Member Info for sweepydog2

As people on this board will have noticed I don't put my faith in charts though I admit they can give valuable signals. This is because they will deal with the run of the mill but they cannot forecast for example AM resigning and the effect of that on the SP. So what do I put my trust in: facts. Not alternative facts but facts. Mostly facts which if the BoD embroider they go down for a long stretch. In short facts which have consequences if not borne out. So what do we really know about FBT 1. They are in no danger of going bust in the next 2 years; they have cash in the bank. 2. Focus is now on sales and they are preserving a good margin. 3. They have at least one/two major customers coming to a decision by the beginning of May 2017. A major problem should have been highlighted by now or merited a comment in the Update recently published. 4. Avid who are a major rival appear to be in trouble. Auditors do not postpone the publication of US results without reason. To do so is a death wish. So there is something that is causing real angst to them. Are AVID sales now in free fall? That doesn't mean they are going to FBT just that Avid are not getting renewals. When new tech comes in nobody gets a prize for locking in the old stuff so why not wait? Is cash flow / going concern now in play? Given there are no other new players is FBT so disruptive to existing markets that it is the source of the underlying problem - I don't know - but it could be so. 5. Schroders are persistent sellers but recent press coverage suggests they may not be as good as they were. If I were an investor in a fund that sold about 7m shares and then discovered they could have been sold for 5 x the price a couple of months on I would be looking at US lawyers to pursue a class litigation. I hope Schroders have good lawyers as they may well need them if FBT performs. 6. There seem to be a whole load of people who will mark down FBT. But at least 2p of the present price is cash. So they must think that Forscene, EVA and Captevate are stinkers. Well that may be so but let them spell out in simple terms why they think so. FBT is a small company. To have come this far is remarkable. They are not vulnerable to an opportunistic bid as SS and one other shareholder have 50%+. It just needs patience and not letting the MMs sweat out the PIs

decision to postpone it's conference call on the Q4 results it appears that the vultures are circling. On 17/03 the first of the lawyers posted for potential litigants - https://www.bgandg.com/avid. Of course it may just be that the auditors Deloitte & Touche need to tie up some loose ends in which case the market will recover but the PR did not really give a reason or a timescale for resolution or whatever the problem is. So FBT is not alone in seeing a drop in it's SP but it has rising sales, cash in the bank and two shareholders who together control its future. I know where I want to be invested.

Dear jimbobtechstock, Apparently so. The market was/is obviously looking for more than Allenby had in their Research Paper even though presumably they had privileged access to what the company expected to happen in all the variations. Things, however, have moved on so what transpires from the PoC is probably now rather more important: one contract would be good, two would be stunning.

Just to note that the Allenby Research note had as Option 1 Group sales of £1,016K for 2016 as compared with the £1,007K recently published. From a totally different mix of product sales of course but isn't that always so in small companies. For 2017 Option 1 invoiced sales was £2,729K which ought to be B/E or better. Here's hoping

12 sales today at an average size of 3741, 23 buys at an average of 26407. So in my book the buys have it and perhaps the tide is turning

The current SP appears to be driven by the markets focus on sales delivered in the year rather than sales invoiced. Where contracts spread over the year end this is always a problem. Accountants don't want to recognise profits where the work to earn them is still to be done so they create deferred income accounts... one side effect of which is to defer the potential tax charge until the period when the services are actually delivered. BUT sales invoiced are effectively cash in the bank unless the customer goes bust so FBT will see the benefit in due course. I have to admit to being a tad disappointed by the turnover figures but they are moving in the right way and 59% real growth is something FBT hasn't seen before I think. All this is without the BBC/?. My understanding is that Forscene could cut 400 jobs at the BBC which though regrettable in human terms is very real cost saving. With the oncosts it will run into millions so the FBT income could easily be £1M plus from this one contract if signed. Put that into the current price which has 2p in cash backing it and anybody not buying looks simple minded or cash strapped. I cannot make up my mind if Schroders are still selling though recent press comment on their performance suggests that they may have lost the plot i.e. they are supposed to make money for their investors before taking a slice for themselves soI suppose I shouldn't be surprised. The alternative is that the MMs have their own agenda and are trying to shake out PIs.

about what is short term investing. In the UK it appears to be 1 day to 6 months. Medium is from 6 mths to 4 years and long term 4 years+. In my experience dealing with inward investment Germany 4 years ends at 5 years and in Japan at about 10 years. Enough said. The market reaction appears to be shaking out short and medium term holders. Disappointing as there was significant progress reported but to be expected with no news about the PoC. With reservations about the management of what is a very small AIM company I still think the product is a world beater. They need to concentrate on SALES and CASH. DM's only role is to ask "Is this in the plan? Does it forward the plan? What is it's cash/ profit contribution?" Anything else is totally irrelevant to his role. FBT needs to get to B/E asap and anything else is an unaffordable luxury. I know. I've been there. It's very taxing. And it teaches you to focus.

as I tend to see my glass half empty. Yes there are very encouraging signs here but then the curates egg had those. What worries me is the cash because businesses go bust for lack of cash and nothing else. If you have cash you survive. Here FBT has £3.7M in the bank at 31/12/2017. They raised about£3M in the second placing almost all of which net of fees should still have been in the bank so without it, and having had an earlier placing in 2016, they would have had about £700K in the bank.... not more than 3 mths at the usual burn rate. As we have seen from the published figures an invoiced sale is not necessarily immediately recognised as part of the service may not be delivered until the next financial year(s). I am sure that there is a lot in the pipeline but being Eeyore I do wonder if they will need another placing before they really get there. The last placing was very well timed but the results will have to be an order of magnitude(s) greater to get a placing which is good for PIs away in the future. Sorry to rain on our picnic!

On these figures it's likely to be late 2019 before they break even on invoiced sales and even so cashflow could be in trouble because of the deferred sales though I hope not with additional sales. They really desperately need a BBC deal and two or three other large contracts... otherwise they will just be another AIM stock: long on promises short on performance.

It's certainly odd timing. The "properties" button is showing that the test site was created today. I don't think I've ever seen FBT put something up over the weekend. Presumably it must be linked in some way to tomorrow otherwise why couldn't it wait?

is why when we are so close to knowing the out turn for 2016 the sellers are effectively betting on a very poor performance. I'm old fashioned so when I by I actually own the shares and vice versa when I sell. BUT I can't hep thinking there is something more going on here and with other AIM stocks too. So if they think FBT is a good bet long term, why not sell the stocks you own in very large quantities... depressing the price... and presumably lowering the cost of a call option. If they think it's a donkey why not well out now? But if it's a buy they get a small loss for a very large reward. Bonker you know far more than I do but can you think of any other explanation why investors would sell when what we have very good reason to believe a better performance than last year that will push the share price up? PS Disclosure: I am a long term holder and currently have 400,000 shares

To put it in context FBT has over 14% of the MMs authorised by the London Stock Exchange at the end of December 2016. Looks like the proverbial plague of locusts that troubled Pharaoh!

It appears that the obvious risk has been left out: Trump presses the nuclear button to take out Korea and everybody else. The list of downside risks displayed here would probably stop anybody investing in anything. Are they speaking to the Russians? If they deny it, can we believe them? I'll just hold on in there until actual news is published.

In the real world BoDs deal with risk. The successful ones seek to limit the downside risk of their decisions. They are well aware that there are risks they cannot control and risks they don't even know about but where they can they de-risk. If the BBC decide to work month to month what happens if another news gathering organisation (I can think of several) recognises their vulnerability and buys FBT? 30 days notice of termination of service, BBC staff already cut down, no quick fix in sight. I don't think this is an acceptable risk when all that is required is a simple contract.... possibly for three years rolling to give time to react to events.

Shylock I'm surprised that you think that where big money/ long term contracts are involved things get left to limp on. "Paying" - but at what price, with what support and for how long? Any delay suggests very sloppy management and certainly in the business I was Chairman of such under performance would affect pay reviews adversely. All parties know the deadline so they have no excuse at all for not getting things settled in a timely fashion. I would be very surprised if draft legal paperwork was not already being passed around for all sides to consider.

... and unusually the two parties trialling the product are paying normal rates for it! As relevant staff at the BBC are consistently showing a proficiency with Forscene on their CVs the betting odds must be on this arrangement becoming permanent. The major US corporation (presumed to be AAPL but could be another) hasn't released anything concerning its involvement but there has been quite a bit of circumstantial evidence, including film, and it appears that SS has been working on this himself. But nothing is certain until contracts are signed. Personally I doubt that the BBC/? will let it go to the wire as that could cause a real timing problem for their continued use of the service. Even the best law firms like more than 24 hrs to tie up contracts.

of buyers. Not surprising as about 2.5p of the price should be represented by cash.

I don't think we'd ever get this information. If you look at the number of contracts subject to and RNS in 2016, discount the 1 that specifically says that it is worth less than 10% of turnover, take the numbers to accrue fairly evenly over the year and allow for some smaller gains and some wastage the annual turnover should be between £1.2M and £1.4M. Not enough to break even in 2016 but suggesting that it might be very close in 2017. Anything more than my higher figure would indicate that they are now really flying.

Ilika~Sharp of Oxford joint interview at Ilika's premises: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wimplsKEJU