Member Info for Tonsan

Hi Laallee - take a look. You'll see it.

The most respected poster (and coordinator) on the BPC Facebook page has now confirmed that Investec value as follows:
770 million barrels - 39p
1.4 billion barrels - 89p
Fantastic news - and we still have the CPR to bolster the former Columbus assets.
Bye-bye 3p shares soon!

If Exxon wanted to buy, firstly the BoD and big shareholders need to want to sell. Base on Simon Potter's comments, he's not interested until BPC strikes big. I could see Exxon trying to buy a pole position in the event of a strike with an Option. That would be conditional on the oil find at a certain level and would not need an RNS announcement. To me that makes sense if they had the options on exclusivity before. They know a lot!!

BPC has more than a virtual office on the IoM. I see it every week. I have no idea why you cannot get an answer except that they are obviously frantic pulling together the huge number of critical paths in time for 15th Dec. Offices here work as normal as we have been virus free in the community for some months.

JTK: As was explained at more than one AGM, the Board often want to be more open but the Nomads govern what they can say and when. I agree that Potter is paranoid about leaks but then leaks work both ways for retail innvestors.

Yes, thanks Starchild,
I wish I could get something more positive but I hoped someone on this Board might have picked up something similar. I remain on the case! At least the 6p seems to be correct - pending something from Proactive!

Can anyone confirm what Investec’s analyst concluded in the report published last week? Is it correct that their immediate target price was 6p with 39p on a find at the lower end of 770 million barrels and 89p on a top-end find of 1.4 billion?
That would mean that by spud, the price should be way above 6p in anticipation of possible success up to those levels.

If a placing means BPC has no need to rely on any CLNs, then to me some dilution is acceptable against a potential price by spud of way into double figures.We get the best of all worlds - the funding from Bizzell remains available till next April as an insurance policy , so bring on a placing at a fair price.No need for any farm-in. We keep 100% of the loot!

Hello Lallee! I agree with you that today's situation is different in terms of ol price and market conditions but while I think the oil price dampens farm-in potential (pre-spud), given that oil has a solid future for say 15 years or more after Covid, I discount the oil price as much of a negative. I agree the precedents are old now but as Starchild has commented, when has there been such a large reservoir dangling carrot-like in January - and with such a low cost drill. Simon Potter worked on $100 million cost, and then down to $50 million and now has halved that again to around $25 million.
Best of all - BPC still own 100% to counter the larger shares in issue. The historic 10-baggers were (as best I can recall) where there was a farm-in split which BPC does not have to endure. I respect other views but my faith is unshakeable on this being a 10-bagger.

Agreed Prospect. I see also suggestions of a price at spud of around 4p. To me that is delusional despite the number of shares in issue. I am still expecting solid double figures by then. History repeats itself and there are plenty of precedents for my expectation.

People keep sounding very worried about the prospects of success. Obviously there is no guarantee. The independent professional assessment was at around 35%. Even so, given that where Perseverance #1will be drilled has an already proven presence of oil from previous drills when it was an economic to move ahead, it seems hard to believe that with the different layers involved, and with all the expertise on board, the drill will be a duster. After all, the location and drill planning has the heavyweight input from Potter, Schrader, Koot, Uliel, Haliburton, Baker-Hughes, Moyes and more (plus presumably Stena to some extent).

I agree that Eytan was not at his finest but even so the overall message came across pretty well and I am assuming that his main intended target audience was majors and sophisticated institutional investors where there is little or less advantage in tub -thumping oratory.

ZagEgypt
Agreed that Uruguay and Columbus did not set the fuse burning (yet) but my point is that silence may be golden as AIM rules prevent wishy-washy announcements and big deals even once agreed in principle need lawyers and NOMADS - all time-consuming. If there were bad news, that has to be announced.

I like silence from the BoD. Long experience has shown that silence from BPC does not meant that nothing is happening. Most recently, a long silence meant that Uruguay and then Columbus apeared from out of left field in one week. Workaholics / enthusiasts like Potter are not likely to be twiddling their thumbs when there are so many moving parts that we know are needing to be worked on.

Starchild - thanks for the clarification.

Starchild: Can Schroder with nearly 2% of BPC at merger date sell shares without an RNS? I thought any shareholder over 1% had to notify?

Simon Potter differentiated this at the EGM last month. In effect it was bungled from start to finish. Wrong kit, wrong experience etc etc.

I would enjoy listening in to Simon Potter's reaction to Paul Griffiths repeating his offer of $1.45 million (or anything even close).

The results should be announced by about 10-15 tomorrow at the EGM and if like last year, were published as an RNS almost as soon as the Meeting concluded.
People (sadly not including me) did sell at 26p or thereabouts and shortly after that high point there were big changes on the BoD followed by Alan Burns death as the founder. Shares fell sharply .

Agreed Spiritefan. I also felt that there was a very careful selection of words from LK and he may know yet more of an undisclosable bigger picture plan to underpin why his Board was unanimous in recommending the BPC deal, knowing it would be so unpopular with his loyal shareholders.