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Morning All,
It's good to have differing views. I think we're all (some notable exceptions!) sensible enough to know the blatant ramps and de-ramps, but then it's good to have some disagreement on the centre-positive and centre-negative viewpoints. That's healthy debate.
We all know that IM and funding are the immediate hurdles. I tend to think that a negative outcome for IM is largely built in, but they'll be an unavoidable drop if the outcome isn't in our favour. I'll reiterate at this point, even a negative outcome is largely how the decision was made, not the actual decision itself. It'll be a delay tactic. IM WILL happen, it's a question of when and in what format, and taken forward by who.
Funding, all pointing towards a positive outcome, but I too believe that we are not in a strong position to negotiate at this point in time. Interest rates have risen hugely, so all debt is considerably more expensive than it was 12 months ago. IM would put us in a much better position. May even be used for asset finance rather than just revolving facility. The £77m investment by Nav may also open up asset funding too.
FSS is great, but for me, project wise I'm more interested in seeing the continued ramping up of everyday projects- the £5-10m's that will form the backbone of the company aside from the lumpy glamorous FSS contracts.
My view is unchanged, it's risky and bumpy in the short term, medium term good, long term potentially fantastic. I'm not willing to put more cash in at this point, but have this morning added a sizeable chunk of my SIPP to H&W. At 35, I'm confident that a SIPP is good, and potentially lucrative, place to invest in H&W- not having the benefit of work and life getting in the way of trading more actively day to day and week to week.
Have a good day all.
TheEast
Have to agree Broomtree. Even by DF's standards this was a good one. Nearly spat my coffee out.
With IM, best to remember even if is a negative outcome for us, it only relates to the way the decision was made not the decision itself.
It successful, it'll be nothing more than a delay tactic. IM will happen, just a matter of when.
TheEast
Morning All,
Haven't caught up for a couple of days, good bit of reading from the past 48hrs. Farting Dog really has lost the plot.
Sad really, people who troll like this usually do so as their lives are fairly empty of meaningful purpose, whereas I suspect most useful posters on here do have things to be getting with rather than being able to post drivel every minute of the day.
Anyway, we're only a couple of weeks away from reaching the halfway point of Q1, so financing news is hopefully not far off now. IM close. Investor presentation on LSE days away. Next 3 months will be very interesting to watch.
Thanks for those who made the time to attend the investor event and update us too.
Those interested in Hydrogen more generally, worth looking at the 'UK Hydrogen Valley', not directly relevant for us, but does show the ambition and potential of Hydrogen- sure this proposal at some point would look to interlink into the island of Ireland.
Have a good day all.
TheEast
Every day is an add day for you DF...
In terms of the investor event, did strike me that it was announced with quite short notice, so am pondering whether it is linked to an update to the financing. What we do know since the refinancing deal was announced is borrowing has got more expensive, so am going to be interested to see what sort of deal we get. May drag on future profitability compared to previous forecasts.
As for the comments yesterday on cash calls, I've always been balanced on that- almost certainly we will at some point, it's timing for me.
Hopefully we get some RNS's soon on the £5m+ contracts we need to recruit for. There has been a lack of decent contract wins which is where I'd like to see more news dripping in from, to underpin our revenues pre FSS.
Happy New financial year
TheEast
Hi All,
At least this day has arrived. Terrible outcome for all LTHs and mediums, but I guess something is better than nothing.
In my wilful neglect, I sold a fair chunk of what I had left to pay for some dental work less than a week before the release of the RNS, so I shot myself in the foot in spectacular fashion. At least I travelled to Poland rather than UK prices as would have sold a lot more..!
Sad way for this chapter to end. I myself can't see too many people hanging around to see what scheme RY comes up with next to see himself through to retirement. I doubt I'll be doing it. More chance of getting a return going all in on red or black.
Cheers
TheEast
Jono is also probably being pragmatic that the CFO adding just under £10k of shares, isn't going to send this flying, not upwards at least. Horizontal for now by the looks of things
Being played only goes so far.
Has to be an overhang concern on the completion (or terms) of the refinancing for me. Delayed now till early Q2.
Future is bright, will look more certain in 6 months and sure we'll be on the upward projector by then
Indeed!!
Nice to have an update and clarification.
But for me the interesting bit is, 'whilst contract discussions and negotiations advance for another large project'. Fingers crossed this comes to fruition!
Cheers
TheEast
I wonder if the BOD ever pushed the sale of the project in China. Might have been a relatively easy way around the sanctions if the project was just sold to a Chinese entity.
Might be looking at it simplistically, granted!!
Morning All,
Haven't checked in for a long time here and have been trying to keep optimistic the banking gets sorted.
My simple mind says there must be a solution. MD's point about Red Bull still being sold in Russia would sit alongside many other western brands still being sold in the country, and money must be being repatriated in some way.
I won't confess to being familiar with the detail of the sanctions but with brands operating, gut says there must be some way of overcoming the banking issue.
What I don't like is the radio silence from the BOD. Appreciate its the latest in a long line of poor comms, but at this juncture, even an update saying situation is as was, would be appreciated.
Anyone have a guess of when this saga will come to an end one way or another?
TheEast
Consuela, Running,
Some valid points, some not so. I actually work for a BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) developer so know them well.
There is actually a pipeline of around 170GW of storage planned for the UK against approximately 2GW already having been installed, and growing practically weekly. Its a hugely bouyant and expanding sector with a huge amount of money pouring in from international funds, including H&W's old friends, Gresham House who are very active in the sector.
The main factor holding back swift deployment in the UK is National Grid who are battling with outdated and insufficient infrastructure. There isn't the capacity to transfer the electric from where its produced, to where its needed. Constrainment payments have reached record levels recently, where National Grid pay (mainly) wind operators to switch off their turbines as there either isn't the capacity to transfer it, or the demand to use it at the time it is being produced. Grid connection dates vary wildly, a recent example being an anticipated 2024 connection date being pushed out to 2036, not uncommon to hear of these.
Depending on the manufacturers, batteries can last between 8-12yrs but depends on the daily cycles they are put through, and a degradation at the point of replacement typically around 60% of the original installed capacity. They actually lose at least 5% of their capacity just being shipped from China, and need charging ASAP on landing to prevent further degradation.
Li-Ion tech is moving really quickly, and there isn't a single Li-Ion tech. They have moved away from NMC Li-Ion tech which is more prone to thermal runaway, to LFP which is now becoming standard.
Recycling is a problem, Chinese manufacturers do not seem to worry that they are legally required to recycle their products under WEEE reg's...!
All said above, BESS and IM serve different purposes, and both are absolutely required, in short, and confident IM will happen once due process is cleared.
TheEast
Hi Stokey,
To be fair, I've been one who has consistently said I personally think there will be CRs on our growth. I've done this on the basis that a company shouldn't just use a revolving credit facility to grow and if we want to grow into a £500mPA business, it will need a lot of capital to get there. JW has never denied that there will be further CRs when asked, and on the back of our poor revenue and complete lack of of other decent contract news worthy of an RNS (FSS aside of course), then for me personally, this now looks more likely in the shorter term than it has done for some time. As we ramp up in the recruitment in anticipation of FSS, our cash burn is only getting greater, and we shouldn't be overly reliant on the debt facility to fund this.
Worry is that is we drift down as we are, a 15-25% discount will be at an annoyingly low price, albeit if PIs are able to take part, then it reduces the pain a bit.
The hype on here over the past few months has been a little over the top, need to take a step back, appreciate that we have a bright future, but it will be a bumpy and challenging ride on the way to success.
It'll come good, and LTHs will be rewarded.
All IMHO
Cheers
TheEast
Hi All,
It'd be nice to keep a bit of a check in with reality here.
Good news today, absolutely. Positive future, absolutely.
Tempered with...
-limited near term revenues on the back of a disappointing year in terms of turnover
-2024 mentioned as a year for renewable turnover- disappointing on the 1st Feb this isn't more positive for 2023
-possibility/ probability of a raise still here to see us through (IMHO only and happy to disagree with people on this)
I'll stay out of the 300%'ers in a day, 50p by the end of the day'ers and will return once normal service resumes!
Cheers
TheEast
Xenor,
Marked difference is we are an ailing AIM Co, not a FTSE250 or FTSE100 Co as you well know. Likely being years away from turning a profit. Not to mention plenty of big Co's do CR where appropriate.
Debt is expensive, especially at our stage of development. Servicing it will be expensive and a drag on our profits.
So I'll politely disagree with you that debt is next best thing. For me it's a combination and to not be beholden on either or. Interestingly, we are about the price of the last PI issue participation. Nowt wrong with a balanced view.
Best
TheEast
Morning All,
I'm not sure an expectation of a raise is being negative, more pragmatic. I've always assumed they'd be further raises and is a very normal part of a company's growth. It is almost certainly best for shareholders that cash requirements are met from a combination of debt, cash flow and fundraising. For me, I was just getting extremely nervous that it was going to be neccessary at below 5p which would have been a disaster.
The greater risk for me now is that there doesn't seem to have been meaningful progress in winning renewable work which is where we can hope to acheive a meaningful, stable base cash flow, and also further decent wins in the cruise + ferry market. These areas are too quiet for me.
With regards to market cap and share price, my view is that the market is valuing us allowing for the facts we are not winning the mix of work, we are likely hemorrhaging cash each month and we are reliant of a big debt facility to keep us going till we start to recieve cash from the FSS contract. I also believe that IM has been priced in negatively so there could be a good uplift on positive news in May, hopefully.
As an aside, work for me led to a meeting with an HV electrical contractor last week. Interesting that work involving lots of metal are essentially pegged to the LME prices, and will only secure a price if paying upfront for those elements. Some lead in for parts can be up to 24 months for specialist kit so an interesting dilemma for clients on whether to take the risk of volatile prices (could win or lose) against far greater early cash commitmemts. Sure a similar thing is happening with our market areas.
Let's see what JW has to say tomorrow. Cheers.
TheEast
Hi Cricket,
It has moved positively, albeit from a very low point. 300% increase is a good start, and we're not far off our 12 month high.
Risks to the business...
-huge investment needed on an ongoing basis to maintain (let alone upgrade) our footprint (now huge)
-inflation is rampant especially in energy and raw materials which presents a material risk in the short to medium term on costs and profitability, albeit negated till the middle of next year on our existing deals
-geo-political and economic backdrop is very uncertain. Some positives for our business, but let's face it, markets hate recession, wars and general global uncertainty
-we're a minnow trying to break in to a market dominated by 2 massive players, no mean feat but we're doing really well so far
-IM project delayed, and again, uncertainty on timings despite very obvious need. Likely to happen at some point but when and at what time and monetary cost
-increase in overheads at this stage of our journey. We've run before we've walked, and that costs big money to feed through
-expensive financing, albeit recently improved
Lots and lots of positives, and will be an interesting 12 months, that's absolutely certain!!
TheEast
Hi Jabido,
Usually you get a decision pretty quicky as it is more of a write up of proceedings. Always stress with Jr's that it isn't the decision itself that is being brought into question, but the way that the decision was made and if due legal processes have been followed correctly.
Even if successful, it'll just be a case of having to resubmit (hopefully just parts) of the submission, correct consulting periods and scopes etc. The fundamentals shouldn't change in terms of the ultimate decision.
With regards to to the Oz article referencing IM, I won't get too excited by that!
Closed period is a complete nonsense. There will have been ample opportunity over the past 18 months when Director buys could have happened.
I'm peed off at myself for letting heart win over head on this one. And being stubborn in not getting out sooner to the point I'm at the stage I may as well sit out till boom or bust (more likely).
At the end of the day, the BOD are responsible to us as SH's and they completely MIA over a continual disastrous run for the SP. It stinks, and I'd be pleased to see the back of JW at this juncture