Member Info for TimberTrader

@ TMT

I accept there is no reason why an exploration company can't own part of such an asset and I don't believe that anyone has specifically said that they can't. However, IMHO, I just don't see it, going forward. I don't believe that the BOD of NCM and shareholder's would wish to be in that position. However, that naturally makes our situation very strong indeed.

As Nicholas Mather of Solgold stated in a recent interview, "I think the view that major's have had about junior's, up until very recently, are that junior's are the short term custodians of major's assets. We certainly don't view it that way. It's our asset and if they want it they'll have to pay for it."

And that's the crux of it as I see it. IMHO, there is no way that NCM will want to have GGP taking a slice of Havieron ad infinitum. It then comes down to what the value of the remaining asset is and how it's sold.

Just my view, as it's been for some time now, and only time will tell what actually happens.

@ tiggerman That pretty much matches with my current view on GGP going forward too.

@ WF I have no issues with your personal view, it's all about opinions. As always, only time will tell... :-) TT

I have no issue whatsoever with your last post WF, but, to say, "Wake, smell the cheese. It is the most unlikely scenario ever." just doesn't fit with my personal opinion on GGP, going forward, if it fits.

@ Lenz

Thinking doesn't always result in reality! ;-)

@ WelshFalcon

It's not so simple though is it?

By your understanding of the issue, there seems to be no point where an agreement can be made between two party's.

Are you suggesting that there is no point when it would be profitable for Greatland Gold to sell out to NCM, or any other party? What's 'nonsensical' about it?

Sorry SWG, but I just don't see it going that way. IMHO a buyout is the most likely option going forward. It may well not be 'now', but it will happen well before the "nice dividend flow for years to come". scenario, again IMHO.

I totally agree with BTB on the mining/exploration issue. However, the big question is, and will always be, what is 'fair market value'?

I totally appreciate, and understand, the emotions that always come in to these types of questions, but, quite frankly, if NCM made an offer in the next few months, it will of course be considered, but the small shareholder will have very little say in what actually happens.

A piece here:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-investment-funds-berkshire/berkshire-slashes-wells-fargo-jpmorgan-stakes-adds-barrick-gold-idUKKCN25A2RM

Hello SA,

The following site will hopefully be of some use to you:

GGphelp.co.uk

However, as a person that likes to do a lot of research into any potential investment, and continues to do so throughout the life of that investment, I can only, with great respect, suggest you maybe make some time to do so too. Good luck, whichever way you go. TT

Agreed! TT

Indeed Stebol! Well put!

Unlike many comments on the forum, post the report/presentation, I see little, if anything, than more positives! Maybe I've read more into it than most people?

I see the comments by Biswas as nothing less than very positive for GGP going forward, especially the possible extent of the motherlode, at depth, which many of us have discussed for many months!

As always, only time will tell, but I'm convinced that the market has, and continues, to underestimate Havieron, and what's down there, including at depth!

DYOR & GLA

Good grief! Not another one! The pathetic old chestnut about it being negative for a director of a great company taking out a very small part of what's due to them!

Some people really do need to get a life and appreciate that we all have reasons to crystallize an asset at some point.

When does the op suggest that GH does the same?!

Apologies! I just realised that this piece was from last month! ;-(

Newcrest Mining

James Marlay: Blake, let's start with you, Newcrest Mining, big, shiny, a little bit boring. Buy, hold, or sell?

Blake Henricks: It's not boring, James. I take offence to that. It's a buy. The reasons it's a buy is current expectations are that production is going to decline over the next five years. The market is seeing it as a two-trick pony, which is Lahiri and Katiya. We actually think they've got three outstanding growth projects. Two of them are Brownfield in Canada and Australia, high free cash flow generation. One of the best miners globally. Newcrest is a buy.

James Marlay: Gold price is up 19 per cent year-to-date. It's been a great place to be. Buy, hold or sell on Newcrest?

Jun Bei Liu: Newcrest is a hold for me. I agree with you on gold. We do prefer the others such as Saracen mainly for the consistency in terms of delivery. So they consistently delivered for seven years without disappointment. You pay a little bit more for the company like Saracen, but we do prefer that one instead. But I agree with Blake that Newcrest is underperformed at the peers. It's pretty cheap relative to the others. And potentially there's a bit of upside in terms of relative to expectations now heading into the reporting season.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/buy-hold-sell-newcrest-mining-telstra-zip-co-csl-domain-20200724-p55f3x

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/gold-miner-newcrest-posts-higher-profit-as-precious-metals-price-soars/news-story/0443fb147e52910938efb2d75e05497f

Gold miner Newcrest has booked a 15 per cent rise in full-year net profit after a surge in the precious metal’s price more than offset a fall in production....

...Newcrest could have made a bigger profit, given it lost $US82 million to hedging ounces from its huge Telfer mine in Western Australia, which is locked in to 2022-23, meaning it misses out on cash it could have earnt when the price exceeds around $A1900 ($US1356) an ounce on average over that period.

Newcrest produced 2.17 million ounces during the 12 months to June 30, down 13 per cent on last financial year.

Telfer is ageing, so the company seeks to lift output with the nearby Havieron deposit and the Red Chris mine in Canada, its entry into North America, both acquired last year.

“Our ownership of Havieron over the year increased to 40 per cent as we track towards 70 per cent, underpinning the future of Telfer,” chief executive Sandeep Biswas said.

He said the company expected to add new production ounces to its portfolio from these growth options in due course and part of $1.2 billion raised in April would be spent on building declines at Havieron and Red Chris...

IMHO, this is one of the most important phrases used in this presentation

It's also increasingly being used by both Biswas & Heddle, but the indications were there many months ago.

Just one early example:

Proactive interview with GH 5th February 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=B0EnEUVWkfc

- Drill holes are only "scratching the surface" of the system

- Potentially very significant system at depth - Down to 1,400m or more

I believe that this is where we'll maybe see some surprises in the near future, as to the actual size of the motherlode.

Maybe a few late trades going through today? Just a thought?

For reference, and as I posted on the 8th August, here is what was posted a year ago, which may be useful as to what to expect shortly..

In looking forward, it's sometimes useful to look back...

Last year we had the following:

Full Year Results FY19
16th August 2019

“We continued to invest in growth during the year, gaining exposure to another operating asset, the Red Chris mine
in Canada. Our plan is to improve the current operating performance and, subject to drilling and further study,
transform Red Chris into a Tier One operation by means of block caving. We also gained access to a promising
prospect in the Havieron deposit which, subject to drilling and further study, could considerably improve the
profitability and extend the life of Telfer....”

...First drill results from the Havieron Project in Paterson Province Western Australia have confirmed the presence of
higher grade copper-gold mineralisation, with best results including 17m @ 21g/t Au and 0.39% Cu from 1,153m
(HAD006 extension).

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf

Newcrest Briefing Book
16th August 2019

Havieron – Opportunity for Telfer
• Farm-in agreement on the Havieron tenement
with potential to deliver high grade ore feed to
Telfer
• Newcrest to manage the exploration program
• $5m minimum commitment over initial 12 months,
with potential to earn 70% JV interest through
expenditure of $65m over a 6 year period
• Option to earn an additional 5% interest at the
end of the farm-in period at fair market value
• If successful:
• Ore to be trucked to Telfer for processing
• High grade ore could extend Telfer’s life and
lower its production cost per ounce

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Briefing%20Pack.pdf

FY19 Presentation
Sandeep Biswas

Havieron: Presence of higher grade copper-gold mineralisation confirmed.

Successful development of the Havieron deposit has the potential to materially improve AISC margin and mine life at Telfer

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2019-10/190816_Newcrest%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Presentation.pdf