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I hope you're right, Trincan, and that everything will be alright by the end of 2027, especially if the Big Boys get involved.

Do things seem to be accelerating in the professional sphere, both in oil and finance?

OK,

~$680M–$995M today to potentially $5.3B–$8.1B for $12 million drilling costs is a good deal,

but will likely require work until the end of 2027 or mid-2028 given the usual delays of junior oil and gas companies.

SC3/$20 million annual return will cover this, and subsequent projects SC4 and others also,

plus a partial deal with reimbursement of the $24 million already committed + cash.

Still fully invested!

Comments, I like the $5 billion one-:))

==>

7 hours ago

Thank you very much, Keith

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Adventurous_House_27

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3 hours ago

So… spending about $12 to $15 million to prove reserves worth over $5 billion?

I like those numbers!

Thanks, Keith.

V

I had to remove 3 lines of text in the middle,

which allows the copy-paste to be done in 2 steps,

otherwise the system crashes.

When these assets are converted to certified 2P Reserves (proved + probable), the applicable discount to NPV10 drops sharply, and the pipeline proximity becomes a concrete, bankable value driver:

Component Reserve status Estimated 2P Recoverable NPV10 per Bcf Market discount to NPV10 Implied value

Conv. Prospective → 2P Reserves Drilled & appraised ~700–850 Bcf ~$4.5–5.5M/Bcf 15–25% ~$2.4B–$3.6B

Conv. Contingent → 2P Reserves Development sanctioned ~400–450 Bcf ~$4.5–5.5M/Bcf 10–20% ~$1.4B–$2.0B

Shale → 2P Reserves (if regulated) Drilled, regulatory clarity ~1,050–1,200 Bcf ~$2.0–3.0M/Bcf 20–30% ~$1.5B–$2.5B

The conventional gas uplift from Prospective Resource to 2P Reserves is particularly striking — value could increase 8–12x on the conventional prospective component once the geological risk is resolved and development costs are confirmed.

Summary

The total pre-reserves value range of ~$680M–$995M reflects the heavy geological and regulatory risk discounts applied to resource that has not yet been confirmed by drilling. The number that will matter most to a buyer or JV partner is the contingent resource component (~$500M–$625M), because the geological risk has largely been resolved.

The shale component, despite being the largest by volume at 1.5 TCF, contributes the least current value precisely because Morocco has no established regulatory framework for shale gas development. This is the single most important de-risking action that Predator could take — working with ONHYM to establish a clear legal and fiscal regime for the shale component would likely double or triple its current transaction value even before a drill bit turns.

The post-reserves uplift is dramatic — from ~$680M–$995M today to potentially $5.3B–$8.1B — which illustrates why exploration and appraisal drilling carries such asymmetric value. The 10-year CIT holiday is genuinely material to that uplift; it means the first decade of cash flows are essentially royalty-only burden, which compresses payback periods and improves NPV significantly relative to comparable assets in higher-tax jurisdictions.

Volumetric assumptions will be updated when 1/ Updated ITRs are released, and 2/When MOU-6 is completed.

In order to convert Prospective & Contingent Resources into Reserves, the following will be necessary:

* Drill & flow test MOU-6 ($3M?)

* Sidetrack & flow test MOU-2 ($3M?)

* Frack & flow test MOU-3 & MOU-4 ($2M each?)

* Unknown work on MOU-1 ($2M?)

* Agreement on regulatory environment for shale gas.

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7h ago

KeithOzonReddit

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Guercif Valuation, current status and as Reserves

Valuation of onshore natural gas resource, Guercif Basin, Morocco.

Assumptions.

1.0 TCF Prospective Resource, conventional gas.

0.5 TCF Contingent Resource, conventional gas.

1.5 TCF Prospective Resource, unconventional (shale) gas.

Component Valuations

Component 1: 1.0 TCF Conventional Prospective Resource

This is undrilled, unappraised resource — the highest-risk category. The valuation methodology is: risked NPV10 × market discount.

Working assumptions: 20% geological CoS → expected recoverable ~200 Bcf net. At $10/Mcf wellhead, less 5% royalty, less ~$2/Mcf development and operating cost, less the 10-year CIT holiday (effectively zero tax in early years, ~25% thereafter), a rough NPV10 per Bcf of risked recoverable resource is approximately $3–4M/Bcf. Applied to 200 Bcf risked volumes: NPV10 of risked resource ~$600M–$800M. The market would apply a further 65–75% discount to undrilled prospective resources. Implied transaction value range: ~$150M–$280M ($0.15–$0.28/Mcf of stated prospective resource, or $0.75–$1.40/Bcf of expected recoverable on a risked basis).

Component 2: 0.5 TCF Conventional Contingent Resource

This is discovered but not yet commercial — it has been found, de-risked geologically, but not declared as reserves pending development decision, economics confirmation, or regulatory approval. The 5km pipeline proximity is a meaningful value driver here, as it lowers the development capex materially. A buyer would apply a 50–60% discount to NPV10 for contingent resources. At $10–11/Mcf price, ~$2/Mcf development cost, royalty and (tax-sheltered) net cashflows, NPV10 of full development approximates $4–5M/Bcf fully de-risked. Applying a 50% contingent discount: implied transaction value ~$500M–$625M ($1.00–$1.25/Mcf of stated contingent resource).

Component 3: 1.5 TCF Shale Gas Prospective Resource

This carries a substantial additional regulatory discount on top of the standard prospective resource risk. Morocco has been studying the development of unconventional resources to decrease its reliance on hydrocarbon imports. Until Morocco enacts a clear shale gas regulatory framework equivalent to the Hydrocarbon Code, a buyer must assume material timeline and permitting risk . The prospective resource geological CoS may also be lower than for conventional (15–25% typical). Applying: 20% CoS → 300 Bcf risked volumes; regulatory/timeline discount of 60–70% on top of the standard 65–75% prospective discount; plus higher development cost (~$5–7/Mcf for Moroccan shale vs ~$2/Mcf conventional). Implied transaction value: ~$30M–$90M ($0.02–$0.06/Mcf of stated prospective resource) — reflecting that a buyer is essentially paying option value on a play with no establishe

Thanks Wraith,

"several hundred BCFs on Mou 5 which could extend over a much larger area"

"Export to Europe"

Better than just seeing her sleeping at 3:20/3:30 -:))

558 millions

SC-3/CM

In yesterday's accounts, the discounted NAV is £67 million = 12 pence per share. This implies a basis of 588 million shares.

This should be recalculated on 830, or even better, on 980 fully diluted = 8 pence per share.

In any case, it will be even better with SC-4 and the subsequent TT.

Here we can see the costs of liquefying US methane, adding the cost of transporting the LNG carrier and the liquefaction process to Europe. This provides a point of comparison, among others, for the export price of Guercif methane, which will be very well positioned in any case given its low operating expenses (opex) and capital expenditures (capex), 10-year tax-free period, and low transport costs. A compelling selling point that the buyer is already aware of.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Woodside-Struggles-to-Secure-Buyers-for-US-LNG-as-Pricing-Backfires.html

No problem,

I can wait as long as it takes,

until the full geological reality, 160 million years old at its deepest point, is revealed.

The post accusing KO of disparaging He1's management has disappeared.

But several people here must have taken a screenshot.

So this is what the forum used to look like.

I completely agree with you, Mr. Musil.

After some initial disappointment with the RNS,

I'm more than happy that Prd is returning to the fundamentals of the Triassic:

"MOU-5 is being considered for side tracking to both potential Jurassic reservoirs up dip, and to the Triassic."

Too bad for Paul,

he'll be stuck in the desert for two more years -:))

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Wall-Street-Giants-Circle-Shells-15-Billion-LNG-Canada-Stake.html

No doubt about it,

Paul loves suspense-:))

Warning, it causes gas

109.3

109.6

123.8

We will all testify to your actions over many years here:

insults, threats, lies, and disinformation against the presidency of Prd and the members of this forum, both current and former.