Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Its long - nearly 40 mins. A fair bit of what we know already. Final 10 minutes if anything are the most useful. A few notes below for those without 40 mins to listen to the whole thing. (Also summarised points at very bottom)
- Darryn states a good level of interest from other parties in Hong Kong, and there was surprise at how advance the project was. States he has follow-up calls to make with some of those parties
- Re. the Cap-ex, they had to get it released, but there is still going to be some further work re. the heap leach that could reduce the Cap-ex further and they will continue to work on this
- Some Op-ex costs coming down now compared with earlier this year particularly Amm Nitrate, and also diesel
- States they have addressed the points made by the ITE last time round, and feels they will have satisfied the ITE this time
- Current modelling for NPV and IRR is 'pretty positive' compared with the 2019 study. Did not elaborate on this - unclear if he means better than 2019 study or nearly as good; could be interpreted either way
- 'Range of options' for financing which can start after FS release
- Bank/debt finance awaiting FS
- States 'a lot of interest' for cathode offtake, 4 groups interested already, these will (potentially) do further due diligence after the FS, but some of those groups have done some diligence already
- Alternative 'creative options' also on the table for financing at KSK or company level - didn't really elaborate further on this
- No time lines suggested on financing (not unexpected I suppose)
- States DOID still very much interested. States they too are awaiting the FS but expects them to 'close out' with respect to taking their 2 board members
- Asiamet want to tap in to DOID's connections so still see this as a good tie-up
- States DOID's 3 mil investment in November was critical for completing the FS
- Darryn wants to see the SP turn around, and states 'I will be buying more shares' once out of closed period which he states they are currently in
- Early in the podcast he avoids giving a timeline for release of FS however late in the podcast he states he expects to be able to buy shares in April - this to me suggests he expects to release the FS in April
- States has a meeting with TM next week to deliver the information on the FS to him and that they are 'really close to closing out' on the FS
- Long-term target of 60k tonnes of copper per year (or copper equivalent - I wasn't quite sure, but equally wasn't that bothered either - one step at a time...) - but states got to get the first project up and running to release the further potential
For me, the take-home is that they expect to release the FS in April (inferred), interest levels in Hong Kong were good, DOID awaiting FS until committing further but remain an interested party, and modelling for NPV and IRR are currently 'pretty positive' compared with 2019 (but this statement is open to interpretation)
All done
I have seen Tanzanian government statements mentioning BKT, and other Mahenge companies. My worry is that I haven’t seen any statements mentioning Armadale. Either Armadale are too small, too far behind others in the pack to get a mention, or they have fallen out of favour with the Tanz government. I hope it’s not the last one.
Could do with some actual progress on this share. It’s been dead for about two years now.
Come on BOD, you must be able to find some interested parties…
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-signs-45-bln-investment-deal-with-vale-indonesia-huayou-ev-battery-material-2023-03-30/
There is some serious share dumping going on which I would reckon is from quite a significant holder and it has been going on for a few weeks now, and is driving the SP down.
Fortunes can turn around. A decent feasibility study followed by some positive news on licensing or offtake and the SP can be up and running again.
Darryn has alluded to expecting the FS being positive in a few interviews - and it is nearly complete. I don’t think he’s a bullsh*tter like TM so I think he will be true to his word.
Continue to Hold but would like some decent news now…
I know what you mean, but Darryn needs to work on his promotional stuff. He goes down an alley discussing minutiae and by the end you don’t really know what he’s talking about. I do think he has turned Asiamet in to a much more serious mining company though after the years of bluster, false dawns and studies that tuned out to be not fit for purpose. They really need to get this FS stage wrapped up now and push in to financing. What are we, five years behind schedule? Remains a hold for me - I perhaps have six more months of investor patience.
Poor old Darryn McLelland must be wondering what he has to do to get the SP to move up. He probably isn’t fully aware of the reputational damage his Chairman did to the company in the previous five years.
That said, they are finding it hard to catch a break now. Today’s RNS never deserved a fall in share price…
If the SP doesn’t rise here, presumably they will have to sell the company and forget about building the mine themselves? How can you do an equity raise of $100m+ when the company is worth a fraction of that amount?
What does this bit mean?
‘To assist in mitigating these cost increases the Company has reviewed the scope of work under a contract mining scenario and elected to take additional responsibility for certain activities outside of the mining contract scope. A first principles cost estimate for mining operations is being prepared to benchmark cost estimates provided by third parties.‘
When will shareholders get put out of their misery?