Member Info for TandH

In the General Chat topic areas, is it possible to show the latest post first? i.e. if you look under Indices at the FTSE topic I created, it takes ages to trawl through the pages to see the latest post, as the page you are first shown shows the oldest posts. Grateful for a tweak in the system if poss to change it round. Thanks

Not been around for a while (swine flu followed by complications - sick for about a month!), anyway better now and wanting to wish you all a ......... HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL :0) TandH

Well the slow tumble looks to have started these last coupla days, so I'm relieved for all of you who are heavily short - phew! None of us on here have understood why on earth the markets have got so giddy and indeed the economic indicators were all more or less showing consist "less bad" improving figures BUT..........then out pops a duff "Chigago PMI! The fugures went back into "contraction" land again. Then the mortgage apps figure looked good at first glance, but the narrative showed how dire it really was... i.e. huge numbers applying but not completing due to finances not being able to be sorted etc. and these folk trying again for another house later down the line will make the figs look dishonestly healthy (i.e. they're duplicates!). The ISM Manufacturing yesterday and the Jobless claims, both missed expectations...........is this all a "blip" or a more serious stall I wonder? All eyes on the Non farm payrolls then! Good luck all :0)

A very valid point Monaco. There is also something called "emergency claims" in the US and these are escalating (over 3mill at present)plus the US Government announced recently that claimants can have a 13 week extension in various States (published yesterday)so I presume that will bump up existing claims numbers?

Sorry! I'm chatting nonsense! Re' the money market funds comment, I meant the FED is mulling over exiting from various stimulus by possibly borrowing money from money market funds! Sorry again Anyway heres the article from CNBC at the point a moment ago when the markets turned negative - http://www.cnbc.com/id/33001115

Update! The US futures did indeed creep upwards after the slightly better than expected jobs claims numbers and........so did the FTSE - how predictable!! However......Existing Home Sales worse than expected and just going to watch a developing story that the FED may well be exiting from some money market funds.....US markets open and now gone negative and so has the FTSE!! Markets are looking slightly wobbly to me at the moment. Anyway, going to watch these stories on CNBC!

Some great comments - Dow pulled back fairly sharply at reaching 9900 last night, the sell-off in the last hour brought it back down 150+ points-ish off 9900 level to 9748. I was intrigued to see a CNNC Strategist present the theory I've been subscribing too that the Dow would pop to 10000, then pull back, but I wonder if 9900 is about as high as it can muster? The Fed has indicated that although now is not the time to withdraw stimulus etc., they are now saying that the recession is probably over, so I think the DOW pulled back at the last minute as investors/traders probably began to worry that stimulus, buying treasuries etc. etc. may well stop sooner rather than later? I quote the DOW alot as the FTSE seems to blindly meander after it so much! Let's see what the US unemployment numbers are like this aft - I know folk say it's a lagging indicator but traders will only take so much of these big numbers being added to the dole queues.........sooner or later we have to expect the numbers to begin to calm and to reduce. If it's a crap number this aft, the shorts might get a little more relief. If not, it is possible that the DOW (and so the FTSE) might try to climb a little again....but I'm beginning to think the market has reached as high as it can for now. Hope we're all right!

Triple witching day is here, so wonder if volatility will finally begin? But as I write, the FTSE, DAX, CAC all hovering in the green again!!! I really feel for those of you with the shorts - I got burnt badly last time I was in the markets, hence I've spent the last few months watching all the news flow and looking at the market reactions and I can only agree with Monaco, that this market is on steroids. Something needs to break the momentum and/or spook the markets again and I wonder if that might be something in the banking sector (they have still not offloaded their toxic assets, the Governments are still supporting them and trying to impose control on bonuses and the like, but the banks are getting back to their old ways and in my view, that's the very way that broke the back of the global economy............this is why I wonder if there will be a shock or too down the road. At the moment, I still think the fund managers are carrying on "having to invest" cos they missed the rally and this helps keep and build the momentum trade. If the retail investors keep to form and pile in at these ridiculously high levels, this continues momentum further. Other than minor pull backs, I do now wonder if the DOW will have to reach 10000 before theres a real pull back? All just my opinion, but what have any of us got in this market but opinion? Theres certainly no fundamental sense to it!

Hi All - some useful commentary as always. I'm with you guys really - basically I think the momentum trade is winning the day over fundamentals on the FTSE (and the DOW, S&P to some extent too)and like KIS, think this could have a bit further to run (maybe as into Oct/Nov as suggested) then feel "reality" will set in again - the "less bad" news flow will loose it's appeal and investors/traders will need to see good news. This "less bad" being enough, has had too long a run in my view. Companies earnings have looked better as analysts have lowered expectations, thus companies have beat on the earnings front, and of course they've all been cost cutting. When the analysts start to up earnings expectations and companies have done all the cost cutting they can, I don't think earnings will look attractive. I am not confident to go short at the moment, but if the FTSE does climb much more (above 5150-5200 maybe) I may go in for a short. Likewise, if the FTSE droppped to around 4750ish, I may take a long position - all else being equal of course (i.e. no major news hitting the market)

Not been on LSE for an age as I can't seem to recognise any names now, but looking through today and thought I'd have a look at the FTSE chat room that I set up over a year ago and was really pleased to see a whole bunch of the "old originals" still chatting :0) Hope everyone is well and not been stung too much in these strange markets. I have stayed well out of the markets for a while because as one pundit said "the market is on medication" and I agree - steriods I think.........Have no idea why the FTSE is at this level and think it's well overbought but the momentum trade is still winning the day at the moment. Any thoughts on a pull back? Does anyone still think there will be one ever? lol!

Not checked all the youtube links on here but pleased to find some old names back as I haven't seen many on the shares chatboards for a while now and so must confess, haven't really been using LSE. Onto the current FTSE rally..........I have always been a novice with charting and tend to use simple indicators such as Bollinger bands, trading ranges, RSI and volume indicators. From looking at these, I have been looking for a serious break upwards through 3950ish with a view to if we get a pop to about the 4150 level, I would consider a short. Not sure how accurate this approach is and of course, one has to be ever mindful of the news, particularly around the Geitner plans and the economic newsflow. The US has had a handful of decent bits of economic newsflow this last few days (i.e. retail sales, CPI, housing starts etc.) - not fab, but better than expected. It's not really been the same here. so I wonder how much the FTSE will lift further with the momentum of the Dow and the S&P or how our own generally crappy newsflow might hold the FTSE back? Anyway, I'll check back in here hoping to see some thoughts and views on the current rally!

well I'll talk to myself - lol! Was right in my views that the FTSE rise could not last...........now wondering whether to go long at some point but not sure where this downward flow will end..........sub 4200.....???lower?? Anybody else here? Wheres the usual indices crowd??

Happy New Year to All! Anyone thinking of shorting the FTSE soon?? I am wondering how high the usual new year optimism will take the FTSE/DOW etc. before theres a wobble back down a bit........4650 looks a level to watch - if we get through that with any vigour, I'll wait a bit before shorting, but depending on news flow etc. etc., I may short the FTSE soon - not sure yet! I think the coppper price is lifting the miners and the oilers are getting lifted due to the Gaza and Russia/Gazprom issues and as these are a big portion of the FTSE we are seeing a lift. Also seeing Industrials put on some meat and the Retailers following todays Deb and Next updates, but I don't think this optimism can last....... Any views out there?

Ray69 Like you rightly say volatility has shot through the roof lately - my advice is that it's not the right time to get into trading the indices unless you have been following them for at least 2 months solid (preferably much longer........) - you really need to understand what makes the markets shift and these last few weeks have proved very difficult... Excuse me if I'm teaching granny to suck eggs (I don't know your experience in these matters) but watch the Citigroup story and the the big 3 US automakers story as these are real market movers at the moment. In my view, Paulson caused the last market slide as he changed the terms of the TARP and the Obama phenomenon created a little rally at the end of last week as he announced a favourable replacement treasury secretary. The markets may bounce a little more when he announces his whole economic team but watch the Citigroup and US Automaker spokes in the ironworks and the jobless claims........they were bad last week and even though folk reckon these markets have this doom priced in, I'm still not so sure. When the markets have been bouncing along the bottom for some time and it stops reacting to bad news and the banks begin lending againing, I would view that as a safe time to go long but it's all about entry levels and you need to watch the markets everyday to accertain those! As for me - I'm on the sidelines at the moment for all the reasons above! Suggest others do the same :0)

Hi all We really should use this more....I set the bloomin' thing up but I keep forgetting it's here - lol! Anyway just checking in to give my ten pennenth as obviously the Dow, S&P and FTSE have all slid last coupla days......watching non-farm payrolls data today, thinking if the numbers are bad, the markets may freefall again and might be a good time to go long! Not sure yet as ya have to watch these markets every minute as any bit of news sways 'em. Think the falling oil price is no longer helping the indices as folk pile out of the oil shares and also out of commodity and mining plays as they fall along with oil, so don't feel oil etc. is so much of a factor now as it was a few weeks ago :0)

We're not posting much in here at the mo are we? I guess we're all completely consfused by this market - for every one person you talk too who thinks it's bottomed and we're on the way up, there will be an opposite view that we've further down to go. We've pulled back sharply these last coupla days from the latest rally and I agree with Rod about the sub 5000 level - I think it would take another major bank failure to go through this point, soooo......waiting... watching.... trying to guage the current trading levels at not really getting anywhere at the mo! Lol

Not posted on here for a bit because I've been mulling over which way I think the FTSE is going! Up until 2 days ago, I thought we had quite a bit of upside left.....but my current thoughts are that 5470 ish looks like a bit of a technical resistance level as I've seen quite a severe bounce back off from this point a couple of times now. I have not checked a chart but just observed the levels by watching each day :0) Now wondering whether to go back to my original strategy of waiting for blips up, then shorting the FTSE again for small profs on the way down, then wait for the blip up again and so on and so forth!

rod - think your first description could be right! "Not gone".....but I hope not of course! US equities taking a right pasting again tonight :0(

Hi Ramborai - sorry I've only just seen your posts today! I've basically been trading the FTSE every day this last few days, taking a few quid here and then always on short positions. I judge how the day is going, then when theres been a decent rally, I'll stick a short on and take small profits. Not been a bad strategy!

Thanks heavens for FTSE short hedge positions on days like this..........