ITM and Ceres flying today, should see a little afternoon rally. I noticed we had a seller this morning dropping 100,000 at a time. The fact it’s stopped even though it’s a higher price than they sold for (30.0p) makes me think they have now offloaded what they wanted to
I really think that the next six months we are going to see this shift back to the 60-70p range even without sales. April 1st no more red diesel, the war will hopefully be over, Biden will bring in climate change money including the 8bn for hydrogen all in the next six months. Then with sales we should move to new highs.
It’s a great video and starts off straight away ‘when AFC are ready to sell’ there is no rush, buildi g the business ready for huge sales in the future is far more important. I have been watching the news flow of Plug Power over the last month, just to understand the actual market better and they had a turnover of $500m in 2021 with a backlog of orders of $13bn and even in 2025 they plan on turning over only $3bn of it. The market is huge it’s just how many orders can you actually complete. Build ready for the huge wave that is to come in the coming years
Haggis I have too been watching the US market over the last few weeks and can see AFC’s movements (in stock price) are completely controlled by things in the US at the moment. Todays drop was linked to the Fed giving an update on interest rate hikes. They weren’t bad so tomorrow morning AFC will be up. The day before was up because US are handing out $9.5bn in hydrogen incentives. AFC will of course move if they make sales but for now they are just riding the US wave along with all other H2 companies. It’s amazing how little control over prices UK companies have, it’s all about what happens in America
The drop is because 1.30pm America announced the highest inflation rate since 1982 so has a massive impact on all futures stocks. The Nasdaq as a whole has dropped nearly 300 points at around 2pm today.
Looks like we may of found our low abs about to turn back the other way. Last night Biden confirmed he will split up the BBB bill and will put the $500bn for energy in as first priority separately to get it through quicker. This has dived ever since the bill fell apart in early December
N888 the company will be fine, these dips in sector happen, the company don’t go busy because of them or less they need a big fundraise at the time it’s low. If AFC go bust then so do the whole sector. Futures stocks are all tanking, it’s painful to watch the market correction. The price was half of this two years ago and double this last year, we are somewhere in the middle. If you bought at 20p you have held a long time and can wait for the next rise. If you bought at 80p unfortunately you bought when all stocks in this sector were over priced. Personally I think if there had never been a rise in 2020 this is the figure we would be at, awaiting the hydrogen boom. It will come but at the moment it’s out of favour along with pretty much all future stocks. Look at oil at the moment it’s $85 a Barrell which is a 7 year high, this lowers our value…but it doesn’t last forever
Cheers Daz, I thought that may be the case. I guess it’s all peoples own views of potential possible revenue based on what their capacity is once orders flow and how quick they can scale up. Thanks everyone for your thoughts. I think just seeing in the sector with plugpower already turning over $500m in a year before green energy has barely started shows the potential. We don’t talk about the numbers much in detail so thought it was worth asking about valuations etc, cheers for your input haggis /daz
Thanks Haggis, makes more sense. Have AFC ever released a 5 year expected earnings? I haven’t seen one but for such a large MCAP I would think we must be expecting say £40m-£60m turnover in say 5 years. I am not picking on AFC it applies to ITM, Ceres etc but just interested to know views of people that have done this longer than me
ITM has an extremely high MCAP considering it’s turnover too, just wondering if anyone can enlighten me as to why there is such a disconnect between the English and the US valuations compared to revenue. Is it as we are in earlier stages? Or something else?
Junior this is something I have been trying to figure out myself, or less my calculations are wrong (which they could be) that would make our MCAP 100x revenue if we hit £15m and had MCAP of £1.5bn however plug for example is expecting $500m 2021 turnover and an MCAP of $14bn which is 28x revenue. For example with a smaller US company in the sector, FuelCell are expecting $50m turnover and has an MCAP of $1.82bn which is 36x revenue. Is this right?
RE: Extreme E and AFC Energy have agreed marketing rights12 Jan 2022 14:23
Thank it will cause a lot of stress release when we get a few of these leases, just almost as a confirmation they can sell their product and it’s as good as we hope it seems to be. Six months and everyone should be a little more relaxed
RE: Extreme E and AFC Energy have agreed marketing rights12 Jan 2022 13:51
Haggis EXE has been a welcome addition for news that’s for sure and to be honest if it wasn’t for EXE they would of almost been forced to give more publicity themselves otherwise there would of been nothing. None of this has an effect on the technology of course it’s just nice to know what’s going on but do think we are lacking in the PR department, I mean they didn’t even mention the partnership at COP26 until the year end report, surely that’s worth a bit of PR. They may just want to save their money and see it as non Priority to let PI’s know what’s going on but a bit frustrating when you are one of those PI’s.
Chippy I get that and agree if in day November we had a sale for 5 units then another a week later for 5 units the price would of risen but only for a few days then gone back to following the trend of a downward spiral. Would it now be 50p not 40p if we sold we will never know but I feel this board has covered the ‘if we had sales’ so many times over the last three months that if Garonne wants a proper discussion as he says he does, it needs to be on something other than ‘if we had sales’ or ‘AB lies’ as it always ends up the same thread of posters and comments. I personally feel let down with the lack of communication from AFC I have shared in far smaller MCaps that give much more info and Shares in far bigger MCaps that give much more info so both are a lot less stressful than AFC whether they go down or up but I do believe AFC will eventually start selling…when that is who knows
Number how many did you buy back in? All jokes aside if you bought back with the same investment as your 67p sell you must of increased by about 50%. No news won’t last forever so was a good time to trade it. I do think we are at bottom for now, news about green stocks has got to flow again soon. Plug have their results 19/1. Red Diesel stops in April, EXE starts again next month. Our results likely in April and hopefully by then we will be much closer to BBB being agreed. That’s not including anything that AFC deliver in the meantime