Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BigSlick7, of course you're absolutely right in what you say about investors being duped by the newsflow with Saietta. I was indeed one of them! And of course you're absolutely right about Vox pumping things up all over the place - they are paid by the companies to disseminate their corporate PR so it really is to be expected. It's not about losing respect for Paul Hill - he knows his stuff - but to pump companies is his job at Vox. However, Justin Waite is particularly clueless. I notice he's been removed from Vox and stopped from hosting his daily podcast, having completely lost it in one of his shows a couple of weeks ago.
However, when you say, referring to Saietta shareholders, "It did make me wonder how much research they do, and how much of an understanding they have in that type of business process before investing... I personally think they just wanted to invest in a company with a lot of news flow", the irony is not lost on me, because I can't help wondering if that description doesn't apply to you, BigSlick7, in relation to Polarean? After all, a few months ago Vox were shamelessly propagating endless PR, or newsflow as you put it, about POLX too.
I don't mean to doubt in any way your or any other bullish poster's understanding of the company and its products. However, what pre-profitable companies like Saietta & Renalytix have painfully taught me is no matter how well put together the corporate PR, no matter how genuinely amazing the product is, there 's absolutely no certainty at all that decent sales will follow. In the case of RENX, the company recently presented me with a 'get out of jail free' card in the shape of a massive short spike up in the share price that allowed me to substantially reduce my holding for a much diminished loss.
We all know the simple equation: a pre-profitable company + no news on substantive sales = a tricky fundraise looming. In the case of Saietta, it was so tricky that, at the time of writing, they haven't raised a dime... it would seem none of the investors who ponied up 17p a share at the last fundraise are interested! So the entire company has a mkt cap of < £1m and is a week away from turning out the lights.... but I digress...
I'm not giving up on UK companies, but after my experience of SED and RENX, I'm de-risking my portfolio and focussing my attention more on cash-generative mid-caps with strong(ish) balance sheets which are seriously undervalued (and there are plenty of those). In that vein, I sold half my (fairly small) holding in POLX this morning. Took a nasty cold bath on it, but I'm worried this might go much lower so am happy to get some money out of it. I hope for the sake of all holders that it multi-bags and I've still got some skin in the game if it does. And if decent sales start getting RNS'd, I'll certainly consider eating humble pie and buying back in - no problem - even at a higher price - I keep an open mind.
I won't bother with that read, because I've got you! Thanks 404.
404, "Required to disclose shareholding under takeover rules". Forgive my stupidity, but what takeover? Has there been a public announcement of a takeover or even of an approach?
404, "the 8.3 forms are required for shareholders with 1% or more". Required for what?
Lots of these RNS's associated with rules on the Takeover Code.
I know they're hoping for one, but has there actually been any offer for the company? Why are the RNS's coming out, does anyone know?
No worries.
The value destruction while we are being asked to be patient is remarkable. It would need to 10-bag to get back to where it was just a year ago. Sucking up the company PR about obtaining this and that coverage is one thing - most of these pre-profitable companies have a good story to tell - but it's hard sales that will keep the lights on.
Sooner or later this company will run out of money without substantive sales...
Oh, thanks FlyingHigher. I'll be alright. It's not like I just bought recently. I've been averaging down for many months and so most of the financial damage was already done. Plenty of lessons learnt and to be learnt... but I'm not going to be too hard on myself as it's been possibly the most difficult couple of years in AIM history. Good luck.
I don't know what their holdings are but I reckon v small. Certainly none of them appear on the list of significant shareholders. Another red flag in retrospect.
This was my 2nd largest directly held share by money spent and I've almost certainly lost the lot. However, I don't have to sell the house, don't have to sell the car, don't have to sell the wife. I'll just have to make the money back elsewhere and , hopefully, in a couple of year's time Saietta will be just a distant blip in my investing journey.
As for tonight, I might order a curry, crack open a few tinnies, and watch a collection of Tony Gott's old interviews on Vox. Should be a laugh.
Actually it doesn't Latino. "Cash flow model" allows them to say "Whilst the Company's cashflow model shows positive cash balances to the end of March, the Company's Directors are becoming increasingly aware that certain contracted cash receipts may be withheld, therefore bringing forward the date, absent any further funding, on which the Company can no longer solvently trade". So it appears they didn't have the cash, even until March.
Update 10 days ago said the company "has positive cash balances that take it through to the end of March 2024". Today it's the company's "cashflow model shows positive cash balances to the end of March". So, basically, when they said they had the cash, they didn't, they just hoped to.
Old Gott got himself a juicy little pre-pack Admin? Certainly appears that's what's being lined up.
I've lost my investment, but this will make a great case study cataloguing the dodgiest practises on the AIM market.
Totally leaky - look at the share price action yesterday leading up to this morning's RNS.
Naughty, naughty insiders!
Thanks smythsmoneybox. Guessed as much. A disingenuous RNS then, that purports to be a Full Year Trading Update, to gloss over these things and only mention revenue growth, but par for the course on AIM I'm afraid.
Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, etc, blah blah....
I agree, the update doesn't read so bad as to elicit a 50% share price drop... unless the market is spooked that they only quote revenue kpi's - and make no mention of attendant costs and, therefore, profits (or loss). I must admit, it always raises my suspicion when management omit such fundamental parts of the accounting equation in a Full Year Trading Update. Anyone got a handle on STX's profitability or cash burn rate?
Absolutely. Someone on the other chatline said that Mr Gott's shareholding in Saietta amounts to £1500 at current prices. Hardly a ringing endorsement from our esteemed executive chairman.
As for Vox, at best it's just entertainment value, at worst misleading. Talk about disappearing persons, I see that Mr Hill's sparring partner Justin Waite appears to have been stopped from hosting his daily podcast show on Vox, having lost it on a podcast last week (the show has been taken down). Probably a good thing as it's just so much noise we could all do without.
The best time to sell was earlier this morning. Now we have liquidity issues as I'm not getting a sell quote for any amount over £400. Unfortunately, I banked a chunk of shares last thing yesterday at 45p... instead of waiting until this morning when I could've got 70p.... but then I'm hardly surprised as I've been wrong-footed all the way along with this mercurial share! A few days ago RENX was 10p. Who'd have thought that it would rise 600%, seemingly on the back of that innocuous RNS about expanded coverage? This is indeed a leaky company and, If it is takeover whispers behind the rise, our American friends seem to know all about it well before us backwater AIM punters.
Anyway, all-in-all, compared to a few days ago, I feel great... very happy to have banked some at 45p and I feel like I've been given a get out of jail not free but at substantially reduced cost card.
And I'll be very happy indeed if this signals RENX becoming some sort of meme stock - a la GameStop - as there'll be further good opportunities ahead to exit. I'm thinking meme stock features because there's been no communication from the company to explain this rise.
I look forward to reading commentary from the RENX old-timers like SB, Hawker and Paddyboy, as it's been a bizarre few days.
In the last 2 years it certainly has been Dandanman. Prior to that, averaging down had been a profitable strategy for me.
You're not the only one Feeks, not that that's any consolation. I also kept averaging down, believing the narrative that management had a handle on things and that the placing 3 months ago would see us through to commercial lift-off.
Pumped by Vox, endorsed by The Oak Bloke (yup, another dud), and here we are...