The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
The FED announces it'll aim to raise rates in May 2022 with another two planned, but by then they'll be another variant as an excuse to 'postpone' that. The BTC (and Alt) fundamentals only grow stronger by the day, the USD is less **** than all other FIAT but is proliferated toilet paper none the less to the tune of BILLIONS per month, the US debt ceiling was raised by another $2.5 Trillion, inflation is obviously rampant yet we apparently have enough Sellers suddenly realising that their exit is $49k (or just below) on a daily basis when we've basically been stuck here the last two weeks, even after we have clarity on FED policy over the coming months. LMFAO. It appears as though we're being kept below $50k with a little bit of margin until the cat cannot be kept in the bag. HODL as they are relying on Retail getting bored and bailing.
I'm glad someone else has noticed this. Others seem to think price manipulation is conspiracy theory. More people need to HODL. Also consider the SEC has no problem approving BTC Futures ETF's but still no spot ETF. Like the ongoing games being played they can't maintain that position forever, especially with the likes of Grayscale and Fidelity pushing hard.
Going by some of the comments here there are actually people that think Whales buy from the spot market and not OTC. These same people also probably think that these same Whales don't have full visibility on the leveraged longs (and shorts) and dumping say, I dunno, 1500 BTC in mere minutes won't cause a cascade of sells and hence drive the price down shaking more people out of the market. No, no, this like ALL markets is pure supply and demand. Just like gold and silver. Silly conspiracy theorists, they think far too much.
This thing wants to go. We just need Powell to announce a big fat nothing burger and off we should fly. As usual we get pushed back down again but not so easy this time........a real dog fight going on right now but the Sellers will surely run out of ammo soon. People are getting wise to these quick pumps and dumps. The HODLERs are not selling anywhere near these prices.
Just in case anyone had forgotten; there will only ever be 21M BTC. Circa 4M lost or out of circulation forever. 90% already mined. This Asset underwrites an entirely new digitised ecosystem that is still in it's infancy but is growing widely in acceptance. Right now we're only just over half the 2017 ATH (~$20k) that was driven purely by Retail yet the ecosystem has grown massively since then. The mind boggles at how undervalued we are. Clearly this is a mixture of Whale games to keep driving out the paper hands (and maybe extend the cycle) and some profit taking for US year end. I expect strong appetite to resume early 2022. Right now I'm getting itchy fingers for topping up my Alt positions. Some showing relative strength today.
Exactly, it's the only tool they have. All this talk of tapering and rate rises is just that, talk, probably to try and slow inflation short term. If they try a paltry rates rise the market will have a huge tantrum and they'll need to walk it back straight away. 'Fortunately' they now have omicron as an excuse to no longer do so, or to hold off (indefinitely). Many people are expecting a market crash and are trying to time the market. As such it'll probably be the complete opposite and a melt up and some sort of final global asset grab. Either way the economy is screwed so you might as well be invested because cash is trash. They know that full well and are plotting an orderly-ish switch to central bank digital currencies and debt relief for the select few. No one will trust anyone which is why we need BTC.
But they acknowledge they are here to stay and quote: ""We really need to roll our sleeves up and get on with it, so that by the time this becomes a much bigger issue, we've actually got the regulatory framework to contain the risks." i.e. we know this market is going to grow to such a size that it will have a profound effect on the entire financial system......BULLISH.
Most people are in favour of clear but reasonable regulation. The SEC needs to get their finger out a approve a spot ETF in the US. Approving Futures just encourages speculation, not investment.
Holding pattern ongoing. Just as the price starts to pick up to where Traders and maybe some Retail have an entry point we get knocked back down to the fine line. Meanwhile the paper hands keep folding and the Whales keep accumulating. It's a process of attrition that will eventually come to an end. Unlike May we do not have BTC moving into Exchanges for mass sell-off (quite the opposite) so best to stay calm and wait for this current process to play out. I'm certainly not going to try and time the market because history tells us when BTC moves it really moves. Even more so for the Alts. Then the impulsive money FOMO's in and off we go, by which time the rest of us are starting to take profits. Extended cycle, top in March 2022 with subsequent correction less brutal than previous, all of which predicated on Main Markets not imploding. A calm December wouldn't actually be a bad thing.
Feels like we're still in this holding pattern with the occasional little vomit to keep chasing the paper hands out. There a plenty metrics showing we're still in the bull run and nowhere near top, but the one I like best is BTC on exchange and the trend continues down, i.e. being moved off exchange into cold storage / custodial wallets. The recent dump did not correlate with BTC being moved onto Exchanges in any significant way unlike earlier in the year.
Also keep an eye on ETH. Largely unloved but it's the undisputed no2 and more is being burned by the day. Total value locked (TVL) exceeds all the other L1's by a country mile. Amazon now tinkering round the edges with NFT's (on WAX I believe?). A big announcement from them (accepting Crypto payments etc) would be huge. Frankly all the fundamentals look fantastic. ARB just needs BTC to make it's move and the main markets not to **** themselves anytime soon.
All this negative sentiment only makes me more bullish. We've only just come out of Extreme Fear on the fear/greed index and snuck into 'Fear'. We might grind a bit lower yet but history tells us this is the time to load up if you can otherwise HODL. It was all the talk of $98k last month and $150k this month that made me uneasy. Ripe pickings for sucking the leverage in and wiping it out. That was one hell of a wipe out. Not sure where the Shorts are sitting now but when the Whales go after them it could be a hell of a ride, especially when the FOMO sets in. Right now Retail are too busy worrying if they are going to be granted Xmas from our illustrious Masters and to be told if Omicon is something to worry about. What drama!
Look at BTC dominance. Remains around the 40% mark. BTC continues to net flow off exchanges. That last dip was totally manufactured by the Whales to flush out the leveraged longs hard. There is no panic. Folk are chomping to get into the Metaverse and NFT space and as such many Alts still have huge support with more capital waiting to flow in. L1 protocols will resurge (I bought into AVAX yesterday having missed the original surge - now 20% up) but watch out for the resurgence of DeFi. Its been overlooked for months and I see AAVE and FTM as solid plays. Many L1's expose you to DeFi anyway.
Also shout out to ArgoBull and Money Never Sleeps.....based on their chat I've become aware of FLAME and that could be a major multibagger.
Also bought the ARB dip yesterday.
Bitcoin is digital property that provides the foundation for the nascent but burgeoning Crypto space. These can be used as currencies, i.e. to transact, but in my view BTC will become to valuable for that. The Alt Coins (or Alts as they are called; Ethereum, Cardano, Solana etc) and really new digital Platforms for doing all manner of things. Smart Contracts and DeFi will change the financial world as we know, in fact already are. Currency is really a misnomer. I see these as digital investments in an increasingly digitised world. Not having exposure is frankly stupid.
21M BTC is broken down into 8 decimal places where one unit is a SAT. Kind of like pounds and pence but different multiples. So there are plenty BTC to go round. The real power comes from it being truly decentralised and hence trustless, and what I now believe is the most powerful computing network in the World. This is an innovation on a breathtaking scale which is why many of the big Tech Entrepreneurs and increasing Institutions are now on board.
As for FIAT currencies they are basically the root of all that is wrong in the World. The ability to just generate more of the thing that many people measure their labour and hence savings in is open to abuse. Inflation is yet another tax.
Governments could not fund War and never ending boondoggles if the money needed to finance them was actually of real value, and investments would be made far more prudently and speculation would fall off a cliff. Politicians would be far more answerable to the taxpayer which in itself would enhance the democratic process. So like I say to everyone, Gold and Bitcoin have a important place in a well diversified portfolio but as well all know POG and POS will continue to be manipulated until it becomes impossible to do so. That could be 2yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs away. My Crypto portfolio has VASTLY outperformed my Gold & Silver and will likely continue to do so.
I'll be quite happy once the PlanB prediction is invalidated as it removes precise expectations which in itself can be used as a form of manipulation (not PlanB but others knowing how much traction it got - highly leveraged trading has been a curse). Just HODL. The cycle is either being deliberately extended to prevent a huge dump (arguably positive) but I honestly can't see how a big spike can be avoided and it would probably last several days if not a couple weeks. I'll take some profits at that point but my plan is to remain invested in this space. Frankly I think ARB is holding up rather well through all this chop.
Firstly, does anyone actually give a toss about Mt Gox? It's was a poorly run exchange back when Crypto was like the Wild West. Anyone with sense should have moved their BTC into a wallet. There were some, even back then.
Secondly we need to remain calm. We are at $57.5k, not $29k. There have been a few times BTC looked to break out but got whacked down again. Possibly due to options expiry tomorrow. Just remember these same toss pots that are unloading to suppress need to buy back at some point to play that card again. Just HODL. What are we down for the week? 12%? Comparing that to previous bull runs it's nothing. Sit tight, don't check your portfolio every 5mins and enjoy the ride. I still think a major supply squeeze is coming right about the same time many Retail investors have given up. The fundamentals remain very bullish. I could pick so many headlines but here is one example of many, in the last 24hrs: "FIDELITY APPROVED TO BECOME CANADA’S FIRST INSTITUTIONAL BITCOIN CUSTODIAN".
This is starting to move like BTC! Between now and year end (I'd say until March 2022) could see explosive moves in Crypto. This could result in crypto related stocks behaving like junior precious metal miners on steroids! Everyone will want a piece but there are not enough outlets to soak up that liquidity in an orderly fashion.
Exactly. The Whales will be loading up in the background while the lemmings panic. So Evergrande was rolled out again to help precipitate the first big drop (lies about a debt payment being missed) a few days back, then we have the BOE making frankly stupid and ill-informed statements about Crypto (to scare the stupid and ill-informed) and then drum roll........more China FUD! Some ****** about state owned enterprises (is that not them all?) not being allowed to deal with Crypto. Yawn.
I thought they'd milked the China cow to death but obviously a few more oz's to squeeze out. The play book has been the same since they decided "Crypto is a scam" doesn't work anymore. The FIAT system is imploding and it's brave person that keeps most of their wealth in a bank. Unfortunately the vast majority of Proles don't know what a bank "bail in" is but they might soon enough. Nor do they probably realise they've been getting 0.1% interest for the last 5yrs which when adjusted for inflation is rapid wealth destruction. Crypto, precious metals and some choice stocks are in my view the place to be.
Until people stop leverage trading BTC will be stuck range bound. Same game being played out time and time again; leverage gets high, the Whales dump and wreck the greedy b*stards. Frankly I'm in favour of this until these twats learn their lesson. Then once everyone is bored / almost given up we'll see the parabolic moves many are anticipating. BTC continues to leave exchanges and Institutions keep steadily accumulating, especially after these leverage dumps / paper hands folding. As always the patient will be rewarded. I also think this is being done to extend the cycle and reduce the magnitude of the explosives moves so that the ultimate correction is relatively mild. Diamond hands desired to form the foundation of a new ecosystem. The speculators can all f*ck off and buy trash like DOGE and SHIB.
I'm also expecting a decent pull back.....around March 2022. Until then we melt faces with a few ups and downs along the way. Just wait until the Alts run. ETH is being burned at an incredible rate, ETH 2.0 comes closer each day and it's the undisputed #2. You're going to see 5x, 10x in some of the smaller Alts. I was here during the 2017 run and it was fearsome. This time we have Institutions (most will need some exposure or look like fools) and retail FOMO hasn't even started yet.