Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Appreciate your chart, worth a good study.! Analyst comment.... Mirabaud : "We view this initial sale as very strong, and well ahead (by 20-30pc) of our expectations at this point."
During the 20 months of trial mining, Firestone extracted one million tonnes of ore and got 325,000 carats (32cpht) making US$29m. That worked out at 89US$/carat at a time when prices were higher than they are today, and as a result although obtaining 29m, they made a marginal loss.. FDI's viability for commercial investors, as presented, was US$106 to 108 /carat, with the upside being larger stones, potentially lifting the total to US$157. However and importantly the mine stands financially sound on US$107 per carat based on 32ctpht at running costs of US12 per hundred tonnes, and allowing for a degree of a few percent. This is not break even, this is commercial viability, designed to pay debt and modest dividend. Now the 32 cpht obtained by the crap old trial mine was on main body ore, albeit dotted about a bit, subsequently our tailings and diluted ore picked up 14.4 cpht which i think has already risen to 20cpht, and is set to exceed 32cpht between April and June ( this is my opinion only :o) Therefore our February sales result of US$107 is extremely comforting, i'm so much more relaxed now !.
The diamond sale is taking place this week , and whilst we may hear some news on Friday, i would expect early next week. ?
Target price set to 70p Macquarie http://newsden.net/analysts-price-targets/analysts-at-macquarie-reiterated-firestone-diamonds-lonfdi-as-outperform/392716
Sorry about the last post, a little too much whisky ! Good news on rough diamond prices.... http://www.paulzimnisky.com/roughdiamondindex
I know one or two individuals between threads and have spoken to directors,,,, nonetheless, i am no more privy to information than anyone. i own between 500 and 1m shares as others know..... I believe the share will thrive, but avoiding the issues is useless,, 'to would be' interested party's, it will take three months farther to clarify my points , hold tight, the matters are resovling.!!
Harking back to my earlier post, i would like to know how much of the 14.4cpht acheived is accounted by the lower grade ore being processed and how much is down to 'calibrating' the mine operation. At the moment it appears they don't have a difinitive answer, yet i'm confident they will still successfully redress the deficiancy. The feasibility published by Tavestock in 2013 ? study showed cpht at 31, a significant short-fall on current rates. IT is THIS discrepancy that imo is holding back the share price. - Hopefully these points will be raised in any presentations, or by telephone in die course. Still early days and I'M not too worried.
I would have liked greater clarification on the following: " ....... As is normal during the commissioning phase of a new plant, we have had to modify or change certain operating parameters. The current grade of 14.4 carats per hundred tonnes has been below the initial commissioning estimates and the Company is currently focused on making adjustments and investigating potential causes for the under recovery of lower value finer diamonds. During the commissioning process we will continue mining in the lower quality ore areas until the recoveries have reached required levels, following which we will then move into the better quality ore areas within the main pit, where the higher value diamonds are expected to be recovered. The recovery tailings from the commissioning phase are being stored separately and will be retreated once the commissioning adjustments have been made................" 1) How worrisome is this, ? 2) Revisiting the treated ore means more dilution in the future. 3) However it appears that this related to the smaller diamonds, and recovery of larger stones, apparently successfully will mean the US$ per carat when sold will be higher than anticipated. This of course balances out in the future. Nonetheless, i'm generally content with the report, and the financial 'statement'.
Tree Shake?, Probably just the nervous small investor, the first sale of diamonds will likely not meet the exaggerated expectations of impatient small holders, and thus a drop is then self-fulfilling. On a positive note; moving forwards, the company plan to have two sales a quarter and within this year we should have a far better picture of future mine revenue. I'm not anxious about short term volatility, i just want to read the latest report and see how the overall operation has progressed, the share price will rally eventually provided there are no major issues. IMO i expect a takeover approach, which i consider highly probably within twelve months, the weak GBP would help. - Only my opinion, but no-one 'shot me down' when i said as much after the AGM I will be sticking a load more in my ISA in April.
AGM Review Having attended the AGM, i thought the following points maybe of interest; The Chairman stated that the ramp-up period of 6+ months remains on target, and that despite expected teething problems, they had a splendid November with glitches being overcome. The June end of year target of 350,000+ carats recovered remains unaltered. They have recovered fancy yellow diamonds and whilst no indication of size was mentioned there was confirmation that no breakages occurred. The first diamond sale is expected end of January 2017, possibly early February. When asked privately whether other coloured stones were present i was advised that red and blue have been found, but once again no admission of size,,, maybe tiny or moderate, i don't know. The mine has moved from 12 hour/day to 24hr/day and processing 500 tonnes/hour = 360,000/month. However there are occasions when that is not maintained, due to weather, electrical outages (problem in National Grid substation identified and hopefully fixed), or operational glitches..... Nonetheless these are early days. The Chairman felt the operational risk factors are almost gone. The mine is not processing the optimum ore as there is significant 'tidying-up' of the old mine workings still to do. It will probably be another twelve months before an accurate statement of the mines future revenue ct/tonne can be clearly defined. Still the chairman's 'private' opinion is very encouraging. The second water retention dam is just about complete and there is a possibility of a third dam, water being a valuable commodity. Water currently pooled at the centre of the mine area will not be drained until it can be utilised/saved, and accordingly mining is taking part around the edge of the main target area. Clearly 6 months to full ramp-up is an ambitious target, most start-ups take longer, but did i get the impression that they almost wanted to say they were doing it faster still?, i'm hesitant to say so, but the overall impression was extremely positive, with a pent-up enthusiasm carefully suppressed. "This time next year Rodney, we'll all be Millionaires". !! ?
By the time of the AGM, the company will barely have been in production for two month, and most of that time will have been processing the low grade tailings. 80,000 to 100,000 Tonnes If you want large stones, i would wait for March April May, at the earliest. Don't forget that SB stated the ramp-up will take AT LEAST 6 months. I hope for a problem free start, and for the sp to stay steady. Any large stone recovery would be fabulous.
Quarterly report is due the week starting Monday 17th. So i would humbly disagree with your quiet expectations. Also i'm confident we will get updated pictures showing 'completion'
The following is am aside view of operations at FDI... http://www.financialmail.co.za/moneyinvesting/2016/10/07/firestone-diamonds-bright-future Next info during the week 17th October 23rd Oct. .... I also expect uptodate pictures at that time. Regards
Hi Helium > Got a phone call from Lesotho, nothing that is outside the public domain, ( i think ), nonetheless i was caught off-guard, not expecting the person on the other-end of the telephone to be who he was, more credit to him,. 5 min call, ,,,,, one question i asked 'how much of the low grade stockpile did they have and how long before they started to throughput the main body of ore'.....answer, which i confess is already in the past reports but was comforting to confirm was....... 100,000 tons , October. This harks back to my previous reply to you, where-upon i doubted the throughput and speed to process the low grade ore,,, seems i wasn't wrong after all. The Sept 5th report is correct, and worth studying - and to others reading this reply i would say, revisit the report it is full of info.
???? Hi Superg> Please could you provide the link for your statement as i cannot find anything other than 2014 ? If there was a coup attempt South Africa would not tolerate such a move as was demonstrated in 2014. I would be extremely surprised of a repeat. !
I believe an announcement is imminent, according to Finncap they were 95% complete wef 8th Sept. This has now risen to between 97% and 99% and senior management are onsite in Lesotho. jscapper, imo your top-up was not a moment too soon. Anyone have ideas as to sp upon official opening news? 47p 50p 60p ?
The following extract is taken from their June report, although the Sept report gives a better analysis. I have calculated (roughly) , that if all goes to plan, they should receive an operational profit of circa 50M USD by their June year end, although this does not take into account EBITDA nor the arrangement of shared equity with the Gov of Lesotho nor debt repayment, and unforeseeables ......... Very rough, but still positive. "............................. Production Guidance Following the successful construction progress achieved in Q2 2016, Liqhobong is expected to commence initial production in early Q4 2016. Once initial production has started, Firestone anticipates that the ramp up process to full nameplate capacity, being 3.6 million tonnes per annum or 500 tonnes per hour to recover up to 1 million carats per annum, will take at least six months. During commissioning, ore from mixed low grade stockpiles and diluted ore from the main pit will be processed through the plant. The variability of this ore will influence the recovery of run of mine carats. It is difficult at this stage to predict the average dollar per carat expected for early sales of diamonds. The Company expects to treat between 1.8 and 2.0 Mt of ore during the financial year ending June 2017. Within this period, it is estimated that between 380,000 and 450,000 carats will be produced at Liqhobong. Costs are projected to be in the region of US$12 to US$14 per tonne processed. Diamond Sale Firestone has scheduled its first diamond sale for January 2017, in Antwerp. Thereafter the Company will aim to host two sales per quarter. As mentioned, during the initial stages of commissioning and ramp-up, the plant will be treating lower grade ore and not run of mine production. It is expected that with a purpose built plant and mining larger volumes of kimberlite across the main pit, we will get a better understanding of the occurrence and value of large stones over time. ..............................." It does seem that my optimism over how long it will take to shift the low grade might be misplaced, nonetheless i think 'helium1's' assessment is probably correct.....
Well done for posting the report on the iii web forum, i couldn't as i had no access. The weakness in the Rand ( Lesotho Loti runs on parity to the Rand ) and thus, should as you suggest, help keep services and wages in check. US$:ZAR rates used in the presentation are forecast to rise to 14ZAR/USD. I note that the rate as of 31st July 2014 was 10.7ZAR/USD so even allowing for a recovery, the forward weakness of the rand is 23% lower than original construction forecasts. I believe charting is great in calculating share price movements, because so many people use it, it's self fulfilling ! Not sure it applies to a fundamentally weak economies such as South Africa. In my opinion barring a disaster, i suspect that by mid March 2017, we will be looking at 90p plus, clearly early sales in January will be crucial to longer term price. November and December runs should be using normal mine extract, the Sept and Oct period should see the last of the low grade stockpile.? Regards Tanelorn