Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Good morning all
Thanks for an interesting weekend of reading. I'm with you from this morning, although my 100,203 initial purchase was below the mid so marked as red. Will add further through the days and weeks ahead.
Keep up the good research and GLA
Monty - MM does take outside help and advice, the problem is it's only from people who agree with him.
For me, it's not a good thing it's an all cash offer. There's so much more value to be had with DARK.
A cash and share offer (50/50) from a US Cyber Company would be far better value without even considering an uplift in the offer price.
I'm not sure another bidder will emerge, but I think it's far from a slam dunk that the existing IIs will accept 620. If they're British based IIs then they too will be subject to any loss on ER.
14.4% is a very very low place to start from when you need 75% support.
It wouldn't surprise me if TB simply had to raise their bid because shareholders won't accept 620.
If anyones interested, current forecast for USD GBP exchange rate for the end of the year
Month / Low Forecast / High Forecast
October 1.289-1.329
November 1.309-1.354
December 1.334-1.388
Current is 1.25, so there's a pretty solid 5% wrong-side risk there. 8% is obviously taking the high side forecast for rate and the longer time frame.
A bit like your big money premier league transfer. Player (Poppy) might want to go to Liverpool (TB) but if Man City come in a bid more then Liverpool will either need to match the bid or lose out. It doesn't much matter what Poppy wants, the shareholders won't accept 620 if an offer lands on the table of 675, particularly if 620 looks like it might only be worth 580 in 6 months.
Why the hell are they allowed to make a bid for a British Co, with British HQ, listed in Britain, in f*****g USD anyway?
there may or may not be other bids
the exchange rate may move in our favour or against (why the hell are they accepting a bid in usd anyway?)
the shareholders may vote for or against it.
the above are facts, ie, wait and see.
most of what i'm reading below is opinion (or agenda) stated as fact. ie, *******s.
As I inferred below, I'm really afraid that their strategy is to make 250 look really attractive by somehow keeping the SP down until the close of tender, then suddenly allocating another 10-20million to it and wiping out the RI base in one swoop. I also think all the major IIs are unofficially in on it and won't tender.
Please, someone who isn't such a conspiracy theorist as me explain to me why this won't / can't happen.
I would genuinelly like to tender 20% and get 20%. I don't want to have to tender 100% in the hope of getting 20% and then lose the lot for a paltry 250.
LOL, TB!!! I've got Darktrace on the brain today, obviously I mean MT.
I'd never question MT's motives, in fact his contribution to the past, present and future success is immeasurable.
...and before someone jumps on me, I'm not saying there will be further offers. I think waiting for my 620 rather than taking 600-610 now is a fair offset for a potential much bigger gain - but I don't claim to know anything, I just form a strategy and let it play out.
We don't know what other parties might or might have been in discussions when TB were interested before, or since.
The fact that nobody else made a firm bid then is irrelevant - that was then and this is now. Things change in 12-18 months. The US market certainly has. I bought Crowdstrike at $109 at a similar time to the original TB interest and sold 80% of my holding recently at over $300. What is Darktrace worth over there now?
BBB - It would be insane for NC to trade them as you say, he would have to notify. Simply lending them out though, that's another matter... Lots of IIs do it, get a 'short' fee in the immediate term with a 'long' gain strategy in the medium plus term.
Also, I'd never questions TB's motives, maybe he doesn't want to move the market. Maybe he just wants more shares, and under 250 who can blame him.
HKK - No point you buying back at 601 though, not enough gain to 620. As Sheltie says there's not a chance of another bid coming in. The End, never, FACT, or whatever else you want to write at the end of a sentence to make the opinion sound convincing. Bit like walking away as you have the last word in a debate/arguement with the other half, a weak attempt at not having to entertain their views when you've got no facts to back up your own.
I'll hold thanks.
I agree, that'll be the fear. Buying at 2.12 (prob 2.14 after costs) would seem to give a 15% return which isn't bad for a couple of months of tied up funds.
But if you only get to tender 25% and aren't PRTC 'believer'....
Dallo
'Having been invested here for nearly 6 years now, I am getting thoroughly disappointed at the continuing share price underperformance and I am tempted to flog my total holding in the Tender and move on.'
I strongly suspect that's the response they're hoping for...
If I didn't know better (sorry, just split my sides laughing) I might think that the share price was being 'held down' to make the 250 tender offer more appealing to us little people. After all, every time the SP makes a bid for freedom it gets whacked on the head and dragged back to 210. I guess it's the only way they can make 250 look attractive.
I'll know that's the case when they tell us after tender close at 250 that it was oversubscribed and that they've now allocated another 10 or 20million to it to offload a lot more than the original 14% suggested.
I'm such a cynic...
Prof - Why would it be bad for PIs in your view though?
Lending - That's pretty much my understanding but thanks for doing the legwork and confirming.
On one hand 75% isn't a high bar, particularly with so may IIs in from the IPO at 250... but on the other hand only 14.4% irrevocable is a pretty low starting point. They've got a bit of work to do and every day that takes gives other bidders more opportunity.
I don't believe any new bidder would be bad news for PIs. The floor is 620.
Unless The Professor knows something I don't of course but as he's not a regular DARK contributor (or investor probably) I suspect it was a bit random, although I'd be happy to hear him expand on his statement.
26milllion traded today, or 3.7% of shares issued.
That's a fair percentage of the RI / free float, but a significant proportion of that sector does tend to think in the very short term. Ie, emotion and fear over calm assessment and strategy.
It's a tried and tested model. Buy low in the UK, run it privately for 2 or 3 years and then re-list in the US. They'll probably triple their money.
I don't think RIs have any hope of stopping this but if you've sold hoping the sale will fall over and you can then buy back cheaper you can forget it.
This is a one way bet now. You hold or buy ay 608 and either get your stake money +2-3% in 3-6 months or you get a much better return if another Company enters the bidding. That's why certain types of Investor jump in after the initial furore of the takeover announcement has died down.