OilSpelunker27 Jun 2015 11:37
Firstly, I'm gonna state for the record that I don't believe a word you say. For someone who apparently has a net worth of $25m, your 30 day posting history shows that you only comment on MXP, a stock which is suspended, and therefore no one could sell even if they did give your decamping ramblings a shred of credibility. The only way you could have that many assets was if you inherited a much larger sum, and that's what your currently left with after you've lost the majority of it.
Most people on here have stated their investment is a punt. A binary bet wether the company will survive (at least in the short term) or wether its straight into admin. I don't think there are many who will hold long term if the share starts trading again, and in the event it does will probably make a tidy sum from the initial jump in price. Unfortunately you won't be one of them, as your buy--in price has to be higher given that you have told us you have invested c.£350k (roughly $500k converted at a generous 1.75$/£), and if your average is i below 0.535p you would need to notify the exchange that you hold over 3% of shares.
Anyway, ignoring the above, the key concerns with the company mainly come down to cash flow, with both the tax payment to the Kazakh authorities and the upcoming debt capital repayments both being a significant drain on cash - specifically free cash that is no longer available following the decrease in oil price. The company has stated that the breakeven price moving forward in $85, so below that we are in trouble.
The operational activity of the company is strong, with cash flow from operations of $27.5m. Therefore any realistic recovery plan will be dependent on 1) raising equity and/or 2) restructuring the debt to defer the capital repayments.
Personally i don't think either of these are out of the question. We know they had agreement to sell additional equity, and whilst this is being renegotiated due to the change in oil price, I still see this happening (albeit at a different price), as fundamentally the company is pumping oil and making cash from its operations - a lot more than others are doing.
We also know that Sberbank are the lender - and also a significant equity holder with just over 9% of equity. Are they therefore going to want the company to go into admin? probably not as they lose on both the debt and equity side. Obviously conspiracy theorists will say that the bank wants the company to go bust so that it can take all the assets for itself, but thats just not how things work. Reputation ally banks don't like seizing assets, they would much rather work with a client to come to a mutually beneficial solution - just imagine if Sberbank acted unreasonably and tried to seize assets...how many future customers would they lose out of fear of the same thing happening? Just not worth it.
So I still remain confident.