RE: My belief1 Mar 2024 17:14
Honestly, no idea on timeframes, I just see support/resistance points and lots of 'if's'. Either:
1. Price does not get above recent high of 582 and is rejected, then the trend line will be broken and price will need support from something like the Weekly 50MA before attempting to break 582 and the weekly 200MA again - which could be June/July 24, or
2. Price breaks 582 and breaks through the weekly 200MA based on move to FTSE100. That surge could well hit 700 on its own before reversing at a point somewhere around the highs of April 2022. If it breaks through the weekly 200MA, it could hit 700 by May. The May results might well be the spark to hit 700, or not, or
3. There was a historic high in April 2022 which reached 604. This could be a sticking point even if price breaks through the weekly 200 MA, so worth watching price action around this level too
Typically price is rejected first time it hits the larger MA's (last time price touched the weekly 200MA was Feb 2020 and it's been kept down since then), so I wouldn't be surprised if it gets pushed back down (look for failed 3rd attempt at around 577) before being supported by the weekly 50 or even 100 MA before breaking through. Equally it could just sail right through it. Positives are that we're in an upward trend with the MACD diverging on the weekly and which crossed the zero line in Jan 2024, and daily shows higher highs and lows.
Could all be BS though if Putin decides to push the big red button.