that's right, three months ago. The number of daily deaths has been in decline ever since.
If you're talking about the number of people that have tested positive, then that has indeed been increasing. But that is because the number of tests that is being done has also been increasing. A better (but not perfect) indication of the spread is the percentage of new people testing positive per day.
For example, today the latest figures for the UK are 820 new cases,out of 153,667 tests (0.5%)
On 11 June, there were 1,266 new cases out of 197,007 tests (0.6%)
On 11 May, there were 3,877 new cases out of 65,337 people tested (5.9%%)
On 11 Apr, there were 5,234 new cases out of 12,993 people tested (40%)
So 40% reduces to 5.9% reduces to 0.6% reduced to 0.5%. That looks like a decline to me.
(Figures obtained from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public)
My figures we estimates, as I stated, but I showed what my estimates were based on. Could you show how you and others come to the figure of sales of £1.5m/week?
Here is what I think:
- Even though GDR may very well have produced a top quality product, the unfortunate reality is that it obviously not of sufficient quality to persuaded the regulators of all the approached countries nor the many approached customers to make this product available. If the product really were something special, we would have seen a commensuate response from both regulators and customers.
- There are hundreds of companies around the world producing a similar product. Many of these companies have resources, experience, and medical/scientific knowledge that far exceed GDR's.
- I have not seen any evidence that indicates that GDR or its CEO has a drive or urgency to bring a profitable product to market in a timely manner. On the contrary, the evidence I have seen, both in the RNS releases and the recent investor presentation, strongly suggests the CEO (and thus GDR) is driven primarily by a strong moral desire to achieve significant, meaningful advances in health. While the world is a better place with companies like GDR, this does not traslate into a soaring share price (sorry to burst your bubbles).
- Having said that, the fact that £1m of conditional sales have been taken in 2-3 months is indeed significant. This is around 40% of all of last year's sales in the space of 2 months; and for one subset of produce alone. If I had to guess, I would estimate that, assuming approval is granted in all sales areas, we would see between £2.5m to £10m in additional sales in the short term (i.e. the next 6 months). If the virus continues on for many more months and into next year, these sales contracts may also continue on as well; but if the virus continues to decline (as seems to be the general trajectory), then the demand for COVID tests will also decline.
For me, I would estimate that a likely outcome would be that GDR achieve between £2.5m to £10m of sales for its COVID teat, in addition to it regular revenue. This corresponds to an estimated annual revenue between £5m to £12m, which is 2 to 5 times last year's revenue.
I'm not sure how this translates to an expectation of share price, but purely by applying the difference: GDR's share price last year was around 20p; increase that by 2 to 5 times, yeilds an estimated share price of 40p to 100p.
So perhaps the placing price of 80p was not far off the mark
Rollinginit, if you want to define an indicative order as a sale, and to add the £1m to Revenue, that's fine. But you must also then be prepared for the possibility for those sales to be subsequently refunded in the event that regulatory approval is not granted.
Though in practice, I imagine that GDR will achieve approval - maybe just not on the first attempt, and thus it may take some time for them to achieve it.
The LSE RNS page has a link to an RNS titled "New Genedrive® 96 Exporter software" for GDR tis morning, but the link yeilds a 404 error. This RNS is not on the London Stock Exchange website. Is this just a mistake on LSE?
Now that is curious. The WHO document says the GDR test is "awaiting submission" for both the dossier review and the QMS desk assessment. It would be nice to know precisely what "awaiting submission" means. Quite likely it means that GDR have advised the WHO of their product and of their intention to make a submission of relevant documents and a test kit (so it is on the list), but GDR have not yet submitted these to the WHO.
I'm actually trying to buy shares now, but the platform is not letting me. Why is that? Does that mean too many people are trying to buy and the platform cannot keep up, or is something else going on? I've never had this happen before.
I'm considering buying some shares via the PrimaryBid.com offer. But if I do, I'm not sure whether I would receive the interim dividend as announced.
The ex-dividend date is 16 July, and the shares bought through the PrimaryBid.com offer will be admitted at 08:00 a.m. on 16 July 2020. I'm assuming that, even though I purchase the shares via the offer today, the shares will not be deemed to be purchased until 08:00am on 16th July, thus I will not be eligible for the interim dividend?