Member Info for TruthSearcher

@Gyr1 - Spot on as always - not - that wasn't me - you just could not make up the inaccurate posts on this board.

@Amjama - thanks for your good wishes and your 60p forecast in a few weeks which you made on 4th April, since when the ESL share price has declined by 16%.

OK, so there are three views on ESL, those like Mark who have sound reason for investing, a good knowledge of the sector and a belief that the debt and stressed balance sheet will be sorted without a massive ESL shareholder dilution. Then there are those who just think the share price will treble, quadruple and more because they want it to and think that insults and shouting will help achieve that goal. Then there is people like myself and TF who believe that DBAY may use their control of the assets, debt and the holding company to drive an outcome that will be unfavourable for ESL shareholders.

It appears that 6 weeks from now we will know the answer to who was right and who was wrong. I am much more certain than TF that the ESL shareholders capital will be at severe risk with what DBAY plan to do, based upon knowledge about how they have operated in the past, AT reducing his holding when he had no need to and knowing some of the people involved. I have made my points clear and everyone has to make their own mind up about how much risk they want to take with their capital. I shall be back at the end of May/when developments occur to see whether you are all laughing hysterically at my posts warning of risk while counting your multiple bag profits or in a state of shock about what has happened to your investment. So far all my predictions about ESL over the last 7 weeks, unlike all the other massive ramping predictions, have been spot on.

@lemonade - So on 3rd March at 08:19 when the ESL share price was 13.75p you posted and I quote "mug punters that weren't sure what they are doing here have now gone,,,awesome day ahead, with TR1's,, + I'm expected a new holding rns....ESL can't be ignored at less than scrap value..."

But it appears despite your conviction back then at 13.75p you took my advice and sold out as you said today you only bought back in at 8.13p last week ?!

You simply couldn't make it up !

@lemonade - LMAO - If i had listened to you, Ethio and Icartz and held instead of selling I would have lost 40% of my capital invested in ESL since February and wouldn't have made the gains I have made elsewhere - you just couldn't make it up !!

No Ethio I have not opened a short again and no I did not bash it, as you will see from the re-posts this weekend I said on 1st March it would trade in the range of 5-15p whereas you and Icartz said it would head north of 30p - so who is going to listen to you when all your forecasts and predictions have been completely untrue ? I even pointed out this weekend that some made 20% last week and it was still a stock that could be traded until the May news is released, but I fear that long term the outlook is not rosy, due to what DBAY will do. So my humble suggestion would be get your facts right and improve your typing/spelling, analysis and forecasting skills.

By the way, if you had sold on 1st March at 9.5p you would have 14.7% more capital than you do today - who does that make a fool ? I sold out at 14p in February as I reckoned that was more or less at the top end of where it would go over next few months, as per my forecast of 5-15p.

Barring a very bad or very good RNS, neither of which I expect tomorrow, I expect there will be a slight re-trace in the markets tomorrow after the strong rises last week and ESL will probably end up between 1 and 4% down by 16:30

@lccartz - you said 7 weeks ago ESL would go "up to 30p short term" - what's your definition of short term lol ?

@zebbo - I am not trying or telling anyone to sell - but I am pointing out that there are dangers in long term holding but there are short term gains in trading - and indeed I think many have traded this profitably over the last 7 weeks and good on them. However now we are getting close to annual results and trading update in May, together with an update on ESL structure. Last week you could have made 20% over a couple of days. So as ever, risk and reward.

@Zebbo - correct, and you have to ask why he sold when he sold out from STOB in January and released £20m of cash - so he didn't need a few million from selling here.

As Icartz said, make your own mind up, but as a reminder, here was the view that Icartz and I took 7 weeks ago. As you can see, his forecasting has not been very accurate.

On 1st March TS posted:

"Due to the free float and the volume being traded, there is options to trade this stock as I think it will range between 5p and 15p over the next few weeks and months. I think the majority of the time it will be in the 7p to 12p range, so if this is your target and your timing is right then it is worth consideration. If you think with the debt and trading position the true value is 30p to £1, then you are going to have to prove that Andrew Tinkler is financially illiterate and a poor businessman."

On 2nd March Icartz posted:

"@sam do some research on the previous days posts on this and you will see 20p is cheap and no
Doubt head back to 30p plus short term and long term holder up from there!
Truthsearcher is negative he was telling us the other day this won’t progressnnorth of 10p and prob will tell us will retrace to 7p - we are only back trading few days since suspension and wouldn’t be surprised to see this tick nicely daily and weekly up and up and up it’s not your usual
Aim let’s make a few speculative few quid this isn’t a mining, gold or type company this is a solid established massive operational U.K. business with financial facts behind it to me it’s a no brainier stay long hold long and wait patience pays in this one"

@Flakey - the strong always survive and do well in recessions, this is obviously a lot more than a recession but I agree with your view. The problem with ESL is the debt - if you look at Wincanton they are debt free and their market cap is modest in relation to profitability, but then they have more exposure to maritime and retail, so that is their weakness.

@haddy68 - I'm sorry but there is no logic in DBAY buying 2.3% more of the shares of ESL unless they were bidding for all of ESL in which case they would just make a bid rather than trying to buy another 2.3%. Therefore I don't believe DBAY are buying up the shares that are being sold currently. As for a stonking update, well if people think that the lower cost of fuel will be retained by ESL, that a 4 week peak on Tesco will make up for the down volumes in the other parts of the business and that the other parts will somehow overnight become magically profitable, then you will I think be disppaointed when the trading update comes.

@haddy68 - I'm sorry but there is no logic in DBAY buying 2.3% more of the shares of ESL unless they were bidding for all of ESL in which case they would just make a bid rather than trying to buy another 2.3%. Therefore I don't believe DBAY are not buying up the shares that are being sold currently. As for a stonking update, well if people think that the lower cost of fuel will be retained by ESL, that a 4 week peak on Tesco will make up for the down volumes in the other parts of the business and that the other parts will somehow overnight become magically profitable, then you will

To be fair Mark, you thought it might happen, which is a bit different to other saying it would definitely happen - love the Dad's Army line from Oldapache, made me proper smile, which is something we all need at the minute, so thank you for that !

OK - Where are you ? All those this morning saying it would pop and close between 12 and 14p - come out and do the walk of shame for spouting unfounded and inaccurate ramping - you know who you are lol

@Mark - I totally agree that a foreign haulier is more likely - there is no chance in my book of Wincanton buying or DBAY wanting to pay for the other 73% of ESL shares they don't have. But I can't see a foreign bid given the wider economic issues and the problems that ESL has.

@sonicboomboy - Actually I really don't think DBAY will make a bid - I think there will be complicated corporate action that sees a debt for equity swap which will affect ESL shareholders but provide a great outcome for DBAY. Those guys are clever but brutal and not generous to others.

@Bostonboy - I know this is complicated for you, but just because there are two similar user names does not mean they are the same. And If you find a post from me from last week saying 5p, I will give you a gold star, because no such post exists lol

Hi Mark, all my forecasts have been spot on - except for my original buy pre-suspension lol - yes there have been big swings here but not today to 12-14p - I could be wrong but will check back in at 16:30

If DBAY bought another £960k worth of shares over and above their 27% they would be over the 30% threshold and have to make a bid - I can see no logic for them to make a bid or put themselves in that situation - they could have done that already when in suspension when they were buying at 6p, but chose not to. For those saying 12-14p by the end of the day, I hope you realise how stupid that makes you look.

@ShinFalls - DBAY's interests are not aligned with shareholders in ESL - If they had wanted to be aligned they would have made a bid to buy all of ESL - instead they took the 51% of the holding company by providing the PIK at 18% and used their shareholding in ESL to get the deal voted through. The Banks are not aligned with ESL shareholder interests either, which is why they own the debt and not shares. DBAY are clever and greedy but not generous to others other than themselves, hence why they didn't buy out ESL. I have had previous dealings with them so hence why I understand more than most how they operate.