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No, that's the point fair, I don't believe it, just take different opinions on board. Justin Waites is a respected figure, for example. For facts, refer back to message to dick from yesterday on instructions to find the CS report in which jog listed in securities held. End off
Fair! There are the facts we know, and yes of course we can speculate further! That's what these boards are for! Justin Waites for one, search for his name on Twitter, in relation to city financial, you'll see some of the commentary from him and some of the other regulars on there. If you don't want to be aware of it because it's not all factual, don't look!
I wouldn't expect any one of you to admit it! Let's just see what happens. Tom, my sign off message last night was supposed to be just that, but dick was due a reply. Sorry if the board has become unbalanced with the 20 to 1 ratio, I'm sure it'll be back to 100% positivity soon, and any negative news that's of relevance to jog will be ignored in swashbuckling fashion.
dick, there's no real need to muddy the waters, the only facts are the ones you've seen in black and white, the who, when, how much, the fact CF are in trouble, and that many of the securities they held were swimming in a sea of red on Friday. Just to be clear, the rest is pure speculation. Well known commentators on social media seemed to be suggesting they were getting sold down, but I do not know and I'm certainly not saying that is correct. People can look for themselves. It could have been other holders selling in fear that was going to happen, although that didn't seem to be the consensus. As we know to our frustration, markets these days are rarely logical, and the unknowns around this will have an effect, in my view. Just like a swarm of wasp stings, painful for a time, then on we go. That wasn't the only reason for sitting out, although it pushed me over the edge. Oilies are getting into the habit of peaking earlier and earlier prior to drilling, what was once sell on spud has been moving closer to sell on rig mobilisation!.. And I'm tired of holding the baby into drilling while the traders are already out 20% higher. Even long termers need to manage their holding to advantage, it's the nature of the beast these days. Too many of these in loose hands, and it's not the lone voice of one poster who sees immediate downside that you should be wary of.... I've been clear on my position and motivations.... It's all these traders throwing around ridiculous numbers and doing the very opposite to what they say on here. Those are the danger to new buyers, and frustration to long termers. Are they looking for another few percent before the turn, or happy to sell out on Monday morning? Who knows.
Lolololol I feel for you!
So you saw the sea of red then? I've been invested here a long time so it took a very good reason for me to sell. When I saw what seemed to be going on with the CF securities, I took an impulsive decision to get out. Like you say, could go either way but obviously I'm expecting some downward pressure short term until we see what's going to happen. Surely you aren't having a go at me for sharing information here? Sometimes frightening information is the most useful. Selling was a gamble, but holding after realising what was going on with CF, and the price in the high 240s, it seemed wrong. This debacle has zero relevance down the line so no worries, maybe just a chance to take advantage of the situation rather than get dictated to by it, for a change.
Evening dick, it's in the interim report and financial statements dated 31/10/18. Holding as at that time 360,000. Should find it on the CF website. If you scroll through the other securities on their books and look at price action on Friday you'll see plenty red. I have no idea if they still hold, I just think it's likely.
Offloading 800k would make a very large dent, and everybody knows it! I'll be happier when I get back to being a quiet LTH, as I'm sure all you lot will be! Good luck to me on picking up some scraps from the CF fallout, and more importantly good luck to all on the drill!
They have filed an intension to appoint the administrators, correct. Which may mean they had trouble trying to sell as a going concern. For whatever reason it seems many of their holdings were being heavily sold down on Friday, and despite the reasurrances on here, nobody has any idea what fate awaits their 360k. The uncertainty, potential damage, meant I took some profits and will be back in when the fog clears. Obviously I think it'll be cheaper, but I'll be back in either way. Good luck all
I think the 5k sells might have been, couple more larger round figure sells too, so maybe 40 odd k. Sold into heavy buying before people knew the score as well. Could be 320k left IF that was them selling yesterday. Seems probable, as like you say, many others were sold down heavily.
Bit unfair I think urraca, there's no evidence a single share has been sold, and making people aware of the situation so they can look into it themselves is just fine. I would argue it's worse trying to brush it under the carpet, for what reason? Yes, financial gain, same as my deplorable motive. 360k is not small fry, and my suspicions are the liquidators are still to unload it, which is why I sold. Short term, more of a gamble being in, in my view. Long term this is completely irrelevant to jog, just unlucky they're getting caught up in it now.
At best they could have offloaded a small proportion yesterday, but just as likely not even started here yet.
Any evidence for that bb? Isn't it more likely the administrators are liquidating their positions? Not sure how you can be so certain.
Mesquida, I don't think they've been aggressively selling jog all this week. I sold out today when I heard the news, might be wrong but I think it'll be up to the administrators to liquidate most of their holdings, including this one. A number of 5k sells today, not sure if that was them. Price held up very well against that.
Any evidence they held 360k then, as you said? Try using a quarter of the daily volume to work out how long it will take to offload them
Unfortunately that was Schroders. Any evidence CF had been reducing previously?
Excellent post, all bases covered there! Makes you wonder whether there's a link between them being unlikely to require, what was a facility on good terms, and SS mentioning how the seismic opens up the opportunity for deals in Tunisia. Also, is SS the type of CEO who'd mention such a thing if he wasn't confident that would indeed turn out to be the case? On Sarawak, given that we've been looking at specific assets for some time, it seems possible, if not probable, that SS knew the type of deal likely there when the facility was allowed to lapse, and for confidentiality, legal or political reasons can't make it known yet. If this is true, also makes you wonder whether there may not be such a demand for cash initially. Just speculation, but not hard to imagine Brooke taking on more up front costs for a larger slice of pie, for example. SS will be mindful of how tiny our mcap is after the Wick sideshow failure wiped out half our value, and I would imagine will tread carefully until he gets us back up to more realistic levels.
To say you believe SS was banking on Wick to progress things is to say he is extremely foolish and reckless. I'd be surprised if anyone who knows the company agrees with that, and I'd be surprised if you actually mean it. More likely to me that you sold up in the 1.70s and are desperate to get back in lower. The only horror story in the interims would come if the reader forgot we aren't a producer beforehand. Your language suggests to me you aren't currently a holder. No offense, just don't like comments like that lingering on a board without question. I suspect SS will be very careful around funding the next stage of development. We'll know the score in Sarawak first, I believe we'll rerate when we do. We don't know what requirements will be there, what type of deal, let's just wait and see. Funding Tunisia could be seriously eased if the volumes of gas in superb location attract transformative deals as SS himself suggested. Let's wait and see there too. I think we're seriously undervalued enough already without trying to talk the price down, best not to be greedy with the buy in.
Cash position good until at least June, would be crazy to raise money now. Sit out until Q3 and you'd be sure to miss the one we're all waiting for. Sarawak more likely only weeks away, what's virtually anything remotely positive going to do to our tiny mcap? We'll worry about money after that, if we don't get a sweet deal in Tunisia first of course ;)
Anybody know when we're likely to find out where Chevron's NS assets are headed? That could signal an end to the malaise