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Hello all, does any have any thoughts on conducting a review of the Mime merger and its affects positive / negative to Kistos.
With PoO looking to be up in the short to Mid term.
Coupled with Norway being a political and SAFE (excluding russian sabotage) location but tax heavy location and the time risk in meeting real start up dates.
19 Apr 2023 07:00
RNS Number : 6690W, Kistos Holdings PLC. 19 April 2023
In particular the 6milion warrants at 365p:
"The consideration for the transaction is US$1 plus the issue of up to 6 million warrants exercisable into new Kistos ordinary shares at a price of 385p each, which represents a premium of 31.4% based on the last trading date prior to this announcement of 293 pence on 18 April 2023"
The actual costs to KISTOS
"US$120MM of Super Senior bonds, which will attract interest of 9.75% per annum, 4.50% of which is payable in cash and 5.25% of which is payable-in-kind in the form of additional Super Senior bonds. The maturity date of the Super Senior bonds is 17 September 2026.
o US$105MM of so-called "MIME02" bonds, which will attract an interest rate of 10.25% payable-in-kind. The maturity date of the MIME02 bonds is 10 November 2027.
· The Mime debt being retained by Kistos or retired by Mime, less Mime's cash balances at 31 March 2023 and less the tax refund due in December 2023, equates to approximately US$111MM"
*NOTE SEE ALSO addtional warrants below on production related warrents
The reduction in payment to Mime ( no production , 500,000 Bbl, before the expected Jotan FPSO of August 2024).
" A contingent payment of US$45MM will be made to the MIME02 bondholders in the event 500,000 bbl (gross) have been offloaded and sold from the Jotun FPSO by 31 December 2024. This will decline to $30MM from 1 January 2025 to 28th February 2025, to US$15MM from 1 March 2025 to 31 May 2025, and to zero thereafter.
· If 500,000 bbl (gross) has not been offloaded and sold from the Jotun FPSO by 31 May 2025, the holders of Mime's Nordic Bonds will be allocated up to 2.4 million warrants exercisable into Kistos ordinary shares at a price of 385p each. The warrants can be exercised between 30 June 2025 and 18 April 2028. *Simultaneously, up to 1.9 million of the 5.5 million warrants issued as consideration for the Mime shares will be cancelled"
Any comments?
Baring in mind Mime / Kistos has 10% of expected production estimated once started up 15,000 boe/d
"Mime's share of production from Balder and Ringhorne is expected to be over 2,000 boe/d in 2023. This will increase significantly once the Balder X project is onstream, with production for the enlarged Group expected to be over 15,000 boe/d in 2025 once the Jotun FPSO is onstream"
Sft Note: ref RNS for full details
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KIST/agreement-to-acquire-mime-petroleum-as-c13cei2hsof4xtr.html
Note Last up date on Jotun
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/fpso-nearing-completion-but-changes-made-to-north-sea-oil-p
I have bottled it, and exited my 20k. Only 5% profit but it has been my concern (previous posts) that the Iraqi goverment could protract the negotiations to undermine Kurdish finances. With the focus shifting to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan PL It satisfies Turkey/Iraq relations and also squeezes the Kurds financially (reducing autonomy aspirations) and helping to push through Turkey stance on the PKK.
It maybe the US may support the Iraqi Kurds but as others have said with the Rusdians having a investment in the Kurdish PL It all looking a bit too fragile for me now.
GLA LTH.
Rgds Sft
Looks like the day traders have won the day again.
Rise on bed n ISA ?
OR
If the recent rise was down to any good news on meetings and near term has retrenched following conformations that the Kurdish PL has confirmed competition from the repairs to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan PL
It looks like it will be down to the US to assist the Kurds in getting theirs opened now.
I must admit I did not think ( totally missed) the Kirkuk-Ceyhan as the under cut. Turkey / Iraq with out US help have the Kurds over a barrel (forgive the pun).
Rgds Sft
Question for clarity and HELP?
Presently I see there are only 2 pipelines present from Iraq
1 is the "Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline, also known as the Iraq–Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline"
This is the pipeline that carrys the disputed Kurdish /Turkey payments...correct?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Ceyhan_Oil_Pipeline
2 is the pipeline Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline that has been shut down since 2003 and runs into Syria
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Baniyas_pipeline
Is there another pipeline that Iraq is reportedly repairing that avoids Kurdistan supply's? I only see the Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline and Turkey have stated they have made their repairs and its ready to restart ONCE the disputes are resolved.
Note i have found that there has been other pipelines talked about that could go into Jordan and Saudi but they have not been built correct?
Clarity from more informed posters would be greatly appreciated.
Rgds Sft
Looking at Simpley Wall Street latest report, I think the long term assement is starting to look very favourable...
Ref drilling update:
https://youtu.be/1cwCIkKFFR4?feature=shared
Rgds Sft
Hi WT, it seems to have settled, are you thinking a labour victory would be the catalyst to push it down further I.e. with implications of deeper taxation.
I can not see anything else other than lowering of gas prices? Or do you see any other weakness that I am missing?
The company has cash, generative production and potential for growth in future. True why has it not picked up, what are we not seeing. Again it is now morning onto a different less "clean" company, possibly not as future sell able as Rock Rose I.e. no buyers for the non green mish mash?
Rgds Sft
Rgds Sft
IMO a lot hinges on confirming the completion of the upgrade of the Joutun FPSO, which was reported 90% complete and that first oil is now anticipated to be the end of Q4 2024.
More info: https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/kistos-holdings--kist/balder-field-operational-update/8034320
WFT has been crippling to the gas only strategy, the TotalEnergies Benairch duster and the shift to oil (destroyed the green ish policy) have all been very detrimental to AA old stratagem and possible undermined some of his ii investors??
Still AA is still trying with the purchase of the storage facility, but is kistos going to be as sellable as Rock Rose was?
Challenge for AA and the team for sure but what a sp drop!! It does look a reasonable risk presently, it just may take some time mabe Q2/Q3 2024 for a lift in anticipation of Balder production unless AA can find another rabbit from the hat?
GLA
Rgds Sft
Also, although having recognised the turn against the AKP, Erdogan has reiterated his commitment to regaining fiscal improvement in his statement but included in his main foreign policy statement is to deny the Kurds in gaining an independence foot hold in Syria. So it still demonstrates a dependence on the Iraqi Kurds supporting such and that is a clear indicator on what will be the conditions layer down in the pipeline negotiations. The Iraqi Kurds reaming between a rock and a hard place.
How much influence the US have (or want to have) in the region and their support for the Iraq Kurds remain to be seen.
As before, are Turkey and the Iraq goverment feeling free to squeeze freely and how do the kurds keep unity against such.
I am not so sure on how they could go it alone once the "contract" expires. Difficult senario for them.
All imo limited opinion.
Rgds Sft
Uncertainty in Turkey, none the less Erdogan is around for a while yet (2028) and the country needs income revenue that an OPEN and flowing pipeline desperately add to.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/13/turkey-erdogan-elections-istanbul-ankara-local-akp/
Rgds Sft
With this link to the drilling company Star Vally drilling
https://starvalleydrilling.ca/morocco/
Rgds Sft
Not sure if this has been posted previously:
Cosworld Energy Limited
The company said it had signed a rig deal with Star Valley Drilling, for the 101 rig, on its onshore Loukos licence. Chariot expects to begin its first two-well campaign around the end of the first quarter this year, it said.
https://twitter.com/cosworldenergy/status/1754837865580646419
Link to company: https://www.cosworldenergyconsult.com/
That's all I can find
Rgds Sft
The increase in LNG should possibly not be read in isolation, especially if you expand the reading and logic.
"US gas producers shrug off low prices, bet on LNG boom..."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-us-gas-producers-shrug-off-low-prices-bet-lng-boom-2024-03-22/
Always DYOR
Rgds Sft
Interesting article: for a new era in LNG supply, what will all this building have on long term pricing?
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/south-korean-shipbuilder-wins-1-8-billion-contract-for-8-lng-vessels/?utm_source=offshoreenergytoday&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_2024-03-27
Rgds Sft
I still belive its all down to investor trust on management, finance, coupled with risk.
It leaves us speculators.
Still find it very very interesting regarding our last two 6% ers, maybe as whimax (I think) proposed that covelis may have exited their 3% of 6% but that must have been removed by now so if there is no TR1 on a reduction that must only leave private investors OR not declaring a change in ownership, the risk of a fine for such could be minimal. I do not know how strictly this requirement is monitored or enforced? By the financial services authorities?
Not that it really affects the very potential positive of a successful onshore drilling campaign, but really clarity is required by the management of liquidity. That imo would as ever help.
GLA
Rgds Sft
"i hope chariot can proceed with development on their own without loan and without partner"
You ask a good and relevant question there Suresh, I wonder who can confirm, speculate or guess for us?
We have some experinced oil men on here maybe BDC, IICB, Bold or Jimmy could "confirm"?
Latest speculation / guess was secure a loan against assets, I think?
Rgds Sft