Member Info for tedoby

Just out of interest:-

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1386821144037236737

BTC now $54,250 and rising!

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HODLing in Argo's case isn't just profitable and accretive. It's massively so. It's value to the business can be calculated from a reasonable Return On Investment commensurate with the profitability of the business which in Argo's case is truly exceptional.

When you consider the choice of opting for selling coins to raise finance or raising it through either debt and/or equity then it should really be a no brainer. It really should.

By way of example let's consider what Argo's HODLing might be worth in terms of Market Cap and Share Price in eighteen months or so say by the end of Q2 2022. I'll try to keep the maths simple and the metrics conservative as best I can.

To convert that into MC & SP terms we have to apply a reasonable ROI. The significance of ROI in Argo's business model cannot be overstated. You'll have heard PW refer to it many times even in the same chat. I very much doubt he’ll have less than 50%/annum in his mind considering the production margins Argo is achieving.

The principle here is that the ROI should represent what the business could reasonably expect to receive if the cash was reinvested in growth either organically or an acquisition in the same market.

In the calculation we also need to consider what would be a reasonable price/earnings ratio. Crypto miners enjoy relatively high p/e ratios but they’re not all are the same. The amount of HODLing will be just one influence on the ratio but there will be several. In Argo's case I think 40:1 would be conservative at that stage all things considered.

So I have Argo's HODL at around 2000 coins by then. I also see Bitcoins having a value of $250k/ea.base on a normalised growth rate from here. So Argo's a spot value of Argos HODL asset at that point is $500m.

So the maths for just a contribution to Argos MC for HODLing is $500m x 50% x 40 = $10bn. Yes that's right $10bn and it is entirely separate to the contribution injectected by the mining aspect.

In terms of the SP let's assume the Shares in Issue are 500m and the $/£ currency convertion is 1.4. The maths therefore is $10bn ÷ 500m ÷1.4 giving a contribution to Argos SP of £14.30. So as I say that would be the contribution to ARG's SP from its HODLing by the end of Q2 2022 assuming a reasonable growth rate in all the current metrics.

Perhaps you can appreciate now why PW has a separate Asset Stragegy and Management Plan in Argo and why he's so excited about HODLing and the ROI he's seeing.

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I said HODLing would be a contributing factor and it is. A major one. So what's the full picture at that stage. Afterall that’s what we’re all interested in in seems.

Well I have the new facility inTexas mining at least 5000 coins/annum even taking into account the increased mining difficulty by then and frm that Argo making 65% net profit.

So the maths then using an earnings metric is 5000 x $250k x 65% x 40 ÷ 500m ÷ 1.4 which gives an SP of £46.42. That’s a MC of just over £23bn.

There's vision called for in this guys. But I think the only metric with any doubt in my mind is the p/e ratio. Regardless of fine tuning I'm seeing a 20 bagger from here in as many months with tests expansion plans and in this market. Of course theres riske involved as there is with any investment.

The investment case in investing in miners rather than BTC is a very strong one particularly here in the UK where growth can be shielded from CGT if it's in a shares ISA. I don't believe investors in the US and many other countries have such a tax wrapper unfortunately.

So we should be encouraging PW to HODL as much as he can. Please DYOR too.

Anyway AIMHO

The Prophet you're absolutely correct in my view. To appreciate the timing involved you need look no further than the dates the monthlyOptions end on BTC

This month some Options ended yesterday which was unusual and some will be ending next Friday (30th April). Until about Wednesday next week I think we'll see the bears have the upper hand as things stand. But it looks marginal to me. After that BTC should resume it's upward trend and could possibly find a yet another ATH in the first half of May.

The price movements can be a little disconcerting if you're not familiar with the pattern. But this ebbing and flowing or rinse and repeat movement isn't new. It happens every month almost without exception if you look.

AIMHO

Hill18. -"Until recently" not currently.

Until recently Argo was going through a common end of month cycle of being heavily shorted on the back of Bitcoin going through the same. Shorting starts in earnest about the middle of each month and runs on to around three days or so before the options end. Then the SP's revert. So this month shorting BTC should end about next Wednesday given this months options are due to expire on Friday 30th

What's significant this month is that production rates in China have dropped and the outages of Bitcoin from the exchanges last weekend was huge. Something like $8bn was removed last Sunday alone.!These two things had a short term negative impact on BTC’s price. However the outage issue in China should make quite a difference to ATB's fundamentals to the good side.

If that wasn’t enough this month we wereI still going through the end of seller/s getting out and the hares from the recent placing shares being flipped. If Timis and any others aren’t aren't quite out yet they must be running on fumes by now. The Coinbase launch has been a disruption too I think although it's effect has not been as profound as I first thought.

Then perhaps there's been movement out of BTC due to the Attraction of Altcoins. But again I don't see that as being all that significant and the likes of Dogecoins influence will soon wane.
I see the fundamentals in ARB improving everyday. I also see the trend in BTC continuing upwards albeit with minor disruptions along a bumpy road as it finds its rightful place mainstream.

Very soon ARB will be mining very close to 3000 coins/annum. So with incredible margins and the price of Bitcoin set to continue and output growing what's not to like. Especially so when we enlist on NASDAQ which I’m confident will happen. There will be those that butt against because they don't like change and those that don't really understand it yet. We should accept that. But at best they're only minor issues that will be overcome in time.

Crypto's generally and Bitcoin in particular has become unstoppable now in my view. Mainly because Bitcoin with its uniqueness is firstly value creating and a store of wealth but secondly can also be used as a currency.ARB has become a highly profitable and attractive investment in my view even at these lowly BTC prices we're seeing today of around $50k and as I say the fundamentals are improving before our eyes. When valuing ARB the prices of Bitcoins cannot be cisidered alone especially when other metrics such as production rates and costs are improving daily. Not to mention that ARB’s value is not wholly reliant on Bitcoins prices.

Crypto miners enjoy relatively high price/earnings ratios and p/e ratios of between 30 and 40 is not uncommon. ARB's metrics are made known to the markets on a monthly basis so run a valuation on an earnings metric basis if you'd like to validate what I'm saying.

Do youu have a link goldy please?

The deal incentivises Navier to perform well.

It's accretive too. So it's a great and well thought through deal for shareholders in my view.

I couldn't agree more Adam. This stock is going through a common end of month cycle of being heavily shorted on the back of BTC and related stocks being treated likewise. It seems to last about a week and then the SP's revert.

The only doubt I have is who's behind it. I did think it was F2 or whatever they call themselves but it could also be others such as whales doing it. I still favour the F2 group.

It doesn't matter who it is really. The important thing is it's temporary and should be seen that way.

What's significant to the space is that production rates in China have dropped these last few weeks and the outages of Bitcoin from the exchanges in the last couple of days has been huge. Something like $8bn in value on one of the days! These two things should make quite a difference to ATB's fundamentals to the good side.

If that wasn’t enough I think we're at the end of the seller/s being out and the placing shares ring flipped. If Timis and others aren't quite out just yet they must be running on fumes.

Coinbase has been a disruption too I think although I don't believe it's effect has been as profound as I first thought. Then perhaps there's been movement out of ARB due to the Attraction of Altcoins but again apart from Dogecoin I don't see that as being all that significant.

I see the fundamentals in ARB improving everyday as the trend in BTC continues and production improves. Very soon ARB will be mining very close to 3000 coins/annum annum. So with margins and the price of Bitcoin set to continue and output growing what's not to like.

Selling down here far below true value is not something I'm prepared to succumb to for others gains I'm afraid.

AIMHO

Guys there’s a very apparent direct correlation between BTC & ARB at the moment if you look. More so than usual.

Shorting in the US on ARB is currently quite high and has been for the last few trading days. I imagine the same applies to BTC

BTC comes under a coordinated shorting attack about this time most months and I'm now wondering if it's the same group of shorters who are involved. I think it could well be. They're a group said to be based in China known as "F2".

The shorting seems to go on for a few days before they either move on or go long.

I intend to hold and ride the storm. No point in losing money needlessly as the reversal could happen anytime. It should be strong when it does given the fundamentals here are really good and improving daily.

IMHO

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I posted most of this yesterday but let's take another closer look at what's behind the decline in the SP here and see if we can make some more sense of it.

The historical charts tell us that the flat lining leading to a decline very recently started around March 3rd. Since then there's been approximately 230m shares traded and up until the last three days volume has been relatively very low.

There may be more but let’s consider a few reasons for what's behind it then.Firstly there was an accelerated run up in the Market Cap prior to March 3rd as the SP followed the same trajectory as Bitcoin albeit leveraged to the good side by about 6:1. This led to a period of consolidation and profit taking. As a rough guess I'd say more than 10m shares would have been involved in the top slicing.

Then we had the placing. Not all the shares would have been flipped but I'd say more than 5m would so let's call that 6m. That would put the running total of "abnormal sales'' at 16m.

It's supposition based on reason that we've had at least one institutional seller. Timis had 40m shares and it looks as though he's been selling completely. So rounded let's say we have 60m shares that needed to be churned at this point.

There will have been a natural mix of "the grass is greener elsewhere" and new investors going on. But overall with the attraction of Coinbase and other attractions I'd say that nay have added to the total of say another 5m shares or so bringing it to 65m.

There's been others too such as shorting and panic selling. So for ease of maths let's assume that 70m shares equivalent needed to be churned since March 3rd.

As a rule of thumb Analysts will tell you that a reasonable churn to volume ratio needs to be roughly 1:3.

So on that basis given we've had a total volume of 230m since March 3rd that puts any Sellers in the categories i’ve mentioned out or at the very least running on fumes.

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As aptly put in an excellent post recently. Viz - “the Technicals here have been retracing from a February high of £3.40 to yesterday's low of £1.70 which was just above the 0.618 FIB retrace level. The previous All Time High of £1.30 at the beginning of January saw a retrace to the 0.618 FIB level of £0.60 by the end of January before embarking on the rise to £3.40 later in March.” Indicators and on the second basis are showing the stock is now oversold.

I'm not saying the price won't dip again. There’s a gap around the 140 to150 area that we may need to touch briefly to fill yet. Clearly there’s been shorting going on and that may continue before we get there -https://fintel.io/ss/us/arbkf .

But in my view the majority of them should be coming off once that gap has been filled. I think we’ll see the majority of those involved close and either move on or revert to going long very within a matter of days. There’s huge support at the 100MA and 76.4% FIB line on the charts and from there there’s a huge bounce in prospect. On that basis too I think we can look forward to an early and positive change in the SP’s fall.

I have been buying over the last few trading days and I can assure you I'll continue to buy as many as I can at these levels. The sale prices of this stock are quickly coming to an end and the huge step change of NASDAQ listing aside I think we should be seeing sentiment improving within the next few days.

AIMHO

Great .Thank you!

jayblu48 Did ME sell down to 2.99% in Jan 2020?

Or did you mean 2021 can I ask?

So let's take a closer look at what's behind the recent decline in the SP here and see if we can make some sense of it.

The historical charts tell us that the flat lining leading to the decline very recently started around March 3rd. Since then there's been approximately 210m shares traded and up until the last two days volume has been relatively very low at an average of no more than 7m per trading day

So what's behind it then. Well there was an accelerated run up in the Market Cap prior to March 3rd as the SP followed the same trajectory as Bitcoin albeit leveraged by about 6:1. This led to a period of consolidation and profit taking. As a rough guess I'd say more than 10m shares would have been involved in the top slicing.

Then we had the placing. Not all the shares would have been flipped but I'd say more than 5m would so let's call that 6m. That would put the running total of "abnormal sales'' at 16m.

It's supposition based on reason that we've had at least one institutional seller. Timis had 40m shares and it looks as though he's been selling completely. So rounded let's say we have 60m shares that needed to be churned at this point.

There will have been a natural mix of "the grass is greener elsewhere" and new investors going on. But overall with the attraction of Coinbase and other attractions I'd say that nay have added to the total of say another 5m shares or so bringing it to 65m.

There's been others too such as shorting and panic selling. So for ease of maths let's assume that 70m shares equivalent needed to be churned since March 3rd.

As a rule of thumb Analysts will tell you that a reasonable churn to volume ratio needs to be roughly 1:3.

So on that basis given we've had a total volume of 210m since March 3rd that puts the sellers out or running on fumes.

As aptly put in an excellent post yesterday the Technicals here have been retracing from a February high of £3.40 to yesterday's low of £1.70 which was just above the 0.618 FIB retrace level. The previous All Time High of £1.30 at the beginning of January saw a retrace to the 0.618 FIB level of £0.60 by the end of January before embarking on the rise to £3.40 later in March. Indicators and on the second basis are showing the stock is now oversold.

I'm not saying the price won't dip again today. But I can assure you I'll be buying as many as I can at these levels. The sale prices of this stock are quickly coming to an end and sentiment will be changing in my view.

AIMHO

A great post in my view!

Thanks to you too jayblu.

RC thank you.

I didn't realise but it seems to make sense.

I appreciate your help.

RC or anyone coul you explain this please?

Was timis a 14% shareholder whose been selling out?