Some progress, but the same core issue remains…27 Sep 2024 12:31
It’s all a bit deserted on here these days, but I had a spare few minutes to go through the interims the other day - a summary and some thoughts as follows:
Positives
- Completion of the change programme. Now only a small element of UK legacy remains.
- Successful exits of KYND & Globiva giving positive cash injections.
- Exits from all non-core / legacy markets.
- Individual parts of the business now also free from legacy systems.
- Turkey is performing well despite all the adverse macroeconomic factors. It’s still a small and volatile part of the business, but is currently additive which is a positive.
- Bajaj has signed a contract extension to 2027, albeit at tight margins and with a restricted product set. But this agreement generates a decent positive cash flow.
- Continued new business progress with Blink as well as renewal of existing partnerships.
- Continued reduction in central overheads in line with a reduction in the geographic footprint.
Negatives
- Slower progress than hoped for with Blink, and a continued investment requirement. This business is now carrying a hefty overhead and the EBITDA position is still going the wrong way. It’s not clear when EBITDA break even will be achieved.
- Cash reserves, despite recent injections from KYND and Globiva exits, continue to fall.
- Central management / executive costs are too high for a business of this size. This is both at the base pay and bonus / options level. The CEO and CFO take out £1m pa between them when the business is only making that at an overall EBITDA level. This is not sustainable, nor does it represent shareholder value.
- Question marks over the value extracted from the KYND and Globiva exits. It’s less clear about KYND, but Globiva was certainly showing healthy EBITDA performance.
I’ve not seen the latest Broker note, but it would be interesting to see what their write up consists of, and how optimistic they are for future performance.
As a footnote, the current market cap of c.£13m roughly represents the cash reserves in the business. The lack of liquidity, which has been an issue for some time, does not look likely to be resolved in the short term, and therefore this stock will continue to suffer.
Although Phoenix and Schroders appear to have traded some stock and now hold around 20% each, Ogston’s shareholding hasn’t moved for years. Given the recent allegations against him, his mind is probably on other things, however, this inactivity / uncertainty will make it very difficult for this stock to attract new investors. He’s dogged this company for far too long now, it’s time he woke up to the fact that it’s him who’s playing a large part in holding this business back.