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Looks like the funding is still proving difficult to close article from africa intelligence below:
I believe the vitol exclusivity period is until the end of May, so clearly there seems to be sticking points if they are still unable to agree with vitol, vitol as ever can provide funding but i am sure they have their limit as to concessions they are willing to offer no oil trader would sign a bad deal for them so not sure whether Gunvor or Trafigura would offer anything different to what vitol is offering
GOC changes advisers in quest to buy out Carlyle assets
The state-owned Gabon Oil Co recently reviewed its strategy to give itself a better chance of financing the pre-emption of the US investment firm's assets.
Gabon Oil Co (GOC) has changed its advisers as it searches for funds to acquire Carlyle's oil assets in the country, which are operated by Assala Energy, The Paris branch of US law firm Norton Rose Fulbright is now handling the legal side of the highly sensitive matter.
Norton Rose in the past regularly represented the son of former president Ali Bongo, Noureddin Bongo, who has been in prison since a coup last August led by General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema (AI, 19/01/23). Until April, GOC worked mainly with the Paris offshoot of the US law firm Baker McKenzie.
But on the banking aspects of the Carlyle-Assala takeover, GOC continues to use the advisory bank Africa Bright, one of whose new executives is Emmanuel Leroueil, who worked as an economic and financial adviser to the Gabonese president's office from 2019 till last October.
Leroueil was a director of GOC until last October. The Franco-Rwandan, a graduate of Sciences-Po in Paris, managed negotiations with oil operators in Gabon from 2022 until last year's coup. Prior to the coup, he had taken on increasing responsibility at the presidential palace in Libreville (AI, 07/12/22).
Exclusivity agreement
Gabon's junta leader said in November that he wanted to nationalise the assets of Carlyle, which produce 45,000 barrels a day, rendering null and void a sales agreement signed six months earlier with Maurel & Prom of the Pertamina group.
GOC signed an exclusivity agreement earlier this year with Vitol to negotiate the terms of raising funds in exchange for marketing the crude generated by these licences, which will remain in Shell's hands until 2017 (AI, 09/04/24). But the exclusivity period will come to an end in a few weeks' time and other commodity traders, such as Gunvor and Trafigura, are keeping a close eye on the deal.
GOC managing director Marcellin Simba Ngabi is under pressure to find the billion dollars needed for the state's pre-emption. If the compromise with Vitol fails and Gunvor or Trafigura cannot raise the money, there will be few other options.
Looks Like Deby has been officially announced as winner in Chad, not that it will have an effect on Savannah's case but will be interesting to see what direction he takes the energy sector now that he has secured and consolidated his position.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz96ezdljl9o
Interesting stance by the Nigerian regulator, they are willing to expediate oil major divestment plans if they commit to paying clean up costs
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/oil-majors-offered-faster-nigerian-exit-if-they-pay-cleanup-2024-05-03/
The South Sudan National oil company is in serious need of cash by the looks of it as it has currently implemented 50% salary cuts leading to some protests
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1787148306507862178
https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1787134822747361341
https://t.co/SHLFwcI7QN
Clearly the South Sudan National oil company as an entity struggles with operational stability, and a very good example of why they are not ready to takeover the Petronas assests.
A strong market signal needs to be given by the government to increase investments and materially increase production from fields
Zengas - One thing I would like to add is if they are unable to secure another acquisition, and are unable to re-finance the accugas debt. Than my personal choice would be any cash which is considered spare and by spare I mean cash not needed for Accugas and Niger work programmes should be used to pay down the accugas debt as aggressively as possible or share buybacks. Personally not a huge fan of dividends at our current valuation and feel that paying down the accugas debt above the usual payments or share buybacks will be more pleasing to shareholders in terms of growth.
Zengas - Totally agree I think the company now has to deliver substantial / material news flow considering we will be suspended for over 18 months possibly even longer.
To put it into context Afentra was thereabout 25/26p in December 2022 now near 50p and Seplat our Nigerian peer was around 85p and now close to 160p. So these 2 companies are a classic example of seeing close to a 100% share price growth over the same period.
In similar context if we are to have parity growth over the same period than we deserve a minimum price growth up to 50p, and if we are to be fully diluted 1.4 billion shares that would equate to a market cap of circa £700m, how the company is able to deliver this growth will be interesting, now whether they can materially increase accugas output well beyond 200 mmscfd, start aggressive Niger exploration and production or deliver through another acquisition, but that's minimum that needs to occur
Looks like Deal approvals in Nigeria are gathering pace -
Nigeria
ENI sale of NAOC to Oando imminent
After concluding a months-long assessment, the Nigerian upstream regulator is expected to authorise the transaction in the coming days. The acquisition means the company led by President Tinubu's nephew will nearly double its oil reserves. [...]
https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2024/04/29/eni-sale-of-naoc-to-oando-imminent,110220658-art
If the ENI to Oando deal is approved than the Seplat / Exxon Deal and also the Shell / Renaissance could also be imminent. Perhaps there is never a better time than to strike another deal in Nigeria, whilst the government could be about to start an approvals spree.
The company has to do all in it's power to get another Nigerian deal over the line seems like the investment environment there is relatively more friendly albeit still drawn out.
The charts I am referring to is on the CPR document released in March 2024
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/03/Nigeria-Competent-Persons-Report-18-March-2024.pdf
I was just looking at 2 interesting charts to see if there is anything that catches my eye and 2 charts particularly caught my eye, please see below:
1) Figure 4-2 Uquo Field production forecast profiles page 41 shows our production from roughly mid 2024 should be 190 MMScfd = 33,676 BOEPD.
2) Figure 4-4 Stubb Creek production forecast profiles page 43 shows our production being 5,000 BOPD from Stubb Creek
If those forecast are as accurate considering that were released in the CPR as latest at March 2024, than I expect us to between 35,000 - 40,000 Boepd by close of this year, unless i have misinterpreted what the chart is trying to tell. That doesn't factor in any production from Niger.
In that context our Accugas Contracts:
Long-term GSAs in place with the Calabar power plant (131 MMscf/d) and Lafarge cement plant (24.2 MMscf/d)
The GSAs have a combined 155.2 MMscf/d Daily Contract Quantity (DCQ) with an 80% Take-or-Pay provision
Additional interruptible GSAs are in place with:
Central Horizon Gas Company (CHGC), an Axxela subsidiary, for up to 10 MMscf/d
Notore Chemical Industries for up to 10 MMscf/d
Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) for up to 3 MMscf/d
Shell Nigeria Gas Limited (SNG) for up to 3 MMscf/d
Nice to see ex Nigeria president driving investors to Akwa Ibom state as promoting gas development
https://leadership.ng/why-i-endorsed-akwa-ibom-for-huge-gas-investment-jonathan/
Porsche - I have seen this article a personally I don’t believe any entity will loan 2-3 x GDP it’s another silly caltech style news and not worth the paper it’s written on. A distant relative of the royal family is laughable.
It’s like saying I am related to the royal family and got them on speed dial
Ground breaking ceremony for plant in akwa ibom in local ibeno area right in the midst of accugas pipeline, attended by Nigeria gas minister.
https://independent.ng/windek-energy-breaks-ground-for-20000-mt-liquified-gas-depot-in-aibom/
Looks like Akwa Ibom government in south east Nigeria are building a LNG plant, I am sure this will unlock further opportunities for our accugas asset.
https://thestreetjournal.org/governor-umo-eno-receives-former-president-jonathan-over-planned-lng-plant-to-be-built-in-akwa-ibom/
Https://theenergyrepublic.com/nigeria-launches-new-fiscal-incentives-to-revitalise-oil-gas-sector/
Looks like first oil is now flowing to Benin port ready for first shipment
https://www.africanews.com/2024/04/24/niger-benin-pipeline-first-drops-of-oil-arrive-at-seme-krake/
Looks like things could be moving quick now in Niger, with the oil minister having a meeting with CNPC and Savannah at the orders of the transitional leader. Seems like Niger are taking an aggressive approach and trying to push operators and partners to come together and be aggressive with their programmes by giving certain directives.
On April 20, 2024, the Minister of Oil of Niger, Mahamane Moustapha Barké Bako, organized a crucial meeting with officials of oil companies and their subcontractors. The main objective of this meeting was to transmit specific directives issued by Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tiani, President of the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland and Head of State. These directives target the strengthening of oil and gas resource exploitation practices with the aim of consolidating the national economy.
Three key points were highlighted: optimization of contracts, improvement of recruitment strategies, and more rigorous management, marking an important step towards more efficient and responsible management of Niger's natural resources.
This initiative illustrates the government's commitment to maximising the economic benefits of its natural resources while ensuring sustainable and equitable management.
Discussion between the Minister of Oil
And the operators of the National Oil Company, China, Savannah and CEPEX
The Minister of Oil, Mr. Barka Bako Mahamane Mustapha, met Saturday in his office with officials of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Savannah and CEPEX, major oil companies in Niger.
The purpose of the meeting was to inform these companies of the instructions issued by the Chairman of the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland, Head of State, Brigadier General Abderrahmane Tayani, within the framework of the arrangements for oil exploitation in Niger.
The meeting focused on three main points: operating contracts, hiring employees, and managing oil resources in Niger.
On the issue of contracts, Minister Barque noted that the national oil company CNPC and WAPCO had always been responsible for hiring their subcontractors, and if they failed to do so, they would bear the consequences. The Minister has already indicated that he will contact the Chamber of Commerce to create a database of companies that will be pre-qualified to provide upstream and downstream services, so as to officially send it to all operators.
Regarding employment, the Minister of Oil indicated that a joint mission from the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Civil Service had already investigated the matter at the level of Suraz Company and its subcontractors, then WAPCO Company and its subcontractors, and finally the China National Petroleum Company and its subcontractors. The final report was submitted on April 20 to the office of the Minister of Oil, who will transmit it to the President of the State, who issued his instructions in this regard
https://x.com/nigerar/status/1
Good to see Akwa Ibom Gas development being forefront of mind, with our CPF completion our ability to harness additional gas through our pipeline both through feedstock of new gas and delivery of gas to new customers will transform accugas asset to another level..
https://guardian.ng/business-services/fg-akwa-ibom-unite-to-unlock-economic-potential-of-gas-deposits/
This article is quite clear not all exports has stopped but they are at lows compared to recent highs. 6-8 weeks to get back to recent levels
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2558621-south-sudan-eyes-dar-blend-export-restart-in-6-8-weeks