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Gold price is up in terms of GBP. Pound has dropped from $ 1.32 to 1.30 approx
282 kg is a very low number. Q1/18 averaged 407kg/shipment & production 124 koz. Q2/18 shipments averaged 350 kg and Production 92 koz. As I mentioned earlier, Q3/18 shipments may have to average > 400kg to give a production of 135koz & Q4/18 shipments may have average> 450 koz to get > 155koz. Then only Year 18 could reach about 505koz. Of course this is only a very approximate guestimation.
1. I agree with Rebess that shipments are vital to indicate how CEY is performing. mr sparkle could you please continue to give that info.
2. Please also read my post Sat 12:03. I am giving below a comparison of my calculation Vs reported production.
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 YEAR/16 YEAR/17 Q1/18 Q2/18
94.87% 99.81% 99.97 97.71% 99.88% 98.74% 94.88% 98.24%
After reading CEY's reply to mrT ( Thu 11:03) & mr Bond's comments (Th 21;06, I decided to go a bit further & analyse CEY's figures from Year 16, Q1/17 - Q2/18), quarter by quarter , so that I get a good feel that my calculations are reasonably correct ( of course E&OE). This, I thought would make me understand, what CEY meant exactly in their reply to mrT, & the loss of production due to problems/lack of LHDR.
First the variance between guidance 05/06/18 and prelim results.
Guidance : UNDERGROUND : This is where, I believe, LHDR is used.
Amun /Ptah mines ( Stoping & Development) = 320 kt @ 6.6 g/t
Cleopetra mine : Development = 45 kt @ 2.75 g/t
TOTAL by calculation = ( 320x 6.6 + 45x 2.75) x0.873 (recovery) x 32.1507466 oz/kg ( mrT)
= 62,750 oz of gold
Actual Production Q2/18 Prelim) U/G ( Amin , Ptah & cleopetra Stoping & development)
by calculation = (180 + 109) kt x 4.62 g/t x 0.873 x32.1507466
= 37,475 oz of Gold.
Hence Loss of Production due to LHDR =(62,750- 37,475) = 25,275 oz of gold
or 25,275/ 62,750 x100 = 40% appr.
PLEASE NOTE that I am neither an analyst nor a gold mining engineer. And to mrB ond's or any others
suspicion, I am just a private investor , like all of you friends, but I BELIEVE in studying in detail before I
comment. Long before, I had over 250 k CEY shrs, but reduced to about 100 k , tilI I read the Revised
Guidance. I am not having any now, but will get in when I find the time is correct.
The following are the figures I got when did the analysis:-
1. Actuals (CEY's reports) Oz of Gold
Q1/17, Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Year 17 Year 16 Q1/18 Q2/18
115,052 124,641 156,533 154,298 544,658 551,036 124,296 92,803
109,147 124,404 156,490 157917 544,019 558,064 117,933 91,168
2. My Calculated figures (E&OE) are given above, includes dump leach .
I am waiting for Q2 results & Q3/18 PRELIM to make a firm decision.
Production deficit due to low grade ,compared to 05/06/18 Revised Guidance= 3,172kt x ( 1.35-0.99)g/t x0.873(recovery factor) x 32.1507466 oz/kg =32,050 oz of gold. Loss conisting of:
i) Underground loss = due to LHDR & grade ( Stoping + Development) = ( 320 - 289) kt x (6.6-4.62)g/t x 0.873x32.1507466 = 1,722oz
ii)Open pit loss = due to grade = (3172- 289) kt x (1.35-0.99) g/t x 0.873x 32.1507466 = 29,130 oz.
Please note that 300 kt/Q ore (approx) has been the underground production for year 2017 & Q1/17.
The above illustrates in numbers, the PROBLEM was the GRADE & not the LHDR.
I also noticed a gaff in page 2 of the report ." The underground ore delivered was .........approximately 1 g/t below revised forecast". Actually it was approximately 2 g/t i.e (6.6-4.62) less.
Is still possible for CEY to produce about 130,000 oz for Q3/18, if they hit a grade of 1.39 g/t as process feed & 158,000 oz for Q4/18,if they hit 1.72 g/t. The grades they achieved during Q3/17 was 1.82 g/t & 1.7 in Q4/17.
I rest my case mrtribbles.
Whoever has been giving the Shipments , please continue to provide this. Certainly it gives a very good insight into what the mine is producing. Only when we see around 450kg /week consistently, it would be reasonable to expect a target of 150,000 oz/Quarter. 410Kg/wk consistently would hit 135,000 oz range. That would also indicate that Centamin mine profile has actually hit sulphide strata. Please do not rule out shipments.
The figures & statements I quoted were based on the information obtained from Halifax Share dealing website & not from CENTAMIN website. I believe they project the same numbers.
The figures & statements I quoted were based on the information obtained from Halifax Share dealing website & not from CENTAMIN website. I believe they project the same numbers.
The figures & statements I quoted were based on the information obtained from Halifax Share dealing website & not from CENTAMIN website. I believe they project the same numbers.
For Personal attention of mrtribbles.
Q2 results goes well below their June 05/2018 DETAILED GUIDANCE REPORT which is rather unpallettable. Points to be taken with CEY are :
i) Open Pit Overall grade 0.51 g/t Vs 0.58 g/t (05/06/18 )
ii) Open pit feed grade 0.59 g/t vs 0.75 g/t "
iii) U/G feed grade 4.62 g/t vs 6.6 g/t "
iv) Stoping ore mined 018 Mt vs 1.28 Mt " (iv+v)
v) Development ore mined 0.109 Mt
vi) Cleopatra Development ore mined 0.048Mt vs 0.18 Mt
vii) " " Grade 1.77 g/t vs 2.75 g/t
viii) Process plant throughput 3.1 Mt vs 3.17 Mt GOOD
ix) " " FEEDGRADE (KEY ) 1.35 g/t vs NOT GIVEN, but cleverly covered in a passing statement " Its process plant performed in line with forecasts, despite its lower feed grade, as a result of lower u/g grade.
I have only assembled these figures to give a comparison as to " WHY & HOW" CENTAMIN could have erred so much when they had about 70 % of the actual figures on 05/06/18 of Q2 production. There are two key factors to play. Feed Quality & Quantity. Quantity they are 100 % correct. Can they change the mine strata or mix to deliver, say 130,000 oz in Q3 (1.58 g/t about 40%better grade in Q3 than Q2) & 157,901 oz in Q4 ( grade 1.92 g/t compared to Q4/17 grade only 1.69 g/t). These grades appear too optimistic for any management to commit to achieve. Perhaps these are the bullet points they should answer. Only if CENTAMIN can reassure that they could do
this with some dependable guidance table then we can consider to be in Centamin for a long haul.
My Q1/18 prediction based on Shipments came to 109,760 oz. If it is based on CENTAMIN's Revised guidance, the prediction will change a little as follows.
Q2 Production= Q1 Prodn x Q2 process plant feed (MT)/ Q1 Plant feed x Q2 feed grade /Q1 feed grade
= 124296 oz x( 3.2/3.1) x ( 1.35/1.56) =111,034 oz . ( all based on 05/06 /18 REVISED GUIDANCE)
My Q1/18 prediction based on Shipments came to 109,760 oz. If it is based on CENTAMIN's Revised guidance, the prediction will change a little as follows.
Q2 Production= Q1 Prodn x Q2 process plant feed (MT)/ Q1 Plant feed x Q2 feed grade /Q1 feed grade
= 124296 oz x( 3.2/3.1) x ( 1.35/1.56) =111,034 oz . ( all based on 05/06 /18 REVISED GUIDANCE)
When one discusses gold it is always TROY oz!; I used a factor of 27.6745/Kg; viz 32.105 oz/Kg x 0.862 (for purity)
3966 Kg x 32.105 oz of gold/Kg x 0.862 (purity factor) = 109,757 oz of pure gold. I agree with mrtribbles it should be
32.150 rather than 32.105; when corrected would give 109,910 oz. When SIKO gave the shipment figures I used to
get the production projection with 86.2% purity reasonably reconciling with CENTAMIN figures.
Q1/18= 4891Kg(including 1/1/18; 4486 Kg - excluding 01/01/18)& Production =124296 oz( 4486x27.6745=124,147).
Q2/18 projection, based on shipments approx4211-245 = 3,966Kg x 27.6745 =109,757 oz. This assumes CENTAMIN
mine's plant system refined product is 86.2% pure. ( I doubt whether that changes, without further purifying process
plants added). 109,760 oz is my number.
Also please note that Centamin's REVISED GUIDANCE has budgeted for a processing plant capacity of 12.6 million
tonnes per anum, though they state the rated capacity is 11-12 mpta.
Many thanks, mrtibbles. The most important part of their reply is " THE KEY IS THE GRADE". LHDR or Long Haul Rig DRILL was certainly part of the reason for APRIL 2018 PRODUCTION. BUT NOT FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR 2018.
Mine rescheduling couldn't help much. Hence 70,000 oz less production for the YEAR 2018. I am not writing this to
offend anyone. But these are FACTS, which the management have cleverly published , so that the investors know
what to look for. So let us not fight within ourselves. I had over 100k shares and disposed all when I read their 05/06/18 REVISED GUIDANCE, particularly Page 5.
I agree with flopticalcube. Probably 107,500-110,000 oz. 115,000 is MAXIMUM.
Regarding my earlier post today, Mrtibbles & Cowchan appear to have misunderstood my post. Please read Centamin,s
Q1 Production report of 25 May & their REVISED GUIDANCE of 05 June, which coraborates the may 25th numbers.
This gives a guidance for the rest of the year based on all DRILLS availability, but reduced 2018 output by 70,000 oz
Certainly the non availability of the drill during April cannot be the reason. It must be the overall plant feed grade from now till end of December. ie 1.35 g/t as opposed to1.6 g/t based on Q4/17 & Q1/18. (1.35/1.60x 12.6/12.30).
I have allowed for increased feed tonnage of 12.6 MTPA as opposed to 12.0 MTPA
Well Mr Tribbles, I have been enjoying reading the posts & there was nothing much to add, since things were moving
correctly. It is only Centamin's Target has been changed & unfortunately you were putting the blame on the Management. I studied their June 5th report in bit more detail. It is reasonably clear that the REVISED PRODUCTION
target for 2018 is because of the mine geology of the OPERATING areas they have revised the 2018 PRODUCTION.
So blaming on the DRILLING CONTRACTOR is rather unwise,when the TRUE problem is the actual grades they could get out of the mine ( OPEN PIT & UNDERGROUND), for this year. Please read their report carefully.2019 may be a different story.
Josef would have had a full knowledge of the STRATA of the MINE, well ahead. The loss of production is due to
the geology of the mine and NOT the DRILL Mr Tibbles! Please read my earlier post of Today. The revised plan for
2018 is 510 K approx. That target to reach is Q(3+4) has to be 270k oz. It is going to be tough with the projected
grades for 2018.
Sorry! Underground production should read 7.7 & 7.2 g/t for Q1/18 &Q4/17 resp.vs 6.6 for 2018 revised 5/6/18