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From Beatley on ii, who seems to have spoken with pmo IR.
My take is it looks like they are hoping the Zama funds will be in latest q2020 so they can progress this refinancing early, which could solve much of this shorting crap and stock on loan etc....
It is very odd, especially with it being some a large position, feels a little underhand, but not sure what difference it would have made it everyone was aware of it earlier?!
They have, points below:
Historical disclosure issue for ARCM, position was built between Feb 2017 and July 2019, not traded since July
Hedging their credit exposure, position was built at the same time as they were acquiring debt in the secondary market
Premier were not aware of the position until this week, disclosure explains the different between stock on loan and declared short positions
Premier expect ARCM to close the position when we refinance, discussions on the this are progressing well and hopeful to resolve in Q1 2020.
Last point is interesting, hopefully we’re doing more than just extending the maturities with the current interest rates.
Exactly, many cheating members but the new cuts are based on some old numbers. Also its only for 3 months, so by the time the "cheaters" don't comply, the time will be up again. Saudi already been over complying, so really its not 500k. See what the market makes of it, but think they playing with numbers again. Anyway, guess could have been no cuts.
Lets see by 4.30pm how market reacts.
Latest tweet
OPEC and non-OPEC producers reportedly agree to deepen output cuts by 500K barrels per day in Q1 of 2020
OPEC+ AGREES TO 500,000 BPD CUT - not sure what split yet, but also Saudi already been cutting more, so not sure if this includes that or this is a total extra 500k.
They keeping quiet but looks like 500k cuts, main meeting starting in few mins. Just need to see if Saudi are doing extra cuts or using their over compliance last few months as part of their own cuts.
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/multimedia/349.htm
Shame PMO dropped from the high, but alot of selling this afternoon.
1m
OPEC MEETING: Saudi Arabia is offering fellow OPEC+ members a quid pro quo: If you stop cheating, we’ll curb production | Our latest wrap-up form Vienna | #OOTT
from various twitter accounts. This one as below.......be good if it happened but all hearsay at moment.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/OOTT?src=hash
David Sheppard
@OilSheppard
There’s growing chatter among analysts about a potential ‘Saudi surprise’ - a substantial cut of 800K b/d or more.
We’re treating cautiously as not confirmed and delegates are tight lipped. But uncommon level of message discipline (Iraq aside) is raising questions #OOTT #OPEC
Even if they just sat and hedged 100% at today's oil price, (now 63.73), which i know is just fantasy, they would pay another good chunk of debt off by end of 2020 and share price would rise quite a bit. As long as oil plays ball, the future looking rosy indeed. Come on OPEC, commit to those cuts.
I keep a count of short tracker shorts most days and put them in a calendar, so I can revert back easily myself for reference. I have done this since Nov 2016 and just checked back and NEVER had "Asia Research & Capital Management Ltd" ever listed in my calendar let alone suddenly at 16.85%.
So they appear from nowhere...... as Plebleens states, could be an error and disappear as quick. Certainly odd though.
RKH been up decent % last couple of days, if I had to stab it something I would say the rise last couple days it's something to do with sea lion.
Just shows though that the p i is always the last to know about anything.
Well, oil where it was and PMO up, who would have thought it. Whatever the reason, am accepting with open arms, certainly with yesterday's rise as well, something someone knows, or finally shorts now closing.
Think the 16% Asian short must be a error, as would be totally illegal just to come out surely.
Anyway, if it has to close now, we will be quids in. LOL
How does that work Geo, if say one party sent the sealed bids when oil was at $59 to people sending in last few days, especially today at $63 oil. One would assume they would be given another chance of a sealed bid at present oil prices. Not sure how it all works myself. So they will have an idea of bids around end of this week, but guess they could go back and forth first , making sure companies with highest bids have the finances in place, prepare contracts etc.....
By the time contracts gone back and forwards with both lawyers, could be Feb March time for money in.
Heardy, OPEC meeting starts tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. (Not sat as far as I am aware)
Good luck.
They even missed UT 90.00 by 0.02.
That must be an omen, no-one wants this at 90.00 LOL
Anyway good recovery from last Friday, just hope OPEC don't spoil this tomorrow and Friday.
Yes beerbull, anything possible in this market.
Wouldn't surprise me if they're taking oil up so they know opec may not do anything with cuts if they think oil is already up. Was thinking of selling a few today after that rise but then thought as usual will this go higher.
I'm sure tomorrow I will regret the decision.
Anyway if you're not in it you don't win it.
we won't really know what the decision of opec will be until Friday after their meeting with opec+
Keep fingers crossed and GLA.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
High Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)-4.856M
High Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)+3.063M
High Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)+3.385M
Good rise in Brent but getting over 90p (even 89p) today, seems an extremely hard nut to crack. I do think though that once we are over it it and break free, it won't be long to reach £1.00.
GLA
Until debt is down the shorters will hang around. Unfortunately I cannot see us knowing about final price achieved on Zama until earliest end Dec and can't see imoney actually arriving in pmo bank until Feb /March time.
Until then just hope they slowly unwind the stock on loan.
That alone should lift without the constant pull onto SP.
Oil back to 61 dollar, let's hope it stays up and continues to rise tomorrow. (Monday)
Come on OPEC, do the sensible action this week and announce further cuts and let's get oil back to 64/65 as quick as it dropped.
And of course, as suspected, another leg down after hours. These parasites are making millions and millions on oil manipulation. Crazy WTI down circa 5% in an hour.
As oiluser says, at least it screws shale again for a week or two.
Alfa, yes, I just keep thinking this is the rise up and don't want to lose the ride up as I will only have one bite, but gutting to see it fall so quickly.
Well, I have missed it now so nothing I can do.
Anyway, off to meet some old rugby pals for a drink tonight then got to entertain the in laws for the weekend. Another positive and a negative. LOL