Member Info for SvenZon

Probably not much in the short term, people are willing to gamble on trade resuming at some point in time and already priced in dilution and discontinuation risk. I think price action would be something like a drop just before suspension as all the 'traders' will try and go for the exit.

Once resumed you will see extreme fluctuation both down and up due to lack of volume and widely different value perception. This is worsened by a lack of a historical price anchor.

The market has been valueing the stock arround 40p since the energy crisis combined with liquidity issue. Now that we know more about the equity raise, which will require that they will raise 100M (74M GBP). We will get atleast 200M new shares, assuming its at huge discount, maybe even 300M new shares. Shouldn't this be trading between 25-30p right now?

Could also be that dilution was already largely priced in ofcourse.

I know the 40p is already undervalued.

Sorry I suck at Math i guess, I actually increased my position by almost double the percentage i mention earlier.

Point is buy more to lower you average purchasing price and thereby improving your ability to create a break-even exit as share prices needs to go up less. Ofcourse doubling down on FXPO also means you can lose more if share price does not recover.

In my case share price did go up by 8 cents as i predicted. So i managed to make a clean exit.

EIE01 well you just simply buy more along the way. I entered at 120p, i think about 2 years in bought some more and lowered my average to 80p. And last week i bought increased my position by 233% in terms of shares at a price of 37p lowering my average price to 45p. Today i sold it all.

After 1,506 days, I finally managed to exit this stock without a loss other than opportunity costs. I kept buying along the way to lower my average price. At the time, my thesis was that the war would end relatively quickly and that the balance sheet was strong enough to survive for atleast several years. Even at liquidation value, the investment seemed reasonable.

However, the VAT issue and legal case turned out to pose a greater threat to FXPO’s survival than the Russian invasion itself.

Despite some positive developments regarding Russia’s motivation to end the war, I fear that a resolution may come too late. I simply cannot envision a truce or peace agreement being reached before FXPO runs out of cash.

While the upside potential remains significant, the downside risk is still too high to justify the current price. I may consider re-entering once there is more clarity around a potential capital raise and the company’s going concern status.

Best of luck to those with the conviction to hold their positions.

17.5p is pretty much its liquidation value. Here they would already sell assets and claims to assets at a massive discount. Hitting 17.5p is simply not realistic. At that point it would simply be more interesting to shut down the company entirely and slowly sell of the assets rather than doing any sort of capital raise.

Hear me out. Ferrexpo might actually be one of the greatest most asymmetric, binary setups out there right now.

At today’s distressed price, the downside looks bad but not horrible. If you take the 2025 H1 balance sheet and apply a harsh liquidation discount. I applied 32%, you end up with roughly 300–320M USD of realizable assets. After settling liabilities, that leaves about 70M USD for equity holders, or roughly 0.09 GBP per share.

So in a worst-case liquidation scenario, you’re looking at recovering maybe 20–25% of your investment, i.e., a 75–80% loss, plus a long wait to see any cash. Not pretty, but at least somewhat bounded.

Now the other side;

There are several binary catalysts that could dramatically re-rate the stock:

(A) Securing financing which removes immediate survival risk. (Besides in the future you could always buy back shares)

(B) VAT receivable resolution which would equal +80M in liquidity

(C) Legal case dropped equals minus $117M in liabilities

(D) End of the war normalization of operations and volumes

If even a couple of these break the right way, you’re no longer looking at a liquidation case but a going concern with meaningful earnings power again.

This stock could under war conditions easily go 300% , and 1000% post war. Yet the downside is 80%.

FXPO has liquidity atleast for the next 2-3 months. The company brings in too many USDs. It is in nobodies interest to let the company fail completely. Not the government and as of right now neighter the bankruptcy court. It will therefore survive.

I would expect a combination of the government paying out part of the VAT in tranches as a lifeline. This would only be a minimum to allow the company to keep operating in order to get those international currencies into the economy. I think in reality the company will be able to operate for atleast another entire year not only 2-3 months.

FXPO should on top of that build in some sort of safety margin, which will probably, mean a capital raise. This isn't great but not as bad as it seems right now.

Even the war end, which will certainly increase share price, simply because FXPO can do more volume it will take a while to get back to old highs. The VAT-issue is still pending and iron pellet price is simply lower

This small break-out reminds me the one of early august. If real steps are made if will drive up share price. However, I would expect that just as last time nothing will be achieved. Atleast not in the short term. So after a couple of weeks price will be back at 50 again, or maybe even way lower if the outcome is negative.

I am suprised too. I guess it was already priced in. I have been an opportunistic investor since the invasion and the lack of a drop is very much welcomed by me as i am at a loss. I, however, expected the price to drop to the low 30s (and hopefully buy more). I don't understand. Ferrexpo is in a horrible situation. With all the risks there is high reward, but with the very existence of Ferrexpo as we know it being at stake. I still feel like the price should be lower to reflect that.