George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
My gut tells me to sit tight and don't get too excited or too concerned in the short term Chris.
It was good meeting you Richard as well as the other posters from LSE at the meeting today.
To start with a negative from today, it was frustrating to see the vast fabrication area still more or less dormant. I was at the Investors day in Belfast back in February and it was the same then. A positive though from this is the Cory new barge contract starting in the next month or so and will have this place buzzing again. The £2M robotic welder in the fab hall is an impressive piece of kit and is expected to demonstrate it's worth on this contract.
I'm not going to feed back Arun said this or Graham said that, i'm simply going to feedback my own personal thoughts, hunches and feelings from the discussions.
These are :-
Islandmagee - i'm not expecting earth shattering developments anytime soon, but i'm more confident that we have an asset of value here. Arun has given me greater confidence that the company want to maximize the value potential here and by thoroughly exploring all options.
MOD work - My hunches tell me we're getting a slice of this pie very soon. As for not getting the recent 10yr 30M service contract for the QE class vessel, this was a very good result for us ! ! (in my opinion). Don't assume as i did that we won't get work from this though.
Sizeable renewables contracts - With the UK content requirement, this is certain work coming to us, and work with good margins too. Is it coming soon. Nah, are my thoughts for the big value stuff. I'd say 2023 is more likely.
Cruise ship work - This was my first time meeting Graham Cowzer and in my opinion he is obviously a very knowledgable and experienced guy, who has not just an impressive CV but he has a presence about him that oozes confidence, passion in this business and a 'I'll get this job done' attitude about him. This bloke will bring biz to H & W !
Financials, cash flow, audit, etc - My biggest concern 6 months ago was, is there sufficient monies to keep the company lights on until we get the bigger contracts. Im far less concerned about this now. Work is coming in and we have the debt facility to ease this short term concern. Reasons for audit details not yet being released ? The reasons given for this are acceptable to me when explained.
Am i more confident in my investment after today ? The answer is a very firm YES !
Have i new worries after today ? Also yes !
My new concern is that if we get a lot of the potential work we're hoping for, can we get the required labour to deliver on it ? The top guys believe we can, and i hope we can as i feel there's a tsunami of work coming to us later this year.
Finally folks, i'd strongly recommend you go to these Investor days if you ever get an opportunity. Don't rely on very brief non specific feedback from me or anyone else. You WILL get more from these by being there in person.
GLA.
Belfast is just a wee scoot down the motorway for me so I'm also gonna be there on the 16th. It'll be good to meet up with a few of you guys there too.
Here's the link
https://www.fifechamber.co.uk/events/fife-learn/2022-may/behind-scenes-harland-wolff-methil
There's a H & W Methil Open Day event on 11th May. I see it's being organized by Fife Chamber of Commerce and only appears to be open to their members.
It's a long shot, but are any of you guys here members, and going to this event ? It would be good to get some feedback if there are.
With Kavé Sigaroudinia now increasing his holding from 4% to 5% today, this for me is a massive positive. This guy is a big hitter in the financial world. 20+ years at Baillie Gifford and also a partner in the firm too.
With the RNS being in his name as the holder, this suggests it's his own capital he's investing which is another big positive. It's all well and good with an investment or fund manager investing their clients monies in a share, but when they actually invest their own money in a particular share, it makes me sit up and take a bit more notice.
Also with the RNS yesterday of Sankofa Strategic Equity Fund coming in with a +3% holding this has been 2 good days for the Harl share price. My experience tells me that these types of investors are usually better informed and more knowledgeable than many of us 'Joe Publics'. I wonder what their knowledge might be ?
Back to Kavé though. To me, this type of individual buying is a great sign of future potential that might be here. The only other type of buyer that could trump Mr Sig as being a more significant buyer would be one from the Harl board itself.
Hmmmmm. I wonder could we see some more near future RNS's ?
Thanks a lot Lottie for sharing your knowledge and thoughts, they're really appreciated here.
Ta too Nobby. As a very LTH, a substantial holder and a holder with experience and knowledge in energy markets (all info gained from your postings over the years, lol), your thoughts and opinions are very much respected and valued here too. With you being known to the board, and the board reading LSE, im hoping they're taking note of your issues and concerns too !
Time will obviously answer our concerns and we'll eventually find out if JW and team are genius' playing a great game of industrial chess to maximize the opportunities that are around us. We just dont want to hear the words 'check mate' if the game isnt being played as well as it could.
My glass is still half full, despite my Sunday night Sandemans infused rantings.
GLA
I just popped an earlier post on here thanking a regular poster for their knowledge and contributions here.
Thinking about it though i feel it is very relevant for me to say thank you to EVERYONE who takes the time to post here. Some of you folk do a lot of research and take quite a bit of time out to share this info with the rest of us. This is very much appreciated and THANK YOU !
I spend quite a bit of time on various share boards but only tend to post to this one (and on Harl shares) as i find it the most informative with less nutters and eejits than many other pages, lol.
It would be good though to see some of the old posters back again and even better to get some new posters too. If you maybe even work in some of the 4 Harl sites it would be great to have some of you guys posting as well. Some info directly from the horse's mouth would be invaluable. I wouldn't expect any company secrets obviously, but even some comments along the lines of 'us guys are up to our eyes with overtime aplenty' to 'we're scratching our ar.es waiting for the next job to come in' . . . absolutely any info at all would be good to get.
Ta again folks for all your comments, positive, negative and everything in between.
Hi Lottie. I think I'd be right in saying that your knowledge on market trading (and your sharing of this knowledge) is very much appreciated by many of us on this board.
Can I attempt to push you a little further though and ask if you're able to elaborate on your thoughts regarding the trading here in Harl that you feel is bizarre and a little maybe fishy too ? If you're able to maybe enlighten us as to what the potential reasons might be for these trading concerns.
I know you've said previously it could be an II selling down, but surely with the various percentage thresholds being crossed these would be notifiable to the markets. Could it maybe be a steady stream disillusioned PI's selling 25, 50 and 100k amounts ?
If you maybe don't wish to elaborate on your thoughts of what might be going on, do you feel we as shareholders should be concerned about the possible reasons for these trading stats.
Ta again for your ongoing thoughts.
I dont know the cost of the Eduard Toll works Lottie, but I also believe there was quite a bit more work done on it than originally anticipated.
My understanding was that it wasnt scheduled maintenance work being completed but it was very much an emergency job. It was having issues with its thrusters and needed to be dry docked for this work to be completed. There was some steel works also required although I dont know the extent of this. (I'm not sure if you're able to tell us more Lottie).
The bottom line is that if we get ships into dry dock for known work, then there quite often will be other work found to be needed to be done too.
It's like when we leave the car into the mechanics for a simple oil change and the mechanic (after sucking some air in through his teeth and giving a big sigh) says, 'the motor also needs this, this and this too. . . do you want me to do it when it's in the garage here ? '
That's why I don't feel we should ever turn our noses up at oil and filter change work on the ferries. This low margin work brings in other higher margin work with it.
I know the reason for it, but i still find it frustrating with this LSE page that it isn't clear what are actual buys and what are actual sells, when you look at the share trades list.
I done a small top up buy a short time ago of just over 21.5k shares, and it's showing as a 'sell'.
Just me sounding off here this morning, lol.
The final bit i wanted to add after my last post was, would invest more after yesterday ? I said yes to this. . . . . and i did actually do a little top up too today.
As to whether this is a risky investment going forward ? - HELL YES
My opinion though is that the potential at this time is greater than it's ever been, and that reward potential is worth taking the risk for me. I've been in Infa / Harl over 4 years now and i believe we're as close as we've ever been to actually going somewhere positive longer term.
As always though folks, I'd suggest you don't put too much weighting on any particular view/s of any poster here (inc my own), and you only invest what you feel comfortable accepting volatility or loss on.
Good luck everyone .
So Roly, 'TTNY is someone to have a pint and chew the fat with' ? I've just took a mental note for the next open day I'll be bringing a 6 pack of Guinness and a few packets of pork scratchings, lol. Only joking, it was great to meet you and good to put a face to the online name too.
With so many different posters on the board here, and many of us having different levels of knowledge & experience, it's great to have folk like Roly with his knowledge and background sharing his views here.
As to my experience at the Belfast yard yesterday, i feel I have to make comment on the people first. It started with the happy security man with his enthusiastic Belfast welcome of 'how ya doin, wat about ya' ? Next was the lovely chatty lady in reception who is the perfect front of house person welcoming anyone to the yard. . . . Now. I know what you guys are thinking, that being, 'we're not interested in this airy fairy stuff TTNY, just tell us some news' ! I'll get to that, but my point is, from setting foot in the yard and the welcome, to leaving the yard, every single person we had interaction with was a pleasure to deal with. You might ask the relevance of this, but remember, these tours are happening on a regular basis and with existing and NEW customers too ! Every single detail is important, every single experience is important, and I feel H & W delivered a great experience with every single little detail and interaction we had.
What I didn't expect to get from yesterday first ? I didn't expect Arun (CFO), Stevie (GM) or Seena (Head of M&C) who took us around and fielded our questions, was to tell us anything ground breaking that wasn't known to the masses. That was never going to happen. They can't obviously do that, so I've no news to report that folk don't already know (sorry).
What i did expect and hope for from yesterday though was this. I wanted to get a feeling as to how confident or otherwise i could be to leave my investment in the hands of these people going forward. Before i answer this, i need to express I'm not one bit happy as to where the share price is compared to my average buy in price. I also have absolutely no loyalty to H & W to stay invested and would / will get out of this stock immediately (or reduce my holdings at least), if i feel it's the right thing to do for my wallet.
Did i get what i was looking for yesterday ? The answer is YES, YES, YES.
And . . I'm a happier chappy that I'm staying here and WE HAVE A GOOD TEAM IN PLACE to deliver results !
Rather than me posting Arun said this, or Stevie said that, I'm just gonna give yes/no answers on my feelings.
Am i concerned about Islandmagee ? - Absolutely NOT !
Am i excited where this share price could go ? - VERY !
Do Harl NEED something big in the coming months - YES
Am i worried about medium / shorter term cashflow - YES (if a credit facility is announced soon).
Would i invest any more after yesterday ? - YES
Are any of you guys planning on going to this Investors day in Belfast ?
I've returned my email to register for this so fingers crossed I'll be there on the 16th.
Absolutely no idea Jfk9.
I've always said though that IM had a value, even before the ML was issued. When the ML was issued it's value increased.
If there is no judicial review, or the JR doesn't change anything, then the IM value goes up again.
What is it's value ? ? Absolutely no idea again.
If I was JW and thinking of selling, it makes sense to get to wait to after JR situation is over to maximize value.
My personal thoughts are, I'd like IM sold to give the Harl bank account a good boost, with Harl getting the fabrication contract and some sort of ongoing financial interest in the IM site going forward.
With the monies from IM this would take away speculation of future capital raises being needed, take away speculation of the company's financial position and enable us to competitively and credibly compete for bigger contracts.
The company could then focus on what is undoubtedly a massive opportunity in the renewables business.
It's all well an good though with eejits like me saying we should do this, or we should do that, but with no knowledge of the industry I just have to trust that in these uncertain waters that we have the correct crew at the helm.
I'd agree Nobby that any offer, inc a yard bid would be worth considering, however it would need to be a very substantial bid bearing in mind the 'supply and demand' premium for fabrication facilities must have surely increased dramatically with these Scotwind auction results.
Mere mortals like us won't know JW's strongest desire with the direction of the company, but there's no doubting the massive opportunities that Harl have the various sides to the business at present.
JW talks about the 5 key business areas but as i see it, i don't feel we have the ability to fully fund the 3 biggies that are the IM opportunity, to carry out the very substantial opportunities that MOD work will provide and to also meet the demand of this surge in renewables and the fabrication it'll be needing.
Any one of these 3 could be company changing for Harl to go forward, but do we need to consider selling IM to fund the other 2, or indeed sell Methil and Arnish to fund IM and ship building ?
I can see a greater focus by Harl in the future in either only 1 or 2 of these areas, (the 2nd and/or 3rd one funding the other one/two) .
What would my preference be ? I've no idea ! I'm just hoping we have a company leadership that can maximize the financial opportunities that are here, and will make the best decisions for the shareholders going forward.
Oops. I don't think i included the Magnora link in my earlier post. Here ya go now :-
https://www.offshorewindscotland.org.uk/media/1590/deepwind-webinar-presentation-23-09.pdf
1. Vattenfall - 11 years ago H & W worked them on the Ormonde offshore wind farm.
https://www.harland-wolff.com/portfolio/ormonde-offshore-wind-farm/
2. Deme - 2018 - H & W fabricated 20 suction buckets for the Borkum Riffgrund 2 Offshore Wind Farm which is located in the North Sea.
https://www.deme-group.com/projects/borkum
3. Scottish Power Renewables - the SPR website states 'SPR has a long-standing foundation in Northern Ireland, and currently operate five onshore windfarms in Northern Ireland, with key interests in Belfast Harbour and with Harland and Wolff which were used to assist in the build out of some of our offshore wind portfolio'
https://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/east_anglia_supply_chain_development.aspx
(24 jackets supplied by H & W - *click on 'foundation & Pile supply' for info.
https://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/rigged_hill_repowering.aspx
https://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/corkey_repowering.aspx
The Belfast Harbour website also details the link with SPR when their D1 terminal was used for wind turbine assembly file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/37833%20BHC%20off%20shore%20wind%20report%20Web%20(1).pdf
4. Northland Power - NP worked with Universal Foundation and utilised the services of H & W for supply of foundation buckets.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2018/01/05/debu-debut-for-universal-foundations-mono-buckets/
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/deutsche-bucht-offshore-wind-farm/#
5. Magnora - In the below link for the 'Magnora Offshore Wind Supply Chain Webinar', part of the agenda refers to the Western Isles Council: and “The Arnish Energy Hub”. H & W get a mention in this to the Arnish Fabrication yard.
Again, these links above aren't exhaustive, and there are many more for folk interested in Googling research on these. I just wanted to highlight that H & W has previously dealt with many of these winning bidders.
It's also been good to see that the recent major renewables events have all been attended by H & W key personnel, these events being attended by most of these winning bidders too. Delegate lists attached below if anyone's interested in this info.
https://events.renewableuk.com/onshore21
https://windeurope.org/ElectricCity2021/files/registration/EC2021-Attendees-List.pdf?v=202111
https://events.renewableuk.com/images/Images/2021/GOW21/Global_2021_Delegate_List.pdf
One final note and please don't call me a voyeur or stalker, lol, but if you go to LinkedIn and look at JW's contacts. Wowwww. These are mighty impressive. JW is pals with many of the top folks in each of these winning bid companies. He certainly seems to know and be interacting with the main movers and shakers.
Hopefully some of these links might prove fruitful going forward.
Good find OT, and a very interesting and informative read. Thanks for sharing this.
Way back in September I put a post on asking folk to predict the Harl share price for the close of business on 24th of December. The share price back then was around 18ish. Although it's been quite a bit higher since then, it's also been lower too.
The bottom line is that it's more or less unchanged since then. So the the winner of the comp is Razorshultz (with 15p) and 2nd place is Loosegoose (with 25p). Well done you guys. . . Although I wish someone else won with a higher prediction, lol.
Fingers crossed for 2022 that some of the higher predictions come true.
Can I just say happy Christmas to everyone here, and may 2022 have your plates always full, your cups overflowing and your hearts beating heartily.
I could maybe claim Si that it was an auto correct I just didnt notice, then again it could be that I'm a numb-nut that isn't au fait with these smile things you talk about.
Either way, I cant deny that I fall into the 'dull as' category when I'm sitting awake writing this, lol.
Hopefully the news from the meeting later this morning doesn't fall into the same dull as category, and we all might get some good news to put a simile on our faces. :-)