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I'm going to hold here too... big earnings increase coming in 6 weeks time. Even at £9 its undervalued
I've just done some basic maths. They state in their latest trading update that Q3 YTD organic gross profit growth was 'over 10%'. In the H1 update it was 9% (although we dont know decimal places, let's assume it was exactly 9.0%, or £87.2m... also assuming that both Q3 and Q4 are equally-weighted, and knowing that H2 delivers 56% of yearly profit, then to move the YTD figure from +9.0% organic growth to 'over 10%', then the minimum Q3 profit growth would have to be +12%, which would deliver total Q3 YTD organic gross profit growth of +10.2%. Assuming that this trend continues into Q4, then that would mean full year organic GP growth of +10.7%, above forecast. Of course, that's worst-case scenario and it could actually be higher than that... no wonder a load of directors bought shares!
Sorry meant Q3!
Probably have to wait until results day for this to rise... either way, good buy for a company who's profit increased during Q1...
You're joking me... who? :)
Take a read of this article in the Guardian- their warehouses are processing THREE TIMES the normal daily order volumes... think I'll hold what I have here!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/why-are-people-buying-boob-tubes-fashion-workers-anger-at-owners-and-consumers
Director purchases I notice... strong show of faith! They obviously aren't worried being in the right sector
This is sinking like a stone. I think it's the debt that has people rattled... general consensus seems to be £340m by year end, which i make around a leverage of 2.5x, which isn't massive, but it's a little higher than where it needs to be. Theres absolutely no way this is even close to failing, but I think the markets might be pricing in another fundraising at some stage, either for an acquisition, or to pay down some of the debt..
Surprised that this has been hit recently along with all the rest of the markets, given that it's one of few businesses likely to actually gain from Covid19
Just did a but of maths myself... if they announce another special divi, and with profit up 150% and EBITDA up 65%, even if they hold it at the same level (5.2c last time), with the share buyback it now works out as 6.5c, or around 5p per share. That's an instant 9% yield at these rock-bottom orices... and that's of they dont decide to raise it, which given the high price of gold, they may well do
Either way you look at it- this will be a record breaking year. I think if they decide on a special dividend it will be announced at the same time as the Q4 production update due any time now
I've taken a small holding here. Could dribble down to 50p, or, and this is my view, this could rocket up quite sharply. Fundamentals were strong on H1 update, but both gold & silver have shot up by about 20% since then.
The new resource levels show around 8 years left, without any addition veins explored (which are starting to look promising), and without their new mine resources too. Strong buy at this price for me, and an easy bagger
Does anyone know when the trading update is due? I know its soon..
I'm looking for a steady H1, with around 10% rev growth, same for profit, and net debt either the same or lower than the end of the year. If those boxes are ticked I'll be happy
Skier. So this is going to £1? That would value the business at £1.5bn... yet they're forecast to post around £2bn in profit this year... doesn't sound very feasible does it? Even on a bargain-basement 6x EBITDA multiple, fair value is around £9bn, or a share price of £6.20. Cant see it going much lower than it already is
Positive mention by the fools too...
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/11/11/why-id-buy-this-13-ftse-100-dividend-yield-for-my-isa-today/
Doesn't look like theres a 3rd dividend then, perhaps no bad thing. Even if it dropped to around 50p from 78p annually it would represent a return of 14% at current share price. The next update will be key. Looking at the facts from the H2, debt increased only very slightly, cashflow was up, and around £500m of the reduction in profit was down to 1-off impairment & currency swings- hardly a business on its knees. I'll top up at anything below £5.50
Add to that over the last 12 months, under £8 is about as low as it's gone, and it's made more progress over the last year. Not much happening in terms of events, so I suspect it made sense to wipe out the stop-losses set at £8 before moving up again. My advice, increase your holding with anything under £9...
And this from today's markets day should help keep the dividends coming:
Alliance News) - Steelmaker Evraz PLC on Friday said an ongoing efficiency programme is expected to add USD350 million to 2019 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.