Member Info for Ultrashort

As far as I'm aware FY results announcement is due on or around 15 September? I'm hoping we also get a positive production update from elikhulu in this announcement and if results aren't as bad as what's been priced in, and if production guidance is improved or at least in line with expectations we could see a rerating here (hopefully) and move higher. Fingers crossed GLA

Has narrowed significantly. That's more like it. Long may it last

Can't disagree with that. Although I'm not a fan of the royal Sheba project as it will require large investment which inevitably means a capital raising via share placing given the current debt position. Sheba is a low grade resource i.e. they have to mine thousands of tons of material for a few grams of gold per ton. Very high cost production and they are seeing whether this can be scaled up to make it profitable. I for one hope they don't pursue this as the company is well positioned as it is and as a shareholder sitting on a major loss already the last thing I want is for my holding to be diluted by a placing or rights issue. GLA

Spoke too soon lol

Aaaaand I see that the spread has narrowed meaningfully today (hope it stays that way)! Sure hope that the worst is behind us and we can start moving onwards and upwards! GLA

Been a long-term holder of these and not made much! Struggle to see why they trade at close to 30x earnings. Over the last 5 years we've seen top line growth of 2.39% p/annum and bottom line growth of 0.57% p/annum not exactly the type of growth you'd expect to see from a company trading at such a high multiple. Have continued to hold them as a 'crisis hedge' but since the brexit vote in 2016, any rumblings of a catastrophe e.g. nuclear threats, geopolitical tensions in many regions/countries etc. and Gold has NOT moved higher. In fact nothing seems to push the gold price higher anymore, even significant weakening in the USD and no movement in gold. Cannot make sense of it whatsoever, been long Gold forever and optimistic all the way through this painful bear market but patience is wearing thin and it seems like nothing can be a catalyst for gold prices to move higher anymore. It's not even a 'flight to safety trade as it once was. So depressing

Fantastic update. The only thing I can think of to explain the share price is the continued reference to royal Sheba project which will require significant capex up front, and as i have mentioned before this probably points to a share placing. Without that I think we would be flying, and really we should be with those numbers which were nothing short of outstanding. For a miner this size to be producing at an all in cash cost of $650-700 p/oz is remarkable and this share is so undervalued it's almost unbelievable. I'm almost hoping the feasibility study on Sheba turns up poor results so they can forget it, they don't need it IMO. GLA

Shouldn't the SP be rising in anticipation of production commencing at elikhulu? Perhaps there have been some issues which will result in a delay. Not heard anything from management in a long time now. Along with the huge spread this is very worrying

Technical are of concern with the 50 day moving average closing below the 200 day yesterday. Need a strong close above 7p today if not I fear we are heading lower.

Price has been falling slowly for a week or two on extremely low volume. Huge spread. No official word from the company for a long time now despite everything going on. I wouldn't be surprised to see some worse than expected news on the severance package for the miners, miners union going crazy. Checked to see what I bought these at and i started buying at 13p fml guess I'm stuck with these for a while! Just hope they can weather the storm!

ZAR, USD, inflation, gold price....we're clutching at straws here. This stock is so painful to watch. No matter what happens with gold etc it's still going nowhere. Hopefully will be a different story this time next year. GLA

Plenty director selling in recent months though...

Downright disastrous for us. Explains a lot about SP

Yes agreed cost of redundancies higher than expected. You're probably being a bit too optimistic at production but even if u halved that at an average gold price of $1200, it would still make this grossly undervalued. Interestingly Numis reiterated their Buy rating on the stock with a 16p target price.

Must have their tails between their legs as I've seen the short interest fall from >7.5% down to 5.52% now. I can't deny that I'm very happy to see that! GLA

£7m in cash minus the £5.6m in debt due in one year or less means that they will likely raise capital via equity markets if they want to develop Sheba. They can't fund this from existing operations alone I don't think. I understand your optimism, I am in deep so I want to be positive too but also have to be realistic. There's a reason why we're lingering at this low SP. No doubt these can fly though once the issues are resolved

Not to mention the potential raising of further equity capital by way of a placing or rights issue to fund royal Sheba project, this would be dilutive to existing shareholders.

Definitely worth a punt at this price I think. They have a strong balance sheet and well-positioned now for the future. Safeglaze has been taking their staff and then their customers, very unethical and underhand practices which should be investigated however this is a short term issue IMO, in the long-run the cream should rise to the top. I am a bit vexed to see that the CEO compensation has increased more than 20% in the past year when EPS has fallen more than 20% so this is worth keeping an eye on going forward. With slowing demand in the market and increased competition a further 10% fall in earnings in 2018 can be expected so with that in mind, I think the shares having fallen more than 50% in no time at all now represent tremendous value unless you think the company is going bust, which I don't. Weak Buy given it's an AIM stock but I think at this price I won't be looking back with regret in 3-5 years. GLA

Ragnar, I think that the company is in good hands, the management team is of a high calibre and very well qualified and experienced so I believe they can turn things around. I also believe a capital raising is inevitable especially with the recent update on the royal Sheba project - who knows what initial capex will be required to get this going? It certainly can't be funded from existing cash of c£7M minus the c£5.6m of debt due within the next 12 months. It is also unlikely IMO that they will get into more debt as this would increase Net Debt/EBITDA above their max target of 2.5 times. So that leaves equity capital as their only option if they want to retrieve the estimated 240k oz from Royal Sheba, which means dilution for us as existing shareholders. So that really explains why we're trading at such low multiples, it really isn't too good to be true, sadly. On to royal Sheba, the issue of new shares has to be value creating for us shareholders so looking at the numbers they estimate based on "all available data" from old and new studies, 3d scans, geological surveys, sampling etc. that they could extract c240k oz at a "lower cost" than previously anticipated, how much that means in all-in cash cost p/oz we don't know yet...but let's assume we can operate at a net margin of c12.5% that would be a net return of c£30M which is about 1.35p EPS from Royal Sheba. So whenever the placing comes we'll need to see how dilutive it is going to be for us. Elikhulu as Mulder has mentioned could well be a game changer and I have my fingers crossed, just hoping there's not too many more shares to add to the 2.23BN already in issue. GLA

Can't say low 140s is definitely the bottom but I can say that they are worth more and nobody is going to regret buying at this price. Sell-off way overdone, growth underestimated, decline in advertising outlook more than priced in, and plenty of potential for upside surprise with this year's world cup. Not to mention potential takeover (not imminent) but some way down the line. Confident of a good times ahead. GLA