Member Info for theoryman

Anyone know what price per share the bond holders paid during the restructuring, always assumed it was 0.8314p , the same as in the Open Offer to the then existing shareholder?

Assuming it was for the moment, that became 83p during the consolidation.

Each of those shares has had just over 33p of dividends and almost 100p of capital growth as of Close last night - roughly 133p of Total Return.

Same goes for anyone who participated in the basic open offer, or took up the unwanted shares or became share owners just after (this last group will have less capital growth.)

JP2000, the Cost Pool became mainly a Cash Pool as a result of the DFE.

What needs looking at is how long it is before that Cash has all been returned to the company via the Cost Oil part of the revenue.

Add in the R factor, the extra costs of getting to 55k and the lower one of maintaining it etc., IMHO there is no way you get to even close to 5 years before PSC begins to bite.

OK the PO route delivers more but then there is the hefty % reduction GKP loses as the main contractor for Capacity Building.

Shaikan is a complex field according to the MNR, how complex?

Which organisations are capable of dealing with those complexities in moving from 55k to 75k to 110kbopd? The more complex the issues the fewer people there are who can deal with them effectively.

How many of those are willing to work within the constraints outlined by the new guy at the MNR?

What sort of rate of return would they want to justify dealing with the uncertainties raised by the complexities?

What if the last two points mean there are no takers? There is a stand off resulting from his vision and their commercial needs.

What if there is finally only one taker and they get a very cheeky offer accepted?

Best outcome is loads of candidates, all willing to work in an approved manner and a bidding war breaks out; in what just happens to coincide with a risk off environment.

Fat finger,
On that same slide, the company on the morning of Sept 2nd…

@Putup, 43.3kbopd from slide 5 of the HYR presentation.

Remember that in some months the MNR take payment in kind from the main contractor’s share, as listed in total in the yearly RNS re payments to government arising from the inner workings of the PSC.

Had a lightbulb moment about the invoice and 60 days, maybe I have been very unfair about them possibly the missing the deadline.

On that same slide, the company on the morning of Sept 3rd could not give a figure for the average bopd for the whole month of August, just what was calculated at some time DURING the 31st.

So if there is always a delay before audited figures can be released, how about the following?

There is no way the invoice could be with the MNR during their office hours until Sunday July 4th. Counting from there they made the deadline allowing for clearing and producing the RNS.

First time I haven’t needed the give or take 0.1 in both my figures from the spreadsheet.

By getting the RNS today, it is very difficult to prove from the outside that they missed the payment deadline - so giving them the benefit of the doubt, new PB of FOUR on time payments in a row.

Allowing for capital adjustment for two divs, now getting very close to getting above 202.5p

L99, first of all welcome and then a couple of points where I believe you might need to delve a bit deeper.

Firstly, using Dividend yield could well be a metric used elsewhere but maybe an idea to use Total Return yield with a share with a history like GKP.

At one stage after reaching the high at just over 200p, there were two consecutive dividends totalling nearly 17p BUT not only was there a balancing 17p ex-div drop giving a zero effective % return, there was an extra substantial capital loss as it dropped to 140p.

Just in case you think that is hindsight posting, have a look at my history, I chose the worst possible time to re-invest both dividends!
After yesterday the outcome doesn’t look too shabby at all but believe me the strategy was less than optimal.

Secondly, there is another of my posts from a few months back titled something along the lines of “Why is GKP such a cash cow?”

Like you I noticed the cash was building up a rate that was worthy of investigation - my conclusion was that it is a side-effect of the DFE and as such could be time limited.

“Imminent” net payment to GKP on now confirmed 43.3kbopd production for June should be in $ millions., 24.8 for export and 4.7 for debt arrears, give or take the odd 0.1. :)

34a, if you scroll down and down and down you will eventually reach the section where they outline potential hazards and refer to associated risks.

The move from 30 days to 60 days is seen as a minor impairment.

As far as I can see there is no reference to the consequences of 60 becoming 90 then 120….

Also I can’t see a reference to the consequences of one missed payment being the start of a whole string, last time it was four months.

Given that they only have one customer, and one who it is probably best not to annoy, then not going public with those concerns could well be seen as being prudent.

At the moment the market doesn’t seem bothered, so while I share your concerns at one level, they get trumped by the reaction to the RNS as a whole - with the emphasis on the “At the moment”.

Sequence is transfer, clear and only then RNS.

If the money arrived last night then it would still be within the time slot allowed under the latest payment agreement.

In that case it could still get cleared early enough today for an RNS later on, the last three have been mid-session rather than at 07:00.

If there is nothing by Friday then then have missed the deadline after setting a PB of sticking to a payment agreement for THREE consecutive months.

Draw your own conclusions as to why that has happened. My possible top two are they are stoney broke and the IOCs are way down the list for payment or it’s a punishment because GENEL went public about their differences.

Nobull, have just read your post containing, “ but then you have the problem of knowing which times charts are right.”

Many years ago I was involved in a conversation where the other guy mentioned that a candle on a chart was just a container into which you pour data, you lose most of the detail and are just left with the OHLC values, a shape and a colour.

A sequence of those candles produces a visual pattern but think of just how much data is unused.

I reversed the thinking and said what if on standard time settings there was no pattern but if you chose say 13 minutes as opposed to 15 mins then there was - same data just parcelled up differently.

So I already knew which patterns suited my style, all I did was set up software to look for them on different time settings.

Out of interest, yes the times did vary from day to day, even within days and from instrument to instrument.

Prime numbers seemed to occur more frequently than expected! Had an email from someone who I shared the idea with, “Gold on 23 min keeps delivering, kerching!”

What did surprise me at the time but wouldn’t do now, is how many people thought using anything other than standard fixed times on charts was a stupid idea.

Firstly I believe there is a distinct difference between trolling and questioning the rationale of those posters who post nothing but positive interpretations of information.

Secondly we are all basing our beliefs about this company - or any other complex issue - on our own flawed understanding of incomplete information. The last thing you want to do is only read the views of those people who agree with you.

kaaran, the dividend payments need to be taken into account but when I looked at the same issue in the past, the PoO or and figure derived from it did not seem to be a long term driver of share price.

If a short term pattern did appear, then it was soon swamped by another major issue, of which there seem to be a never ending stream.

At the moment the sector it belongs to is out of favour, add in the % drop as a result of the dividends and GKP ain’t doing too badly.

kaaran, you didn’t specify the time period over which you want to do the regression :)

Over a 3 year period you win. Over a 3 month period you win. What about over the last 12 months?

Much better mathematically IMO to use (Brent-21), since that is the figure that plays a part in driving the revenue

For the sake of completeness, can anyone outline anything specific about the Genel RNS which is positive for GKP?

cluelesstim, as you say DYOR. The only company I am aware of who took the KRG to Arbitration was DANA and look what happened there and how they have been treated since - mind you they are the major suppliers for the Gas to Electric power stations and condensate to raise the API of the Kurdish blend.

Again, I believe the original PSCs contain a clause that allows the IOCs to sell their own share of the oil once it has reached the surface- difficult to put into action when the oil goes into a pipeline as a blend.

If it looks like the KRG are flexing their muscles then IMO it will be poor strategy for each IOC to wait to get picked off one by one. A class action might turn out to be a suicide mission but at least I’d feel they died fighting.

From the Genel half year results.

“The Company remains excited by the potential that Bina Bawi presents, with development of the asset having the ability to create material value for both Genel and the KRG. The size of the resource base makes it a strategically important project that could make a significant difference to the region and its energy mix. It has, however, proved difficult to engage the KRG under the PSC in order to obtain the necessary approvals to proceed and every effort has been, and is being, made to obtain these approvals so that the project can be progressed in the near-term.”

Hard to work out if this is symptomatic of the MNR in general under the new team or a specific issue relating to the company, the MNR and the development a gas resource.

Anyway, talks to see if there are any accidental misunderstandings and then if not, off to court.

Would love to see DNO hit a similar problem, then we might get co-ordinated action from the IOCs to deal with the KRG over their debt repayment schedule without interest!

Nobull had to laugh at the reference to probability based analysis amongst the many others. The quality of the data from the daily price action is abysmal at the moment. On some days three, if not four, of the OHLC values arise from questionable trades. The resulting candlestick patterns etc. are therefore nigh on, if not completely, meaningless - and that’s if you believe that sometimes they do have meaning.

The August mean for the PoO is still over $70, so at even reasonable production levels GKP is still a fully functioning cash cow but it is in an unloved sector.

In IMO it’s a risk off environment at the moment and there are too many potential problems that might arise as far as new investors are concerned.

To kick start another uptrend will need a significant positive company statement or a sector boosting one - preferably both.

More MMA than MM, pumpers versus shorters, open up with 80% CoS without saying which one it is, get countered by no cash and need for placing.

Anyone else looking at the Fib extensions, that’s Fibonacci as opposed to lying?

Got very stretched, pull-back arrived, watch for support zones and lack of overlap, very interesting example IMO.

I see this as being a risked 4 stage investment and we are still in stage 1, LOL.

A, have you thought about asking them rather than us?