Arden comment 213 Oct 2021 13:19
We were hoping that this initial flow testing programme would establish commercial rates from at least one of B-1Z or A-2. The reservoir has turned out to be more complicated, with the requirement now for further analysis and potentially a follow- on flow testing programme. There remains plenty of scope for commercial flow rates to still be achieved, however, and a new a well stimulation on either or both wells could potentially be brought forward in around six months. We expect West Newton and any work programmes related to this to remain an important focus for the market, though potentially increasingly alongside Union Jack’s other assets.
The JV’s further analysis, and, we would expect, further flow testing will also be required in order to define whether West Newton is oil or gas, which this recent programme has not been able to. Alongside flow rates, this is also important for any eventual development.
The resource update also reduces the eventual value potential of West Newton in particular, though if the outlying prospects are eventually pursued this could help make up for it. Though substantial potential remains across Union Jack’s West Newton acreage, we expect the market to take all this news negatively today overall. Nevertheless, we would point out that the shares have already seen downside on the back of the initial West Newton flow testing results, so some of this news is likely to already be in the price.
We have left our forecasts unchanged, but update our model based on these flow test results and the new West Newton resource numbers. This sees our total risked NAV move from 83p to 67p. We do not currently include anything in our NAV for the Ellerby, Spring Hill and Withernsea prospects outlying West Newton.
Conclusion: Union Jack holds a portfolio of onshore UK assets, with work programmes steadily being progressed across these. The company’s West Newton project (16.7%) recently concluded a new drilling and flow testing programme, with analysis now ongoing aimed at designing a well stimulation programme. West Newton resource potential remains significant, and if the asset can be proved up and progressed as envisaged, it would represent a material new development project for onshore UK. More widely, Union Jack is progressing ongoing development activity at its producing Wressle field, where recent well stimulation activity has significantly increased flow rates, helping establish this as an important new producing asset for the company. Union Jack is pursuing the drilling of a side- track from its Biscathorpe-2 well originally drilled in 2019, potentially providing further news flow. The company also continues to make acquisitions, typically larger stakes in existing assets, and there could be more to come here at some stage. Union Jack is currently funded from its end June 2021 cash holding of £4.7m (zero debt) plus the recent £3m placing.