RE: Tilton30 Dec 2015 18:22
Can't believe I'm spending my holiday answering questions on DQE...but here goes!
You only have to look at the way that the company is set up to realise that analysing is difficult...so DQE own 100% of DQE Mauritius who own 75% of DQE India who own 100% of DQE Ireland. The valuable part of DQE is possibly the IP.
The bonds were issued by DQE Mauritius and $35m was drawn. It is not safe to assume the other $15m has not been drawn, as they didn't announce the $35m had been drawn down? These bonds carry a cash coupon of 6.5%, and a PIK coupon of 6.5%. Let's say that only $35m has been drawn down, then $2.275m is due in interest payments, and the same figure accrues as an increase in the principle amount of the bond, and so on for three years.
We now come to a Qualifying Liquidity Event occurring within three years..whatever that is supposed to entail. The bond holders then can force the issue. If they convert into equity they will control 56.5% of DQEM, plus the rolled up PIK interest, plus they had the audacity to award management options over a further 25% of the equity. In that scenario we could end up owning only 10% of something that is currently wholly owned!
You mention my "sarcastic" comment about receivables. I can tell you there was no sarcasm in my post. I might be cynical, but I believe with good reason, after following the events at RCG, CAMK, GNG, and a few others. Admittedly the others are all Chinese scams IMHO, but there are similarities here! In the case of GNG, it took them three years to admit that most of their receivables were only due under certain circumstances, and ended up taking a huge write-off.
More later.