📉 Rebuttal to Testpack3: Misleading Maths and Backwards Logic 📊1 Jun 2025 21:10
In a recent post, @Testpack3 stated:
“For a 12p share price, the Market Cap would be 4.5B x 12p = £540M. PHE would have to make £36M EBITDA per year… so we need 36 DMG units if each makes £10M turnover. Therefore, it’ll take 15 years for the company to grow into that valuation.”
This sounds impressive, but it's an absolute analytical fallacy, built on outdated assumptions, misapplied valuation metrics, and a deliberate attempt to confuse retail holders. Here’s why this is total rubbish:
🔻 1. PHE Is Not a Legacy OEM — It’s a Modular Licensing Platform.
Testpack3 tries to model PHE like an old-school manufacturer that must build, fund, and operate all its own infrastructure. That’s simply wrong.
✅ PHE earns through licensing, royalties, joint ventures, and Engsolve engineering contracts.
✅ The business is designed to scale modularly, with external project financing via EPCs and partners like NH2.
📌 So his backwards logic — “we need £36M EBITDA from 36 units” — is pure speculation, not grounded in PHE’s actual operating model.
🔻 2. Outdated Cost Assumptions Are a Red Herring.
“The stated cost of the ‘test’ unit at Bridgend was £1M. The Protos Park 20t/day unit was £10M…”
Testpack3 uses the Protos Park failure as a benchmark, even though It was on a different scale and phase. It’s not reflective of PHE’s current FTU design or cost structure. The Bridgend unit was successfully delivered for ~£1M — with no Protos-style issues. This cherry-picking of legacy costs is designed to inflate fear and deflate confidence.
🔻 3. Peer Valuation Shows 12p Is Entirely Achievable
Let’s use real market comparables, not fantasy maths. United H2 Limited (UHL) is set to IPO at a valuation of $(AUD) 80 M+, before any unit deployment.
PHE already has operational validation (FTU), revenue (Engsolve), and licensing-ready IP. Yet PHE trades at ~£30M MCap.
🔻 4. This Isn’t Education — It’s Obfuscation
Testpack3 says: “Hope this helps the ‘newbie’ to PHE and accounts.”
But what it really does is: Present an oversimplified model to seed doubt. Mislead new investors with antiquated numbers. Distract from the real catalysts building beneath the surface, like the UHL/NH2 IPO, FTU success, Avioxx SAF validation, and macro policy momentum.
📌 To newer holders: Don’t be intimidated by financial jargon dressed up as objectivity. When someone quotes “EBITDA” and “P/E” without understanding PHE’s modular and licensing-led model, they’re not educating — they’re manipulating. 🧠 PHE is executing. The market just hasn’t caught up yet. When it does, it won’t ask permission.GLA ✊