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Interesting video today, but not for what Zaza said, as he stated what many suspected. Taribani is on track to prove up the field and commence production. They have proved from UD2 that dry gas is there, but the frac design failed. What we saw was an unwavering confidence in the current 'success' of the 3 well drill programme (and of course his own investment). I have followed this company now for much longer than I want to, and I am (regrettably) an investor rather than a trader. But for me this is still a binary bet. Not based on the assets, as I'm confident they are there and that we can produce the goods. What this company needs more than anything, is the political theatre around it sorting out. A clear commitment from the Georgian government to support the development of block 12. Oligarchs and the blockers should get on board, step aside or be put in their place. Frontera have high political support, which they wouldn't have if they were a 'fake' outfit. I hate to say it, but patience is the key me thinks.
Frontera has always maintained that their knowledge of Taribani is ahead of UD2 area. If we are looking for near term value creation, then it's going to come from Taribani, and so far that seems on track.
I was thinking that frontera will develop taribani, and the gas complex will be sold. But the speed they are proving the Taribani zones up, seems to me like they are putting a price tag on it.
It was in today's comments from Zaza.
The point I'm trying to make is that every zone they tap into is producing, and so far they have shown that zones 9, (13), 14, 15, 19, (20), 23 and 25 appear to be pay zones that have now or about to flow.
Zaza said the more zones that can be added, the more company value creation. Maybe this is the current plan.
"Current results demonstrate that we have highly productive Eldari B formation, which has been tested first time in Zones 19, 23 and 25 of Niko-1 well and delivered flow rates of 960 bbls/d of light oil and 1 mmscf/d of wet gas."
It's worth not forgetting that the original Niko 1 drill has proven that oil and gas has flowed from 19, 23 and 25. Or at least that's how I read it.
So the drill campaign has allowed frontera prove production now from Zones 9, 13, 14, 15, 19, 23 and 25. UD2 has also shown gas is there and it will flow. "This is a significant milestone for the Company. Successful completion of the three-well drilling campaign in Taribani with very encouraging early test results and further reconfirmation of Middle Miocene aged gas presence in F sands of Mtsare Khevi Gas Complex, brings us closer to becoming a profitable operator with significant growth potential." I recall Zaza comment from the investors meeting, that every zone adds to the valuation of the field. Lets see an updated CPR.
Looking at the positives. It wasn't that long ago that everyone doubted block 12 actually had any oil and gas. But I think now it's clear that it's there in commercial volumes. The deeper we go, the more there is. It seems FRR are taking taribani step by step, reporting on individual zones a stage at a time. Stacking all zones together in each well, it could be each well has the potential to flow 800-1000 bbls. This is significant progress, and now in taribani we are also flowing wet gas, which is a bonus and was never the original target of this drilling campaign. The taribani field alone is worth billions, and this it seems is well on the way to a meaningful updated CPR with booked reserves. UD2 is all about producing dry gas, from an massive gas field that has been identified near to the international pipelines running (by chance?) through block 12. It has not flowed significantly, but we have proved it exists, it has commercial flow rates and its goods quality. So it now needs to be sidetracked in order to get it out. We are leaps ahead of where we were 12 months ago.
Tricky Genuinely thank you for your comments. I don't know enough to be able to add value to this conversation. However for the purpose of accuracy you comment in full that I was responding to was as follows: 'I'm not as certain as some on here that TSTR will not de-list. I haven't seen anybody put up a compelling argument for maintain a listing. On the contrary I think the reasons for de-listing are pretty strong if not immediately then certainly once operations has had 12 months of trouble free production.'
What is the highest price paid by OAM?
I'm guessing that the company would have to have future confidence that they would not need to come back to the market for capital or growth for the roaster or other projects. I'm guessing most people don't want to retain shares if the company were to de-list. If they were to offer a price for the remaining shares, where would shareholders expect this to be priced?
Thank you. I would be interested to hear your views on the compelling reasons you see for the company to de-list sooner or later.
Morning all and some good posters on here. I really like the potential here, great asset, and the current SP is undervalued. However I'm not too sure what the most likely outcome would be if the company did decide to go private. Would shareholders be likely offered a fixed price to sell? Does this have to be considered fair value? What happens if you don't want to sell? I would appriciate any comments from those who have experience from similar situations.
Just catching up on today's RNS, which is in my view is a really positive step. Not only has Zaza continue to deliver on his promises, but he has clearly been in a position to secure good terms with YA as we kick them out of the door. For years they had plagued this share, but last year Zaza took them by the scruff of the neck, and know he has his boot up their ars e! As he said he would. What strikes me is the 10m shares, worth circa £50k? To me it just seems a little out of place. YA could have easily pushed 20% interest on the £2.9m debt. But they accepted 10% and £50k. 10m shares I'm sure does not satisfy their greedy appetite. One thing is sure that Zaza is consistent and delivers. Last Sept. he said he will deliver 4 wells and he has successfully, he said he would see the back of YA and he has. And he has already secured £3m for the next well to be fully funded. I'm not sure how FRR will pan out eventually, but Zaza said we are about to take off big style. So may he's luck continue.
Reuters website now showing an institutional investor is continuing to increase their holding. Latest figure is 684,634,212 million shares now accumulated. At least someone is sharing the confidence of the board.
Let's hope the shorters have now closed their positions.
My hope is on no.3, I can dream. If I was a betting man, we will know the flow rates by or before the 12th June. That's the day when the whole of the EU and industry will be focused on the gas capabilities from the Caspian. If I was Zaza, that's when I would announce them.
Maybe Malcys slip re: Azerbaijan was not so off the mark. 25th Anniversary International Caspian Oil & Gas Conference 30 - 31 May 2018 • Fairmont Baku Apparently SOCAR is snout to sign two NEW MOU's at the conference. Wouldn't it be nice, if a consortium was about to give Georgia support to develop their own energy security.
Happy days here, with financial institutions seeing the potential. This investment had been significantly de-risked since Sept last year. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but I think this company is coiled to multibag. Real tangible success being seen on the ground, and licences going through timely. Not sure what the trigger will be to release the significant value of FRR assets. Maybe booked reserves from Zones 9, 13, 14 and 15. Or maybe the revealing of the secrecy around the gas. Who knows, but I'm hoping a healthy £200-300 mcap is not too far out of reach.
Sorry if it's already been posted... "Economy Minister – Reforms we will carry out in energy sector will lead to full liberalization of market 14:12 25-05-2018 The reforms we will carry out in energy sector will lead to full liberalization of the market,- Vice Prime Minister of Georgia, Minister of Economics and Sustainable Dimitry Kumsishvili said at the opening of the South Caucasus Energy Summit in Tbilisi..." Bring it on, setting the tone for any big players wanting to know the government's intention. I think the US visit this week has gone very well, and energy security has clearly been on the agenda.