Member Info for teslo

A £12b turnover company looking to maintain and achieve a 5% profit margin long-term but looking to pay a 20p dividend in future years is the exact policy that almost pushed RMG close to the edge in 2018.

I would have liked to see the company show that it can maintain and build the growth in revenue and profit margins post pandemic before it reintroduced a strong dividend policy.

How the market and especially the institutional investors react is all that matters though because that is where any real volume will come from.

Good luck.

Those results are as good as I think it will ever get for RMG, especially with UKPIL generating a profit at least until there is full automation.

RMG's management has been at best incompetent in the past and this is the main reason for the toxic culture within the company and it's good to see that being addressed and rectified.

" We have had to take some really difficult decisions in the past year. Around 2,000 managerial roles have been removed as part of our management restructure. I would like to thank the colleagues who have left for their service to Royal Mail over many years. We have delivered on our commitment to make this change, which is on track to deliver annualised benefits of £130 million, with incremental benefits of £115 million in 2021-22. "

How the market reacts to the results today is of the utmost importance, and we will see how much is already priced in.

A positive reaction that builds and holds throughout the day, followed through with strong volume is what I really want to see today, A muted reaction and / or a strong open that is immediately sold into means institutions are likely selling to private investors with FOMO.

Not sure how relevant this is but I spoke to someone who works as a medical professional today and they're all currently being retested for COVID19 because a new variant has been uncovered in my locality.

That is also a possibility @Prinze

The one thing we will know for certain in a couple of weeks though, is just how effective the vaccine is.

@Prinze you pretty much received your dividend yesterday, in theory you could buy the same amount of shares you sold yesterday at a discount of 17p

I'm out of this @5.05 , not because I don't think it will go higher, more because I see a better return elsewhere.

Good luck to everyone else, I only post when I am actually invested.

A year ago today a 50p rise in the share price would have represented a gain of close to 40%, today it would be less than 10 %.

@Tony's investment strategy since he first posted on this board has proven to be the most effective and in terms of % return more than likely the most rewarding.

The reason why, is not because of what he knows but the questions he asks.

@Micky what is your analysis based on ?

How do you know for certain it will hit £6, did you go back to the future like Michael J Fox ?

Have you got any information, charts, facts or figures that you're able to share, that would help add credibility to your current opinion.

There is every possibility that you may well be correct but what is your opinion actually based upon, other than your original post ?

I have traded/invested in this stock since it's IPO and for me, the events of 2018 are still fresh in my mind.

At the end of 2017 the price was under £4 on the back of on-going union disputes, once these were temporarily resolved the price reached a peak of £6.32 in May 2018. After that it started to slide and then in October 2018 it tanked 40 % in two days after the company issued a profit warning.

The share price is where it is now, not because anything fundamental has changed within the company as a whole but because of the pandemic and the complete paradigm shift that has caused over the last 12 months.

GLS is a phenomenal company but it currently only generate 25-30 % of the turnover, yet it's responsible for over 90 % of the profits. UKPIL by comparison actually does resemble a cowboy outfit and how that performs post-pandemic will determine whether the price reaches it's former highs and beyond or tanks like it did in 2018.

IMO, Q1 and Q2 reporting will be the true test of the share price and the higher it goes prior to that, the greater the market expectations will be when those figures are released, especially from those paying the current market price for the share.

Profit is only profit when it's realised and as Warren Buffett said " Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

As @AB said there will be a levelling point, in 2018 it was £6.32, what it will be in 2021 is anyone's guess really.

The next key resistance levels are around 5.17 and then 5.36 after that it's 6.00.

My strategy is likely very different to others here and I actually prefer trading in and out of this stock rather than sitting on it for investment purposes or dividends.

Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill just got passed and Americans will soon be receiving another $1400, which means all the Robinhood traders will be reloading their accounts and this increases the probability that the DOW will continue to pump in the short-term.

The FTSE is still playing catch-up @6700 and on January 12 pre-open the FTSE looked like it was about to re-test @7000, It's more probable than not that the FTSE will reach those levels again sooner rather than later, especially if the economy re-open goes to plan.

If it does the algorithm trading bots alone will take RMG past £5.

100 % this share will trade over £5 before June results day.

Whilst that maybe true, there are still a number of FTSE 100 companies and sectors that are hugely undervalued in comparison to RMG.

New investors will likely be people chasing dividend income rather than capital growth and that is why the RNS is perfect timing because it now creates additional speculation in the lead up to results about the possibility of a future dividend announcement.

A 15p dividend represents 3% @ £5 a share but 6 % for those who bought in below £2.50 which would likely prevent those existing holders from selling, but it's also unlikely to attract an avalanche of new investors, especially with other undervalued sectors on the verge of recovering when the economy reopens.

A no dividend policy would at this stage spark a sell-off IMO, even though that would actually be the best thing the company could do in the short-term.

Perfect timing.

The price briefly retested 4.88 again, just like it did on the 15th of February.

Now it's just a question of whether they reinstate the dividend or use the money to fund future growth, personally I think they will reinstate the dividend to satisfy the key shareholder, namely DK

I very much doubt that @Mike.

@Wolves like a couple of others previously relied on someone else for their research, and when that person left the board he had to start thinking for himself. If memory serves me correct, @Wolves sold his holding when Rico quit, bought back in on the dip and then sold up again soon after.

Trading is a very different mindset to investing and as the old Wall Street saying goes "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

I tend to agree with onelongrunner, 444 has proven to be solid support in recent weeks, three times the price has touched that level and each time it bounced of it strongly. Volume has dropped of slightly since January, but the trend is still up and the recent broker views remain positive.

DK bought sub £2 and has not sold a single share in fact he added again recently at around @375, and his insight in to the company is far better than a employee who is likely no longer invested.

It's ironic that a person who was one of the main protagonists in talking the price up and a key member of the ramping crew is now talking the price down, especially when the company is in a far stronger position than it was at the end of 2019, when he was talking the price up.

Profits for the year will likely be £500+ million, automation is on the way, the union issues have been resolved, the company has the best network of any other postal service or courier in the industry. The only negative is that if the company does report bumper profits in June and the dividend is reinstated, the Union may kick up a storm and demand another pay rise.

All the key issues that the company had pre-pandemic have essentially been resolved due to the pandemic lasting as long as it has. Had the pandemic only lasted a couple of months as first anticipated the share price would never have gained the momentum it currently has and it's very unlikely it would have attracted a key investor like Daniel Kretínský.

DK, also seems to be in for long-term and once automation is achieved the overpaid unskilled staff will gradually be phased out and unless they get a favourable VR deal. it's most likely they will have to look for a self-employed position at Deliveroo or a zero hour contract with Just Eat, if those companies are still in the business of employing people in 2022-2023.

Having said that, unless the Asian market tanks overnight, the FTSE is looking like it will really pump Monday morning, hopefully taking RMG along for the ride.

Just Eat has dropped 30 % since that article date and even now it's still horrendously over-valued.

Deliveroo will most likely have a very strong IPO and a solid first couple of months similar to Door Dash and then it will likely tank 50 % especially if their is not another wave of the virus and economy re-open goes to plan.

It's already looking like the NASDAQ bubble is starting to burst and reality is beginning to set in, Tesla's market cap has dropped $300 billion since January.

Q1 and Q2 2021 reporting will be the true test of the markets though

The low of the day was 444 which was previously a resistance level, now it's support.

Despite the price dropping from 4.79 to 4.48 in under 15 minutes on open, the fact it bounced of 444.6 and closed above 450 is still a really positive outcome when all things are considered.

To be honest @Shaun I think @4.79 was a phenomenal open and actually a great exit point that many will have taken.