Member Info for theoryman

Remaining Capex to get to 55k kbopd, not all to be spent in current financial year, is $40 to 45 million net, which is $25 million more than I had pencilled in. It hasn’t been easy keeping on top of all the numbers given the difficulties with the stopping, standstill and restarts of the project.

What needs keeping an eye on now is how much confidence the market places in the revenue earned by production actually being returned to the company by the KRG. From the outside it would make zero sense to expand if the company has any concerns about future missed payments. The issue it be considered is that the KRG has never stuck to any previous payment schedules, why should it be different this time?

Fb, did you specifically ask about a Bed & SIPP transfer of those GKP shares?

Their site says, “If you hold stock within an ISA you may be able to transfer that into the HL SIPP via a process we call Bed & SIPP. This involves us selling the investment and repurchasing it straightaway within the HL SIPP. This should also be eligible for tax relief but once the Bed & SIPP takes place it cannot be reversed and the ISA status is lost permanently.”

Two key things, may be able and straightaway - probably worth getting back to them for clarification.

Problem with those bye-laws, supposedly updated in 2019 are they contain information that is no longer true I.e. 900 million $0.01 shares listed on AIM ;)

What we need is someone who really knows this stuff inside out to give their opinion on which trumps which, London Stock Exchange Listing or Bermuda Regs?

What are the rules that must be followed, as opposed to what are the guidelines that the company has chosen to follow, as opposed to the guidelines they hopefully should be following?

g79, thanks for that, first sentence seems a good summary of what it means to you.

When it comes to your view of traders I totally disagree :) I have been one for many years and that does not reflect how I think at all.

It takes two to trade, one is hoping to buy low and sell high, the other wants to sell high and maybe buy back later at a lower price. It’s nothing personal like taking shares off someone. In its simplest terms it’s two different interpretations of the same set of info, sometimes though one is better informed than the other.

g79, surreyscot used the word genuine where it would never occur to me to do so. Now you refer to Genuines , seems like I am missing a piece of the historical puzzle here.

Serious question - what are the characteristics of a Genuine?

surreyscot, why do you put the adjective “genuine” into the term genuine LT investors?

Isn’t it a binary state, you are either a LT investor or you are not? Someone who pretends to be one but isn’t falls into the latter group, so the “genuine” is superfluous.

As for Einstein, I hope he would have looked at the previous examples of alleged troll driven “they are working for those after your shares” being posted in its various forms and what was happening to the share price - all the way down from >460 p to <1p.

When it comes to 100% positivity or negativity, both sets of posts should be challenged with equal fervour. When one poster took an extract from the abstract of one of the Chines reports, edited out the negative bit and then posted the doctored version; it was very positive - fake but positive. When I pointed out what he had done, you didn’t withdraw your support for him as a positive poster which did surprise me.

mM1, thanks for that, plus didn’t know about that date, maybe it will all be over by then?

If not I’ll have a think about where I am going to post charts and analysis - maybe not as detailed after golf, visiting Cyprus, visiting friends and family in UK...

No problem, easier to enjoy the outcomes when we keep getting the preferred one :)

Depends on what happens tomorrow with the price action in terms of how much of an update I’ll do over the weekend.

Will probably create a couple of new threads where I will show how to create a couple of simple spreadsheets.

One to calculate the net monthly export payment and the other the debt repayment allowing for known days in a particular month, a range of average PoO and a range of production.

Then add a couple of screenshots to allow for checking that formulae are OK.

Edit for clarification.

The move up from previous rock solid support, both short and previous long term Dec 2018 was circa 165p

Hi, short term, the support is at circa 181p and resistance is at 199p.

The move up from previous rock solid support, both short and long term was circa 165p

So from there the move up to 199 is 34p.

Using that as a measure, 181+34 =215p would acceptable with 181 + 1.62*34 = 235p being cause for opening yet another bottle of Lidl’s finest Malbec.

What if 181p goes before 199p ? Different answer for different people :)

nufc9, the shares are only “missing” if someone has tried to locate them and can’t - I don’t know how serious these attempts have been to locate them.

Orient Capital, amongst others, will do a search, maybe worth having a look at their website.

Last time I looked, it read to me as the deeper you want them to go the more it will cost.

Genel announced their payments but can’t find where HKN report theirs, maybe they don’t.

On one level there should be relief that these payments to the IOCs have finally arrived, although obviously in breach of the 15 day deadline set up last March.

Seems strange to me that it has happened this month. Jan 2021 was the first month in ages with PoO above the $50 level. Feb is known to be even better at above $62 and for March so far it is above $66. The pressure on them being able to pay the IOCs should be getting less not more IMO.

So the best we can hope for is the next payments by the end of the month, the worst that there is further slippage and late payments become missed ones.

Think I would draw the line at setting up a spreadsheet to calculate the expected repayments of the missed debt repayments :)

ShaMaran & DNO both announced today, can’t find one for Genel or HKN (Texas).

So far in terms of % debt repaid, looks like GKP has got the best deal.

sp2, the average price for Brent is known for Feb but the production isn’t but the debt repayment figure is much more heavily geared to Brent via (Brent-50) than production so $6 million is a very reasonable value for the estimate.

The problem with moving on and projecting too far is that gearing caused by (Brent -50).

The RNS seems to read like the BOD want more than 50c in the $ of the revenue from the whole field production from (Brent-50).

Don’t know if any of the other IOCs have been paid for January yet, if they haven’t then the deep seated financial problems within the KRG might well be still in play.

Suppose the repayment agreement remains the same, as does production and PoO at this month’s average so far circa $64.9 and the payments get back to by end of month; then by end of April there will be circa $17 million of the $73 million repaid.

Add in a bit of loose change and they’ve got the $20 million needed to kick on to 55k bopd and I can re-reset that particular spreadsheet.

Edit, you are correct, I had reset production to 55k to answer a query from someone in a what if scenario.

I get $18.8 million export net.

Assuming 44.4K bopd for 28 days av Brent $62.3

Export net $23.3 million

Debt repayment net $6.1 million.

Will need to double check later!

Just reset the spreadsheet to reflect gross field production, outcome is $2.58 million, so rounds to the RNS $2.6 million, did not see that coming and it’s a good news surprise.

WOW! Seems the arrears payment is based on gross production and as opposed to the working barrels mentioned in one of the other proposed - will lead to a much faster period, about twice as quick :)

The standard monthly payment was within my plus or minus $0.1 million - so no surprise there.

BB, that might be true for one of the companies who have been on the receiving end of these breaches of contract but all of them?