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In my opinion Capita has a low financial institution debt for a 2.7 billion revenue company-please dont mistake lease liabilities for example -which makes up £350m of there rolling 12 month liability as pure bank debt. I dont think it is unless Ive misread. I understand that the rents etc are paid out as an operational cost. The actual debt is circa £230m . If I have this wrong I'm sorry
It's quite simple -they have to get their property costs and employee costs on a sustaainable footing . Then if we can win some more work it'll be ok
@ jg-im going to be quite approximate here. if revenue is to remain broadly the same and the 60m is to be felt from q1 that means 45m straight to the bottom line. 100m further savings by the middle of next year . lets conservatively say 70m for growth and 30m to the bottom line and attribute 15m this year.
that means profit should (back of a *** packet ) be 60m up on last year at least. theyve been saying 70-90 free cash outflow which is to be serviced partly from the ferra sale partly through debt so expect to see a higher debt figure next year. thats before you add any wins etc. by the end of 2025 , figures should be improving more materially because no pension contribution and i think we can expect to see further reductions so i think march 2026 we will be reporting mid single digit profit margins. lots of variables in there on the upside and down side obviously but that's my sort of guesstimate. what do others think? off the back of that and if i'm right we can expect a small dividend possibly late 2025 /2026
@Kipper
PS-it was IR but not Helen
As promised here is the response I've just received:-
We do understand the frustration and disappointment to the share price movement in the last week.
Regarding solvency, as we flagged in the results announcement, we had £282m of available liquidity at year end, we then received £51m of net proceeds from the Fera disposal in January 2024, these two combined more than covers the forecast free cash outflow in 2024.
Following the roadshow, we received positive feedback to Adolfo’s initial thoughts about the business and where improvements can be made. Looking at the trading flows, it appears that most of the trading volumes have been through retail brokers and not institutional flows (we have not received any TR1 notifications). We had good engagement during our recent roadshow but it may be that some non-holders want to hear more detail in June than commit now. There can of course be many factors impacting when an institution buys and sells shares.
@Anyoneinterested- IR have suggested that there are no banking covenants relating to sp. It has also been pointed out that the report shows that capita is compliant with its debt covenants as at 31 dec 2023 .
As promised here is the response I've just received:-
We do understand the frustration and disappointment to the share price movement in the last week.
Regarding solvency, as we flagged in the results announcement, we had £282m of available liquidity at year end, we then received £51m of net proceeds from the Fera disposal in January 2024, these two combined more than covers the forecast free cash outflow in 2024.
Following the roadshow, we received positive feedback to Adolfo’s initial thoughts about the business and where improvements can be made. Looking at the trading flows, it appears that most of the trading volumes have been through retail brokers and not institutional flows (we have not received any TR1 notifications). We had good engagement during our recent roadshow but it may be that some non-holders want to hear more detail in June than commit now. There can of course be many factors impacting when an institution buys and sells shares.
@Gotout -that's true but no bank calls in a loan like this -not without serious discussion
Chaps I'm going to tell you....I'm really worried now. No ifs or buts -the RNS and Adolfo's presentation and video will be just as much to blame if this goes under from this point. Im staying in because I have too and not because I want too
@Capitaliser -I must respectfully disagree. If the SP is rock bottom what do you think is going to happen when people are deciding whether to take Capita on as a service provider.
AH has to stabilise this and fast.
I'm wondering whether the scale of the cuts proposed was the shock factor rather than the expected results. Its given the impression we are in the last chance saloon
@GOCPI-I get that but quite honestly they were all to ready to push the turnaround/return to growth narrative
AH would have been a fool to put 50K in if this was going into administration to be honest so on the face of it this seems unlikely but some II must be bailing . This kind of drop is not possible with just PIs. Is it?