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hmmmm firstly, GGG only owns half of BB, so the $21 figure should be $42. Plus, GGG don't have any "proven reserves". They have 700k indicated resource, and the rest inferred resource. A reserve is much better than a resource, and will require more drilling to achieve. Still, when you do the sums this does look like an attractive play. Good news today, still a bit murky but encouraging that it's getting sorted
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10951170 results tomorrow at 7am. Webcast & Conference call at 4pm.
results due in 2 days...........and they are expected to be good (famous last words) GL all the holders here
weaver12 over on iii................... ............................ Thought I'd do a bit more research on what to expect in August 2011 and beyond: 1) Financial results on August 18th (date taken from website) At the end of Q3 2011 we had produced 42,086 oz and had $15.3m in cash (£9.5m). The full year production RNS stated we had produced 55,820 oz for 2011, therefore Q4 production was 13,734 oz. The cash cost in Q3 was $521/oz (incredibly low). If the same cash cost is acheived in Q4 at an average gold price of $1450 (estimated) the pre-tax profit will be $12.7m (£8m). Therefore I calculate that the pre-tax profit for 2011 will be £9.5m (Q1-3)+ £8m (Q4) = £17.5m. If the placing £5m is added that makes £22.5m cash at start of Q1 2012. ** as we have been told the full 2011 production figures there will be no nasty suprises (risk free IMO) 2) Forecast for 2012 On the 18th August we will be given a forecast for 2012. The cash cost is likely to be $750 tops and the oz will be 55K+. If the gold price is say $1600 (could be much more) this could produce a pre-tax profit of £46m (at $1600). 3) Sobresaliente drilling A NI 43-101 resource upgrade will be announced in August 2011 4) Van Muerta drilling A maiden NI 43-101 resource will be annouced in August 2011 5) Pantanillo project The pre-feasibility study will be comissioned end of 2011 6) Arenal Deeps First ore development 2011 7) Talco Gold Chili This was the reason behind the £5m 66p recent placing. Initial drilling program to commence in Q4 2011. 8) Dividend 2011?? A dividend was paid in the finanical years of 2007 and 2008. I see no reason why a dividend is not be paid in 2011. This would help stabilise the share price post August 18th. Summary: The current market cap is c£55m at 74p. The cash I forecast to be £17.5m (exlcuding the placing £5m) at end of Q4 2011. With a 2012 forecast pre-tax profit of £40m+ (my estimate) I see no reason why OMI is not valued at c£100m (this would equate to a share price of £1.28. August is an exiciting time for Orosur Mining shareholders. If the Sobresaliente & Van Muerta NI 43-101 resource updates are released prior to August 18th (likely as they could provide part of the EOY results summary) the share price could be in the 80p-85p range prior to the 18th. There is also the possibility of the gold price soaring north of $1600oz which would help! It is therefore possible that on the 18th there could be an assault on £1/share
lots of news due this month. 1. Financial results on the 18th - expected to be very good 2. Maiden JORC for Van Muerta 3. Updated JORC for Pantanillo
updates/observations Izzy, Very much on my watchlist - curious as to where you got the CAPEX figure from? as it's very encouraging. Also good to see the news on galaxy recently.
a bit more chat on ADVFN, for those who are interested. tomc1 - I'm starting to favour gold producers as well, so will have a look at the ones you mentioned. Think that there may be a pull back if/when US announces deal to avoid default, maybe for a couple of days. The idea is to take some new positions then.......
just to make you aware, the GGG bb on advfn is really good, with the likes of Temujin (see 15 june post below) providing regular thoughts on the current situation. My understanding is that at a recent presentation, the director of Auzex said that the JORC would be released shortly after the companies had come to an agreement. There has been a noticable toning down of the angry rhetoric between the companies, apparently they met in London. Auzex will, theoretically, run out of money in the next few months. This puts GGG in a strong position, and it would apear that now we are slowly moving towards some good news. It's impossible to say when it will come, could still be months, or could be a couple of weeks. But it should be 2 bits of news coming almost together, and hopefully they'll both be good.
bziz, I was looking at Google as well Sorry for my inaccurate post - have been doing that alot lately........... Will have to buy back in now! Luckily the drop since I sold this morning may cancel out my foolishness so it doesn't cost me any shares overall.
they've had some pretty significant dilution recently. In a letter to shareholders, the BoD explained that this was advance the shareholders interest, although obviously not in the very short term. We are talking about serious levels of funding, and it will be good for GXY and CRHL shareholders in the long run. But after going down last night, and the recent dilution of holding in Galaxy (now at just under 12%), the stake in galaxy is worth about £14mil, or just over 2p. So the rest is tenth legion. The April update said the drilling was virtually completed, so an update in the next few weeks, maybe even some results, could turn this around very sharply. I sold out this am after the galaxy drop, will hopefully get the chance to get back in here before tenth legion results. Surprised at the level of the drop so far today however, Galaxy only went down 10% or so......not the end of the world, and like I said, results could be close.
try removing the ")" at the end of the link..... The new site looks very good, I feel
Great post, again, Izzy Vice - good points there about when the next piece of news will come. For me though, CRHL is an investment company as much as anything else (indeed that's where most of our mcap is) and one of the reasons I bought in here a few weeks ago is that I feel with CRHL you have a fairly good chance of news "out of the blue" which is the news that can really impact SP. The chinese are on the hunt for resources and CRHL has, as Izzy points out, great II backing in terms of funding. Plus galaxy progress, and possible results from tenth legion......I know you should invest for the long term, and I intend to, but we could have a very good 3 months or so here.
Results include: - 1 metre at 23.80 g/t gold from 34m; - 3m at 9.33 g/t gold from 158m; and - 7m at 24.46 g/t gold from 36m, including 1m at 164 g/t gold from 38m. so......kerching! basically :) This news, along with the takeover, is going to generate alot of interest in the project. Hopefully we can start going up leading towards a takeover (starting to think we are going to have to up the offer though!)
news from Auzex - some more good drill results, now expecting resource upgrade in May http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/15231/auzex-resources-high-grade-gold-hits-to-expand-resource-at-bullabulling-15231.html
during that plus 6 months delay, we had massive news on BB, regarding a highly significant increase to the resource. I'm not saying that the website is hugely important, but we are talking about major developments here, on a potentially huge asset, and 6 months + out of date is such a significant amount of time that I feel this could work in GGG's favour. Anyway, that's my little GGG research burst done for the night. Feeling pretty positive (in case you hadn't noticed!)
that up until a couple of weeks ago, the page about Bullabulling on the Auzex website said. " drilling has continued at Bullabulling, and we expect resuts to be announced in August/Septemeber 2010" or something to that effect. Kind of put's lie to the claim that Auzex is and has been taking BB seriously. Not updating their website re: Bullabulling, for well over 6 months, is pretty shoddy and I'm sure will have been noticed by Auzex shareholders :)
"John Barton is a Mineral Processing Engineer who was the past President of the Western Australian Mining Club" Sounds like a fairly important and well connected chap!
At end of year was about $7,000,000 AD, due to a placing in Nov Less than GGG should have, but not by as much as I was hoping for. Still should make GGG a bit more attractive to Azx holders though.
typing & spelling there! Clearly getting a bit over excited with this at the moment. Never been a shareholder during a takeover before, and it's all very interesting :)
it certainly is interesting. IMO (and I know I'm biased here), AZX have used some very selective reasoning there. They dismissed the 40% odd premium, saying that because of recent rises the preminum is now only a few percent. Ignores the fact (?) that the SP rise has been down to the takeover bid. When talking about the merger, they say that Auzex would have less than half the new, combined group, despite providing more than half the "assets" even though the other assets Auzex hold are relatively minor (at this stage) exploration projects, not development ones. Also, Auzex completely neglects to mention the very strong cash position of GGG, and even if Auzex don't like to admit it, cash is an asset - and a very attractive asset to shareholders who know that an expensive drilling campaign is coming up and (and this is the crucial bit) want to avoid dilution of there share in a fundraising. Will try and find out about Auzex's cash position when I can, as I feel this could be a key aspect in shareholders decision making. To say GGG recent hiring of highly experienced engineers & consultants is "disingenous" (meaning false or insincere) smacks of panic and frankly is pretty insulting to those who've just been hired - these people are the "who's who" of mining in Oz (40 years experience, highly regarded) and eads me to suspect that those in the know within the industry are backing GGG. Clearly a company looking to acquire full control of a mine in West Australia will want engineers with experience of Developing mines in west Oz (inc the Coolgardie region). Obviously I'm hoping that Auzex shareholder see it the same way, and also take into account GGG's statements Both sides are making very definative, damning statements about the other, with some selective reasoning (on both sides but IMO far more on the Auzex side). This could drag on, but that may not be as bad for shareholders as first appears because. 1.) It's going to bring a hell of alot of attention to the project and it's massive potential. 2) It's a non-cash, scrips offer. As far as I can see, this means that there is no set price that we can reach pre-deal, which will lead investors to say "right thats the offer price, so it's not going to go above that until a deal is announced, I won't buy any more now" and will mean that people are happy to keep piling in. That no 2 point I'm not entriely sure about, would appreciate a correction or some advice on this. Overall, I'm not as relaxed about GGG in the ST as I was before these issues, but the potential has risen significantly and at the monet, in the GGG vs AZX tussle, I think GGG are winning......