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Good to see regular buy backs, should help the share price and NAV
I'm not betting on the "hydrogen economy", the round trip efficiency of electricity to storage and back is less than 50%; batteries are over 90%. Hydrogen could give long term storage but pump storage ( the Norwedgen battery) or flow batteries are over 85%.
Lithium is relatively abundant but my middle term bet would be plug in hybrids. They use much less lithium, weigh less, have no range anxiety; and still need pgms.
Always struggled with chart patterns, its always easy to see them after the fact or see patterns when none are there.
I've just been sitting in the hot tub admiring the clouds and saw a pattern of a dog and a few seconds later it turned into a dragon. Humans are wired to see patterns but often doesn't help with investing.
I think on of the issues is that small stock patterns such as those in small O+G companies on AIM may be quite different from say the stock patterns seen in large stocks, and in the patterns of large markets such as the S+P500. And patterns over hours maybe quite different to those over days , months or years.
That said I am more impressed by the double tops often seen in major bubble markets and it looks like we maybe seeing those form in S+P500, and tech100. Driving those are patterns in stocks like Tesla.
There must be interest in helping TXP get more gas out of the ground before next winter. LNG prices are going to be very good, and they have lots of spare capacity in the LNG train; but TXP is on a fixed contract and somewhat strapped for cash with alternative oil opportunities.
If I were the minister I would be offering generous loan terms to get more wells drilled now and maybe an uplift on the present contract if prices are above a certain level.
There’s gas and 2rigs.
These guys aren’t stupid.
I think we need to look at the big picture.
PB and his geologists believed that the turbidite model extended across most of the Ortoire block and it appears they are right.
The geology is quite complex with faults and fold but the turbidites are there and the reservoirs are there with gas and oil. They have over 20 potential targets and it is highly likely that they will have further successes.
Indeed they are likely to be even more successful as exploration continues as the understanding of the geology improves.
Then there's kraken.
Just think its worth re=posting companies presentation
hTTps://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TXP-March-2022-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
Cascadura remains the main reason to continue to invest.
Initial production from the 2 wells TXP already has expected to be in excess of 9,200 boe/d, 55mmcf/day; and long term contract will deliver ? $30million/year. But with 3 more planned drill pads we should see this triple or quadruple.
Cascadura
This more than supports the long term share price.
With all the other prospects the upside is huge.
They do have a fund, they need to spend it; be seen to be the bigger man; invite those who are causing trouble to help decide how to spend it. And May be throw in a couple of million more if there is more help and less hindrance.
Call it Comms or ESG; its the world we live in.
When you look at the hit that many companies, including oil companies, are making over Russia then its small beer. Cost of doing business.
We need to see a new Royston development well drilled.
The Royston well was an exploratory well, targeting multiple zones and actually set up expecting gas.
A development well targeting one of theses zones for oil will be drilled differently with different placement in the structure and will be likely perforated more. Hopefully the flow rate will be much higher and the water cut lower.
The ROC could be very quick and the world of TXP look very different.
Doesn't sound good; especially when the company could be making plenty or money at current prices. They need to start handing it out even without government support. Schools, health clinics etc. Make sure they are not just seen as the bad guys.
Quite, he retweets, that isn't quite the same as he did in the past; he even posted on this forum when he saw comments about the geology that he didn't feel were correct.
But in case he still reads this forum, ... Xav an update on the geology would be great!
With the price of palladium pushing $3000/oz and Rhodium at $20,000/oz JLP should be seeing a very high cash flo.
But Platinum can be used as substitute and for palladium its 1:1 in petrol catalytic converters.
And against gold it is at historic lows as a fungible and transportable form of wealth.
So I am thinking of buying more JLP but shorting palladium; easily done by spread betting.
Does this seem a good idea, or am I missing something??
Trinidad is an island so other than domestic power the use of NG is limited; instead it is used industrially principally methanol or to LNG. Unfortunately the value of NG for these purposes is low.
Fortunately TXP has a lot of it and its cheap to produce, and even better they now have oil.
Platinum is easily moved, and one of the main users for catalytic converters is china; I don't think they will be too fussed if it comes from Russia. Short term though there maybe some speculation that will push the price up though.
Good things come to those that wait.
Cascadua is coming and its "wall of cash"
When they have $4-5million a month coming in this will fund a new well every 6-8weeks as PB indicates
But Royston was an exploration well.
The first development wells will still have learning to be got, this will still take time.
As that experience is gained, and as new Cascadura and Royston wells are drilled; more cash will flow and more wells will be drilled; I suspect every 4-6weeks by 2023; and we see new exploration wells drilled, and maybe new licenses...
With 200mcf/d we should see $10million/month from Cascadura. $120million/annum
But iRoyston: its the first time we have seem PB putting some more thought on likely outcome. 10-12,000bopd peak doesn't seem unreasonable from a number of wells, 4million barrels/annum, $30/barrel, $120million/annum, so similar to Cascadua.
The wells are deep, will not be cheap; but at peak this company could be throwing of as much cash/annum as its market cap.
Cascadura will produce for years, if not decades.
Royston? 40-50million barrels? With modern reservoir management 100million? With CO2 flooding that T+T is just made for, 150million??
The other 20+ targets they have so far identified have got to be significantly derisked.
Everyone talks of Kraken but I still want to see Cascadura deep target drilled. They tried twice and failed in spectacular fashion.
We have to wait.
There are other companies that may deliver multibagger returns if they come good, but they equally could go bust. You just would not want to "bet the farm", or even more than 10% of a porfoliio.
TXP at these prices is a rare beast IMO were the share price is well covered by future earnings and has very significant upside in a stable jurisdiction.
You can invest a much larger part of your portfolio and just wait. 2-3years it could be 2-3-4x what it is now, and very, very unlikely to be less. If it is less its probably going to be even a better buy.
JLP looks similar, PETN also but less attractive given recent rise.