Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
...the share price is suffering a bit of a collapse today.
Quoted 27.5p to buy, which I think is an all-time low.
Company is funded through to Q1 2025, which presumably means a placing will be required towards the latter part of this year...
Extreme intraday movements this afternoon (+/-16%). Minimal liquidity....
I can't see them paying additional fees for a main listing. Far more likely they'll delist if things continue like this. What is the point of any London listing if the few UK public market investors who are left, don't want your shares?
If only I knew what will happen here, because the market appears to be pricing armageddon.
Just checking in. Very quiet board and I can see why. The company appears to be slowly but surely using up all its cash. I cashed out in April 2023 for 47p, taking an overall loss, since when the sp has dropped another 50%+.
Is the destiny of this company to delist and repair itself in private hands? Views most welcome.
Absolutely. There is no liquidity at this end of the UK market, resulting in the share price drifting lower and lower. Companies are delisting because they are not getting fair value on AIM. As an example, it was institutional investors apparently who forced the recent agreed sale of Accrol Group plc for a derisory 11% premium to the previous day's share price, because they believed they would get better value and better prospects for company funding, if it went private. The institutional investor(s) in question wanted out but knew that to sell a large holding of an illiquid company would trash the share price, so this 'forced sale' at a cheap price was the only sensible way for them to exit the company. It's these sorts of shenanigans which are making it almost impossible to invest in small UK companies.
Indeed, seems I was correct when I said management may be having doubts about raising the money on AIM for the paper mill. According to a summary I heard on Ian King's programme, Accrol's management felt that their considerable success in turning the company around had not been rewarded in share price terms on the AIM market, making it difficult to fund any future investments (by which I presume they mean the paper mill). If true, I mean if poorer companies keep getting overly punished and better companies keep getting no reward, it kind of makes investing in AIM a joke! On the other hand, why does every company seem to need to fund their investments with debt or share placings? Why can't they finance growth the old fashioned way out of cash earnings?
I sincerely hope so, because I've joined the fun as of 4pm today.
85.2p paid. Feels cheap, but let's see.
No worries recklessferret. By the way, I very much agree with yr comment that management came across as down to earth and competent... which makes this outcome all the more disappointing, as you say. Maybe they were concerned about raising the money for this infamous paper mill on AIM? Now one presumes that funding is secured. Also secure, I'm quite certain, are the current management, as I can't see the new owners replacing them with an all-Portuguese team. Nice work for them.
You're more forgiving than I am recklessferret.
To answer your question, in my experience of takeovers (for what it's worth), the share price typically settles 3-4% below the offer price. I take this to indicate the time value of money - i.e. you can cash out today or wait a while to get the extra 3-4%. The fact that the share price has already hit the offer price this morning suggests to me that at least some investors are unimpressed and are holding out for a better deal. Which is why I've sold some, but also kept some just in case.
Hi scb, thanks for that. I see container costs have gone up more than I thought. It left me confused, because I've also read from several sources that the shipping industry was managing this whole Israel/Palestine/Houthi crisis fairly well. So, I dug up the same World Container Index, but a chart for the last 12 years, not 1 year:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/44756/drewry-world-container-index
I think this shows quite nicely that although container costs are slightly elevated from normal, they are still well below where they were post-covid... which suggests to me that shipping is coping ok. But cheers for prompting me to think more about this aspect.
Hey, Bfdinvestor, 'twas me asking that question.
So, if I've got you right, you're saying that the results this May will be the last time Boohoo's poor trading performance can be legitimately blamed on Covid or Ukraine. That is amazingly generous and forgiving towards Boohoo! Firstly, let's not forget, covid was a net positive for the company - customers at home, online, and with lockdown cash burning a hole in their pockets. Secondly, any post-covid supply chain disruptions or Ukraine war increased shipping costs have long since normalised - they certainly have for the likes of Next and Inditex (Zara), who are doing just fine thank you. In fact, I read that shipping costs are currently *below* historical norms.... so in the unlikely event that Boohoo knocks it out of the park , will you be saying something like "we should take these results with a pinch of salt because they are flattered by unusually low shipping costs"? I somehow doubt it! And what happens if the company continues to underperform beyond May? Will there be new excuses? Or maybe one of the golden oldies, you know, conspiracies about MMs and shorters and the like? (sorry, I know you don't like the word 'excuse', so I'll say 'reason'.... but, for me, if the same reason keeps getting used again and again, it eventually becomes an excuse).
Anyway, differences of opinion. My patience clearly wears thinner than yours.
Honestly, scb, as Daytrade said!
Bfdinvestor, keeping the discussion sensible, for how long will covid, or the post-covid world, be used as an excuse for Boohoo's poor performance? Is the Ukraine war materially affecting the supply of or demand for Boohoo products today? Will we be using the next war as an excuse? I suppose we will be if it's WW3.
I think Quakerjon sums it up for most of us LTH's. We rather wish we hadn't invested in the 1st place, but here we are, somewhat stuck with a v low share price and hoping things will change for the better.
Well, that's a v bullish view.
The pandemic was 4 years ago (how time flies), not 'a year or two'. Bigger picture: when I superimpose Next's share price over Boohoo's, whether over 1, 3, 5, or 10 years, there really is no contest.
There's quite a lot of literature out there acknowledging that Lord Wolfson and his team at Next are some of the best managers in UK plc, let alone UK retail, but if you think Boohoo's management are better, that's fine.
To get you started on your reading of Wolfson, if yr interested:
https://www.retail-week.com/fashion/wolfsons-wisdom-how-next-has-stayed-successful-for-more-than-20-years/7044757.article
Hi scb. To be clear, I didn't say Boohoo have never beaten guidance - I expect they have done back in the day - so, no untruths from me and please don't put other words in my mouth.
The company I was referring to was Next plc, a well known fashion retailer listed in London, who released their results today.
Regarding the comparison I was making, of course you're entitled to believe that Boohoo possesses a superior management team to Next and that Boohoo regularly beats guidance in the way that Next does, but I beg to differ. I should say that the relative share price performance between the 2 companies doesn't back you up in this.
Anyway, the point is, for me, as a Boohoo holder, I can't help but look enviously at Next whenever they report.
Solid results from the UK's premier fashion retailer today. Any read-across for Boohoo's next update? Of course not. One company has a top-notch management team - the best in the business - who are skilled at managing expectations by under-promising and over-delivering. The other company, well, managed by a bunch of chancers probably even now plotting to take the company private for a song, leaving investors high & dry. Chalk and cheese.