Member Info for TRBob

Thank you for sharing @Brydo

What a great report, nice to see all of that footage. I have tried to recommend your post, but get a javascript error, strange.

That's a decent use for AI, I hated doing proofs when I started BSc Mathematics, unsurprisingly I switched subjects.

The more that I use AI and learn about it, the more I see it's limitations, it is an incredible tool though that can do incredible things, but it is still just a tool.

Ok potential dilution of 7.87%, I can live with that if the SP doubles or triples.

I don't see a downside to this, gives them incentive and more skin in the game, as you say, they profit and we profit.

Doesn't seem to have bothered most people, still plenty of decent sizes buys.

Crikey it's off like a rocket, anyone know why?

Lifelong space fan here, bought in at the IPO, it rocketed up, so bought some more at the peak, it didn't manage escape velocity and gravity won out, my 111p average was depressing for a long time after the crash back to Earth and couldn't really justify to myself buying more in any quantity compared to my initial investment, that would make a difference.

Then things started to turn, when it got to 148p I put a Stop Loss at 135p, and the price did actually drop back below this for a little while and I am so glad that it didn't activate as now I'm almost 100% up.

@MrOnions add Asteroid mining to the list, if we can get some of that action eventually then this will go SMT as @Montecristo2 suggested in another thread

🤣🤣🤣

Thanks Strangey, I should have caveated that I don't take AI as gospel, I think I've posted my scepticism previously relating to some accountancy and legal 'advice' that was clearly incorrect.

However I find it useful for quickly summarising data and also modelling scenarios as Mr. T has also done, and then it is up to the individual to decide what is useful.

I place much higher value on the thoughts and opinions of the real people (LTHs of course) on this board compared to AI.

Thank you Altolusso for sharing.

5. Potential Operational Relief (Bay-Sharing)

The government is encouraging "practical mitigations" like bay-sharing (where multiple projects share the same physical connection point at a substation).

Impact on Ampeak: Since Ampeak’s Uskmouth site is a "hub" with multiple BESS projects (AW1, AW2, AW3) and existing National Grid infrastructure, they are ideally positioned to benefit from these technical efficiencies, which could reduce their individual connection costs and lead times.

In short, the letter confirms that Ampeak’s strategy of securing planning permission early was the right move to survive the initial "queue purge," but they now face a much more competitive and financially demanding environment to bring those projects to "Financial Close."

I asked Gemini what it thought;

The open letter from the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) and Ofgem outlines a significant shift in the UK’s grid connection process. For **Ampeak Energy**, this is a "double-edged sword" that directly impacts their flagship **Uskmouth Sustainable Energy Park** and their broader project pipeline.

Based on the letter's contents and Ampeak Energy's current project status, here is how the reforms affect them:

### 1. The "Battery Surplus" and Competitive Risk

The letter highlights a massive surplus of battery storage projects in the connection queue—roughly **14.8 GW above** the 2030 target and **61.7 GW above** the 2035 need.

* **Impact on Ampeak:** Ampeak is heavily focused on Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) at Uskmouth (AW1, AW2, and AW3). While their projects are "mature" (many have planning permission), they are now part of a crowded field where the government is actively seeking to "encourage attrition" (forcing non-viable projects to leave the queue).

* **The Risk:** Even though Ampeak has planning consent, they may face increased pressure to prove the financial viability of their projects to keep their place in the queue.

### 2. Prioritization of Projects (Gate 2 / Phase 1)

The reforms transition from a "first-come, first-served" system to a "First-Ready, First-Connected" model.

* **Impact on Ampeak:** Ampeak’s **AW1 project** (scheduled for grid connection in 2026/27) and **AW2 project** (planning granted, targeted for 2029) likely benefit from "protection measures" mentioned in the letter because they have secured planning consent and are well-advanced.

* **The Benefit:** These projects are more likely to be prioritized for Gate 2 offers, potentially shielding them from the "cleansing" of the queue that removed 221 GW of less mature projects.

### 3. Financial Pressure and "Attrition"

The letter notes that industry parties are proposing **additional financial measures** to encourage projects to leave the queue.

* **Impact on Ampeak:** As a smaller developer compared to giants like SSE, Ampeak has a "fragile" business model (as noted in recent analyst reports). New financial hurdles—such as higher deposits or non-refundable fees to hold a connection slot—could strain Ampeak’s capital, especially since their revenue is currently "lumpy" and project-dependent.

### 4. Future Challenges for AW3 and Expansion

The letter mentions that for future windows, DESNZ and Ofgem are considering **disapplying protections** for battery projects that do not have a dedicated revenue support scheme (like the Long Duration Energy Storage "Cap and Floor" mechanism).

* **Impact on Ampeak:** Ampeak’s later projects, like the **1.4 GWh AW3 project** (due in the 2030s), may find it much harder to secure a connection. Unless Ampeak can secure a government-backed revenue contract for these later phases, they might be deprioritized in favor of projects that have secured such support.

Octopus have been doing it for a few years now and I have benefitted, free electric when there is too much (or if you are on the right tariff you get paid to use the surplus) and then when there is a shortfall you get incentivised to reduce your usage. I have batteries in conjunction with my Solar PV which makes it easier and allows me to utilise smart tariffs with cheap off peak power.

I agree @Run1 it's purely speculative at the moment and not helpful.

I am however encouraged by the amount of buys there have been since re-listing, although any sells are at a loss atm, unless they are transfers into an ISA. IDK whether the buys are current holders averaging down (as I have) or new investors taking a punt on a cheap stock. Not that any of this is an indicator that TGR has legs of course.

Also AW2 (should be this year) and MeyBESS financial close.

Further TBD BESS projects.

More CfD allocations for Meygen in July (potentially), AW1 coming online and generating revenue later in the year.

Anytime events, AW3 gaining planning permission, next phase of meygen getting financed, the best hope being GBE.

Yes I came here to suggest the same, I have a small holding in ITM and they are local to me so pleased for them, although since investing I have become more sceptical about Hydrogen's potential in the energy transition.

As I've said before, given Meygen's track record of generation, ability to scale, predictability etc.... and ~20GW of potential capacity in UK waters, it's a no brainer.

Vielen dank TL.

I hope that this inspires the UK government to do a bit more to support us.

Well put both of you, yes I was the same, previous average of 99p, so I have taken the chance and bought some more.

Sometimes this strategy has worked for me, sometimes it hasn't, I wish you all the best of luck.

That is very odd indeed, 6.25p was the price when the stock was suspended, so I suspect it's some kind of aberration.

It reminds me of when someone sends you an SMS when your phone is off and instead of it coming through when your phone is turned on again, it turns up 2 days later after being 'stuck' in the system. I have no knowledge of the finer details of how trades occur so could be talking a load of cobblers...